NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012

Credit NASA

 

 

# 8859

 

Although it sounds like science fiction, two years ago today the earth narrowly (by cosmic standards) missed being hit by a massive solar storm that had the potential to knock our technology-dependant society back a hundred years. 

 

Back in 2010 we looked at the granddaddy of all known solar storms, the Carrington Event of 1859, and have revisited the topic a number of times since then, including:

 

NASA: Solar Max Is Finally Here

Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA

NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions

 

While this solar cycle has produced the weakest solar maximum in living memory, it also produced – on July 23rd, 2012 – the largest known solar flare in 155 years.  A double-whammy solar flare that rivaled, or perhaps even exceeded, the power of the 1859 Carrington event.

 

One that - had it erupted a week earlier – would have directly impacted earth.

 

A Solar Flare is the brief, sudden release of radiation energy (X-Ray, Gamma Rays, & energetic particles (protons and electrons)) from the surface of the sun, generally in the vicinity of an active sunspot.

 

Solar flares are rated as either C Class (minor), M Class (Moderate), or X Class (extreme), and while the electromagnetic radiation they release can reach earth in only about 8 minutes time, their effects are mostly limited to disrupting communications and potentially damaging satellites.

 

A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) is the ejection of a massive amount of plasma (electrons and protons & small quantities of helium, oxygen, and iron) from the the sun that may last for hours. Some of this plasma falls back into the sun, but trillions of tons can escape and if aimed in their direction, impact surrounding planets.

 

A CME may arrive on earth – 93 millions miles distant from the sun – 48 to 72 hours after it is observed, and spark a Geomagnetic Storm.   

 

While they pose no direct physical danger to us on the earth’s surface (we are protected by the earths magnetic field and atmosphere), a large CME can wreak havoc with electronics, power generation, and radio communications.

 

All of which brings us to a report, and 4 minute video, from NASA on this second anniversary of the earth almost getting clobbered by a `Carrington class’ solar storm.  First the links, and excerpts, and then I’ll be back with more.

 

Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012

July 23, 2014: If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news.

Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.

"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado. 

A ScienceCast video recounts the near-miss of a solar superstorm in July 2012. Play it

(Continue . . . )

 

From my perspective, that wasn’t a `near miss’ . . .  that was more of a `near hit’.

And even more sobering is this assessment, suggesting the odds of earth being struck by one of these solar super storms is actually a lot higher than we’ve previously thought.  Again from the NASA article:

 

In February 2014, physicist Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. published a paper in Space Weather entitled "On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events."  In it, he analyzed records of solar storms going back 50+ years.  By extrapolating the frequency of ordinary storms to the extreme, he calculated the odds that a Carrington-class storm would hit Earth in the next ten years.

The answer: 12%.

 

FEMA takes these solar storms seriously, and in 2010 held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the upcoming solar maximum. According to a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate back in 2011, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.

 

A 30 page PDF file is available for download from the FEMA library on this exercise which envisioned a `near worst-case scenario’.

Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain - The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm

 

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

You can download the PDF for free from the National Academies Press at the above link.

 

In November of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called  "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events). Making their top 10 list was:

 

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

 

And last year Lloyds of London issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing is unknowable.

 

Solar storms are among a number of plausible low-probability, high-impact events that – while not anything I would lie awake at night worrying about – are nevertheless worth considering as part of a balanced `All Hazards’ approach to preparedness.

 

In the 2011 OECD Report: Future Global Shocks report, the authors concentrated most of their attention on five highly disruptive future shock events.

 

• A Pandemic
• A Cyber Attack
• A Financial Crisis
• A Geomagnetic Storm
• Social Unrest/Revolution

While all of these are difficult to prepare for, the truth is -  if you are well prepared for an earthquake or a hurricane - you are automatically in a better position to deal with the disruptions caused by these more exotic threats. Some resources to get you started on the road to `all threats’ preparedness include:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And some of my preparedness blogs, including:

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

The Gift Of Preparedness: 2013

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

NASA: Solar Max Is Finally Here

 

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

 

# 8728

 

My fascination with the sun began more than a half century ago, and it’s all really Dr. Frank Baxter’s fault.   For those of us of a certain age in this country, the Bell Telephone Science Series featuring `Dr. Research’ (Baxter) was our first real introduction to science. 

