NASA: Solar Max Is Finally Here

 

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

 

# 8728

 

My fascination with the sun began more than a half century ago, and it’s all really Dr. Frank Baxter’s fault.   For those of us of a certain age in this country, the Bell Telephone Science Series featuring `Dr. Research’ (Baxter) was our first real introduction to science. 

 

For a nostalgic serving of retro solar science,  OUR MR. SUN  (1956) staring Dr. Frank Baxter and Eddie Albert is available on the Internet Archive.  What this old film lacks in 21st century science, it makes up with charm.

Dr. Research (Frank Baxter)

 

Science, and our understanding of the sun, has grown remarkably over the past half century, but the star at the center of our solar system still holds many mysteries.  Many of my readers are aware that we’ve been waiting . .  and waiting . . .and waiting for the sun’s `11 year-cycle’ to peak to its `Solar Maximum’ for three years.

 

Five years ago, some scientists were predicting one of the strongest Solar Max’s on record by about 2011. 

 

That didn’t happen.  Instead, today - several years later than expected - the sun has finally reached solar maximum, and it is the weakest maximum observed in a century..

First a report from NASA, after which I’ll be back with a bit more:

 

Solar Mini-Max

June 10, 2014:  Years ago, in 2008 and 2009 an eerie quiet descended on the sun.  Sunspot counts dropped to historically-low levels and solar flares ceased altogether.  As the longest and deepest solar minimum in a century unfolded, bored solar physicists wondered when "Solar Max" would ever return.

They can stop wondering. "It's back," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center.  "Solar Max has arrived."

A new ScienceCast video examines the curious Solar Max of 2014.  Play it

Pesnell is a leading member of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a blue-ribbon group of solar physicists who meet from time to time to forecast future solar cycles.  It's not as easy as it sounds. Although textbooks call it the "11-year solar cycle," the actual cycle can take anywhere from 9 to 14 years to complete.  Some Solar Maxes are strong, others weak, and, sometimes, as happened for nearly 70 years in the 17^th century, the solar cycle can vanish altogether. 

Pesnell points to a number of factors that signal Solar Max conditions in 2014: "The sun's magnetic field has flipped; we are starting to see the development of long coronal holes; and, oh yes, sunspot counts are cresting."

(Continue . . .)

 

 

Despite its weak showing, yesterday the sun produced two  X-class solar flares – albeit on the incoming limb of the sun – and not earth directed.  The sun spots responsible for that double-whammy are still flickering with magnetic instability, and will rotate into a geo-effective position over the next couple of days.

Today’s report from NASA references a large CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) in 2012 that - had it been earth-directed- could have caused a great deal of damage.

 

Indeed, this "Mini-Max" has already unleashed one of the strongest storms in recorded history.  On July 23, 2012, a plasma cloud or "CME" rocketed away from the sun as fast as 3000 km/s, more than four times faster than a typical eruption. The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't there. Instead it hit NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft, which recorded the event for analysis.  Researchers now believe the eruption was as significant as the iconic Carrington Event of 1859—a solar storm that set telegraph offices on fire and sparked Northern Lights as far south as Hawaii. If the 2012 "superstorm" had hit Earth, the damage to power grids and satellites would have been significant.

 

Long time readers will remember that I described this `Carrington Event’ in some detail in 2010, and have talked about some of the planning and preparation being done by NASA, the Military, and FEMA  in anticipation of another major solar storm (see NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions).

 

This isn’t science fiction.   Although no one knows when the next major solar flare will head in our direction. It could happen today, or it might not happen for decades.

 

Smaller, but disruptive solar storms have caused serious power outages and communications disruptions in recent decades, including the infamous Quebec power outage of 1989, and a 2003 solar storm that damaged a number of satellites and also caused some power outages in Europe.

 

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

 

In November of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called  "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events).

 

Making their top 10 list (coming in at #7) was:

 

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

 

And last year Lloyds of London issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing is unknowable.

 

While the odds of us seeing a `Carrington Event’ during this upcoming solar maximum are fairly low, they are not zero. Solar flares of this size are predicted to impact earth every 150 years, so  it may be decades before another one comes our way.  

I certainly don’t advocate lying awake at night worrying about solar flares (I certainly don’t!).  But I do believe that we all need to be prepared to deal with a variety of disaster scenarios.

 

The simple truth is, if you are well prepared to deal with an earthquake, pandemic, or a hurricane . . you are automatically in a better position deal with any other disaster, including low probability-high impact events like massive solar storms. 

 

An `All Hazards’ preparedness approach, rather than concentrating on a single perceived threat, is by far the best way to go.

 

Whether you live in the United States, the UK, or anywhere else in the world, you can find good preparedness information at the following links:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And lastly, you may wish to revisit some of my preparedness essays, including:

 

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

NASA: The Approaching Solar Maximum

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

 

# 7543

 

 

Last week several major media outlets carried a story that claimed the earth `narrowly missed’ being hit by a `catastrophic’ solar flare last month.  The story – which described a `Carrington’ class CME – was picked up, and repeated by a number of blogs.

 

And had it been true . . . it would have been quite the story.

 

But according to Spaceweather.com (an excellent resource for space weather data), no such flare erupted from our sun in July, as explained in this FACT CHECK

 

SPACE WEATHER FACT CHECK: Many readers are asking about a report in the Washington Examiner, which states that a Carrington-class solar storm narrowly missed Earth two weeks ago. There was no Carrington-class solar storm two weeks ago. On the contrary, solar activity was low throughout the month of July. The report is erroneous. The possibility of such a storm is, however, worth thinking about: A modern Carrington event would cause significant damage to our high-tech society. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

 

I described the infamous Carrington Event in some detail back in 2010, but briefly:

 

In September of 1859 Richard Carrington, a renowned English astronomer, observed and recorded a tremendous solar flare that – were it to be repeated today – would wreck havoc with our modern electronic infrastructure.