 

For a nostalgic serving of retro solar science,  OUR MR. SUN  (1956) staring Dr. Frank Baxter and Eddie Albert is available on the Internet Archive.  What this old film lacks in 21st century science, it makes up with charm.

Dr. Research (Frank Baxter)

 

Science, and our understanding of the sun, has grown remarkably over the past half century, but the star at the center of our solar system still holds many mysteries.  Many of my readers are aware that we’ve been waiting . .  and waiting . . .and waiting for the sun’s `11 year-cycle’ to peak to its `Solar Maximum’ for three years.

 

Five years ago, some scientists were predicting one of the strongest Solar Max’s on record by about 2011. 

 

That didn’t happen.  Instead, today - several years later than expected - the sun has finally reached solar maximum, and it is the weakest maximum observed in a century..

First a report from NASA, after which I’ll be back with a bit more:

 

Solar Mini-Max

June 10, 2014:  Years ago, in 2008 and 2009 an eerie quiet descended on the sun.  Sunspot counts dropped to historically-low levels and solar flares ceased altogether.  As the longest and deepest solar minimum in a century unfolded, bored solar physicists wondered when "Solar Max" would ever return.

They can stop wondering. "It's back," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center.  "Solar Max has arrived."

A new ScienceCast video examines the curious Solar Max of 2014.  Play it

Pesnell is a leading member of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a blue-ribbon group of solar physicists who meet from time to time to forecast future solar cycles.  It's not as easy as it sounds. Although textbooks call it the "11-year solar cycle," the actual cycle can take anywhere from 9 to 14 years to complete.  Some Solar Maxes are strong, others weak, and, sometimes, as happened for nearly 70 years in the 17^th century, the solar cycle can vanish altogether. 

Pesnell points to a number of factors that signal Solar Max conditions in 2014: "The sun's magnetic field has flipped; we are starting to see the development of long coronal holes; and, oh yes, sunspot counts are cresting."

(Continue . . .)

 

 

Despite its weak showing, yesterday the sun produced two  X-class solar flares – albeit on the incoming limb of the sun – and not earth directed.  The sun spots responsible for that double-whammy are still flickering with magnetic instability, and will rotate into a geo-effective position over the next couple of days.

Today’s report from NASA references a large CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) in 2012 that - had it been earth-directed- could have caused a great deal of damage.

 

Indeed, this "Mini-Max" has already unleashed one of the strongest storms in recorded history.  On July 23, 2012, a plasma cloud or "CME" rocketed away from the sun as fast as 3000 km/s, more than four times faster than a typical eruption. The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't there. Instead it hit NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft, which recorded the event for analysis.  Researchers now believe the eruption was as significant as the iconic Carrington Event of 1859—a solar storm that set telegraph offices on fire and sparked Northern Lights as far south as Hawaii. If the 2012 "superstorm" had hit Earth, the damage to power grids and satellites would have been significant.

 

Long time readers will remember that I described this `Carrington Event’ in some detail in 2010, and have talked about some of the planning and preparation being done by NASA, the Military, and FEMA  in anticipation of another major solar storm (see NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions).

 

This isn’t science fiction.   Although no one knows when the next major solar flare will head in our direction. It could happen today, or it might not happen for decades.

 

Smaller, but disruptive solar storms have caused serious power outages and communications disruptions in recent decades, including the infamous Quebec power outage of 1989, and a 2003 solar storm that damaged a number of satellites and also caused some power outages in Europe.

 

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

 

In November of 2012 the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called  "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events).

 

Making their top 10 list (coming in at #7) was:

 

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

 

And last year Lloyds of London issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing is unknowable.

 

While the odds of us seeing a `Carrington Event’ during this upcoming solar maximum are fairly low, they are not zero. Solar flares of this size are predicted to impact earth every 150 years, so  it may be decades before another one comes our way.  

I certainly don’t advocate lying awake at night worrying about solar flares (I certainly don’t!).  But I do believe that we all need to be prepared to deal with a variety of disaster scenarios.

 

The simple truth is, if you are well prepared to deal with an earthquake, pandemic, or a hurricane . . you are automatically in a better position deal with any other disaster, including low probability-high impact events like massive solar storms. 

 

An `All Hazards’ preparedness approach, rather than concentrating on a single perceived threat, is by far the best way to go.

 

Whether you live in the United States, the UK, or anywhere else in the world, you can find good preparedness information at the following links:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And lastly, you may wish to revisit some of my preparedness essays, including:

 

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

NASA: The Approaching Solar Maximum

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

 

# 7543

 

 

Last week several major media outlets carried a story that claimed the earth `narrowly missed’ being hit by a `catastrophic’ solar flare last month.  The story – which described a `Carrington’ class CME – was picked up, and repeated by a number of blogs.

 

And had it been true . . . it would have been quite the story.

 

But according to Spaceweather.com (an excellent resource for space weather data), no such flare erupted from our sun in July, as explained in this FACT CHECK

 

SPACE WEATHER FACT CHECK: Many readers are asking about a report in the Washington Examiner, which states that a Carrington-class solar storm narrowly missed Earth two weeks ago. There was no Carrington-class solar storm two weeks ago. On the contrary, solar activity was low throughout the month of July. The report is erroneous. The possibility of such a storm is, however, worth thinking about: A modern Carrington event would cause significant damage to our high-tech society. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

 

I described the infamous Carrington Event in some detail back in 2010, but briefly:

 

In September of 1859 Richard Carrington, a renowned English astronomer, observed and recorded a tremendous solar flare that – were it to be repeated today – would wreck havoc with our modern electronic infrastructure.

 

This solar storm induced electrical currents in the newly built telegraph grid, shocking operators and starting fires.   Had it occurred today, much of the world’s electrical grid could be fried.

 

Another large (albeit smaller) event took place in 1921, but again, the technology of the day wasn’t terribly vulnerable to the effects of the storm.

 

However, in 1989 a geomagnetic storm fried several large power transformers in Quebec, causing a province-wide blackout.  And in 2003, a number of satellites were severely damaged by an extremely powerful CME which also caused some power outages in Europe.  

 

 

While it may not happen for decades, massive solar flares and CMEs are threats that NASA, FEMA, and other agencies take seriously (see Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA).

 

Last December the U.S. National Intelligence Council released a report called  "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" that tries to anticipate the global shifts that will likely occur over the next two decades (see Black Swan Events).

 

Making their top 10 list (coming in at #7) was:

 

7. Solar Geomagnetic Storms

"Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world's dependence on electricity," the report says.

 

And this year Lloyds of London issued a risk assessment for the insurance industry called Solar storm Risk to the north American electric grid which calls another `Carrington’ class event inevitable, and the effects likely catastrophic, but the timing is unknowable.

And last year, with the next solar maximum expected in 2013, the UK government updated their National Risk Register For Civil Emergencies to include severe space weather as a national threat (see  UK: Civil Threat Risk Assessment).

severe space weather – Space weather covers a range of different phenomena, including solar fares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle
events. Severe space weather can cause disruption to a range of technologies and infrastructure, including communications systems, electronic circuits and power grids. The ‘reasonable worst case’ for a severe space weather event is based on the so-called Carrington Event in 1859, which saw some of the largest space weather phenomena ever recorded.

 

 

As you can see, this isn’t some esoteric plot device for a cheesy direct-to-DVD Sci-Fi movie, or prophesy driven drivel: space weather is a serious threat than can, and does, affect life on earth.

 

Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.

 

Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum – a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.

 

Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original’ position.

 

Our sun has, since 2006, been in a solar minimum or quiescent phase.  Very few sunspots and solar flares. The next solar maximum was predicted to occur in 2012, but the sun’s sunspot activity has been slow to restart.