 

This solar storm induced electrical currents in the newly built telegraph grid, shocking operators and starting fires.   Had it occurred today, much of the world’s electrical grid could be fried.

 

Another large (albeit smaller) event took place in 1921, but again, the technology of the day wasn’t terribly vulnerable to the effects of the storm.

 

However, in 1989 a geomagnetic storm fried several large power transformers in Quebec, causing a province-wide blackout.  And in 2003, a number of satellites were severely damaged by an extremely powerful CME which also caused some power outages in Europe.  

 

 

While it may not happen for decades, massive solar flares and CMEs are threats that NASA, FEMA, and other agencies take seriously (see Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA).

 

Last December the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called  "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events).

 

Making their top 10 list (coming in at #7) was:

 

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

 

And this year Lloyds of London issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing is unknowable.

And last year, with the next solar maximum expected in 2013, the UK government updated their National Risk Register For Civil Emergencies to include severe space weather as a national threat (see  UK: Civil Threat Risk Assessment).

severe space weather – Space weather covers a range of different phenomena, including solar fares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle
events. Severe space weather can cause disruption to a range of technologies and infrastructure, including communications systems, electronic circuits and power grids. The ‘reasonable worst case’ for a severe space weather event is based on the so-called Carrington Event in 1859, which saw some of the largest space weather phenomena ever recorded.

 

 

As you can see, this isn’t some esoteric plot device for a cheesy direct-to-DVD Sci-Fi movie, or prophesy driven drivel: space weather is a serious threat than can, and does, affect life on earth.

 

Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.

 

Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum – a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.

 

Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original’ position.

 

Our sun has, since 2006, been in a solar minimum or quiescent phase.  Very few sunspots and solar flares. The next solar maximum was predicted to occur in 2012, but the sun’s sunspot activity has been slow to restart.

 

Yesterday NASA announced they are beginning to see real signs that the solar maximum may be finally in sight:

 

The Sun's Magnetic Field is about to Flip

August 5, 2013:  Something big is about to happen on the sun.  According to measurements from NASA-supported observatories, the sun's vast magnetic field is about to flip.

 

"It looks like we're no more than 3 to 4 months away from a complete field reversal," says solar physicist Todd Hoeksema of Stanford University. "This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system."

 

The sun's magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years.  It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the sun's inner magnetic dynamo re-organizes itself.  The coming reversal will mark the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24. Half of 'Solar Max' will be behind us, with half yet to come.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

While the odds of us seeing a `Carrington Event’ during this upcoming solar maximum are undoubtedly low, they are not zero. Solar flares of this size are predicted to happen roughly every 150 years, so  it may be decades before another one comes our way.  

 

I certainly don’t advocate lying awake at night worrying about solar flares (I certainly don’t!).  But I do believe that we all need to be prepared to deal with a variety of disaster scenarios.

 

The simple truth is, if you are well prepared to deal with an earthquake, pandemic, or a hurricane . . you are automatically in a better position deal with any other disaster, including low probability-high impact events like massive solar storms. 

 

An `All Hazards’ preparedness approach, rather than concentrating on a single perceived threat, is by far the best way to go.

 

Whether you live in the United States, the UK, or anywhere else in the world, you can find good preparedness information at the following links:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And lastly, you may wish to revisit some of my preparedness essays, including:

 

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

Scientists Predicting A Quieter Sun

 

 

 

# 5629

 

Even as the sun slowly rouses itself from what has been an unusually long solar minimum, there are signs that long-term, our star’s sunspot activity may be moving into a period of relative quiescence.

 

Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.

 

Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum – a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.

 

Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original’ position.

 

The next solar maximum was expected to peak next year, but the sun’s awakening has been running well behind schedule. Scientist now expect it may be 2013 before the next maximum occurs.

 

Today, three teams of scientists working independently are reporting to the annual meeting of The American Astronomical Society, being held this week at New Mexico State University, that there are signs that the solar-maximum-after-next (expected 2022-2023) may be much weaker than normal.

It may even disappear, and stay gone, for decades.

 

It has happened before.  

 

Between 1645 and 1715 there was a 70-year period known as the Maunder Minimum, where observable sunspots were all but absent on the sun’s surface.

 

From NASA.gov, this brief explanation of the Maunder event.

 

The Maunder Minimum

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented.

This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

 

 

From Space.com we’ve more details on these three studies, each independently suggesting that the sun may be moving into a quieter phase.

 

Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

by Denise Chow, SPACE.com Staff Writer

Date: 14 June 2011 Time: 01:01 PM ET

 

And more from PhysOrg.com

 

The Sun viewed in visible light, at minimum phase (2006) and maximum phase (2001)

 

What's down with the Sun? Major drop in solar activity predicted

 

 

(PhysOrg.com) -- A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

 

As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

 

Of course, we’ll have to wait to see if these models eventually play out the way these researchers are now expecting. It wasn’t so very long ago that scientists were predicting a potentially record-breaking Solar Maximum coming up in 2012.

 

A quieter sun wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. 

Solar flares and CMEs pose real dangers to satellites in orbit, passengers on the International Space Station, and even to our electrical grid on the earth’s surface (see A Flare For The Dramatic).

 

A prolonged quiet period, like we saw in the 1600s, might even serve to help cool the planet a bit.

 

How much of an impact all of this will have is going to have, I’m sure, will be the subject of much heated debate over the next few years. 

 

But whatever the end result, if this actually happens, it will provide scientists with invaluable data on how our sun, and our climate, interact.