 

Yesterday NASA announced they are beginning to see real signs that the solar maximum may be finally in sight:

 

The Sun's Magnetic Field is about to Flip

August 5, 2013:  Something big is about to happen on the sun.  According to measurements from NASA-supported observatories, the sun's vast magnetic field is about to flip.

 

"It looks like we're no more than 3 to 4 months away from a complete field reversal," says solar physicist Todd Hoeksema of Stanford University. "This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system."

 

The sun's magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years.  It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the sun's inner magnetic dynamo re-organizes itself.  The coming reversal will mark the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24. Half of 'Solar Max' will be behind us, with half yet to come.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

While the odds of us seeing a `Carrington Event’ during this upcoming solar maximum are undoubtedly low, they are not zero. Solar flares of this size are predicted to happen roughly every 150 years, so  it may be decades before another one comes our way.  

 

I certainly don’t advocate lying awake at night worrying about solar flares (I certainly don’t!).  But I do believe that we all need to be prepared to deal with a variety of disaster scenarios.

 

The simple truth is, if you are well prepared to deal with an earthquake, pandemic, or a hurricane . . you are automatically in a better position deal with any other disaster, including low probability-high impact events like massive solar storms. 

 

An `All Hazards’ preparedness approach, rather than concentrating on a single perceived threat, is by far the best way to go.

 

Whether you live in the United States, the UK, or anywhere else in the world, you can find good preparedness information at the following links:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And lastly, you may wish to revisit some of my preparedness essays, including:

 

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

NASA: The Mysteries Of The Sun

 

# 6269

 

 

Although the sun is relatively quiet this week the next solar maximum – a period of greatest solar activity (sun spots, flares, CMEs) that occurs roughly every 11 years – is expected early in 2013.

It is during these solar maximums where the earth is at greatest risk of experiencing a major solar flare, something that if strong enough, could adversely affect satellites in orbit, sensitive electronics on the ground, and even the electrical grid.

 

Scientists at NASA, NOAA, and other agencies . . .  including FEMA  . . .  take the potential for destructive Solar storms very seriously, and in early 2010 FEMA held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the upcoming solar maximum (see Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA).

 

But despite some of the more dire warnings on the internet, NASA is quick to remind us that a damaging solar flare – while possible – may be decades away.

 

With the interest in the upcoming solar maximum running high, NASA has put together five short videos and a PDF book on the sun, which is  available on their Stars & Our Sun webpage.

 

20 page PFD book

 

 

The five videos are:

 

Space Weather

Solar Variability

Heliosphere

Earth's Magnetosphere

Ionosphere, Thermosphere, and Mesosphere

 

Each segment runs about 5 minutes in length, and all incorporate impressive graphics and informative narration. According to the press release, these videos have already won a number of prestigious awards prior to their public release.

 

I confess that I’m enough of a science geek to greatly appreciate these kind of films. My fascination with science goes back to the still delightful Bell System Science series of the 1950s, which introduced my post-war baby boom generation to science and research.

 

For a simpler retro look at the sun, and to compare how much we’ve learned over the past 54 years (in science and filmmaking), you may enjoy watching the classic educational film  OUR MR. SUN from 1956, staring Dr. Frank Baxter and Eddie Albert which is available on the Internet Archive.

 

Dr. Research (Frank Baxter)

 

What this old film lacks in 21st century science, it makes up with charm.

NOAA’s NSW Space Weather Prediction Center

 

Photo Credit NOAA 

 

# 6203

 

No, you won’t need an SPF 10,000 sun screen to protect yourself, but last night the sun lobbed a respectably-sized CME (coronal mass ejection) in the general direction of the earth (or at least, where the earth will be in a couple of days). 

 

Estimates are that we could see a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) over the next couple of days.  This is the alert from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

 

012-03-07 15:18 UTC  Solar Radiation and Geomagnetic Storms Continue

The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). As a result, storming reaching the G2 (Moderate) level continues at this time.  Another CME, part of the recent R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8) . Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely from that CME.  Finally, a Solar Radiation Storm is also in progress and levels are currently above the S3 (Strong) threshold.  Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

 

As we progress into 2012 and towards the expected solar maximum in 2013, we can expect to see an increase in the intensity, and frequency of these solar storms.

 

And for the hardcore solar geek, the Space Weather Prediction Center is the place where you’ll want to get the latest updates.

 

But NOAA’s SPC also has a very nice FACEBOOK page, which is probably a bit more user friendly for the general public, that they describe as:

 

This page is an experimental service provided by NWS to explore the use of Facebook to extend the reach of NWS information. Facebook posts do not always reflect the most current information. For current official info, visit: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

 

 

This page has short reports of space weather events and some spectacular photos, and graphics. 

 

Well worth taking a look.

 

 

Several times over the past two years I’ve written about the concerns that  FEMA and NASA, along with a host of other agencies and governments, have voiced about potential damage an unusually severe solar storm might cause to our high-tech infrastructure.

 

A few of those blogs include:

 

A Flare For The Dramatic

Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA

A Carrington Event

 

While sounding a bit like science-fiction, in truth large and potentially disruptive solar storms do occur on rare occasions – usually at the time of a solar maximum.

 

NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict. 

 

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

 

You can read it for free online at the above link. 

 

Last night’s CME doesn’t come close to being in the same league as the Carrington Event of 1859, or even some of the larger solar flares we saw back in the early part of the last decade.

 

But a CME someday in the future could have a serious impact on the earth’s technology. Which is why NASA and NOAA have invested so heavily in the study, and monitoring, of our sun.

 

Since solar flares and CMEs are likely to be in the news a lot over the next couple of years, you’ll probably want to make a point of visiting these NOAA sites often.

Solar Power Preparedness On A Budget

 

# 6004

 

 

Note: This is an update to of one my preparedness columns that has been very popular in the past. Instructions on how to set up a simple solar charging system for your home.

 

I re-run it about once a year, usually during the holidays when news is slow.

 

As former live-aboard boater, I lived off the grid – using a solar system like I describe in this essay  – for many months at a time.

 

During my 10 years living in Rural Missouri, we had several storm related power outages that lasted more than 24 hours, and were grateful for the 12 volt backup system I maintained.

 

Earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, and other localized disasters can disrupt power supplies for hours or even days.

 

A little bit of preparedness now, can make things a whole lot easier to deal with later.

To view more of my preparedness essays, click the NPM  or Prepare links in the Quick Search in my sidebar.

 

I’ve had several requests for information on how to construct a down and dirty (read : Cheap) solar power system for those with light duty requirements. If you are looking for a system to run power tools, a microwave oven, refrigerator, freezer, or your desktop computer   . . . the system described below will be woefully inadequate.

 

However, if what you want is something cheap, easy to built, and that will allow you to recharge Ni-cad batteries and cell phones, run LED lights or 12 volt fans, and maybe give you a few hours a day on your laptop computer . . .  then I present an inexpensive and easy to put together alternative.

 

With a bit of judicious shopping, a simple solar power setup can be had for  under $200, and can be put together in an afternoon or two.

 

Increase your budget to about $300 and you can more than double your capacity.

 

The price of solar panels continues to come down, with newer panels providing more watts per dollar.  Deals can often be found by looking in surplus stores, by buying discontinued models, or by purchasing panels with cosmetic blemishes. 

 

Is Solar for Me?

Solar power, of course, requires a good exposure to sunlight. The more sunlight you can access, the more efficient the output from your panels. If you live somewhere that has few sunny days, or you have no place to mount a solar panel that will catch good direct sunlight for 5 or 6 hours each day, the odds are that solar is not a good investment.

 

 

Simply put, solar panels generate small amounts of electricity from direct exposure of the cells to sunlight. Most solar panels generate 14 to 17 volts, enough to charge a 12 volt battery, and their ability to charge is rated in watts. A 15-watt panel generates 15 watts of electricity at roughly 15 volts each hour. This is roughly the equivalent of 1 amp of charging per hour into your battery.

 

Larger (more expensive) panels may produce 30, 40, 80, 120 watts of power (or more). For each 15 watts, think (roughly) 1 additional amp/hr. A 60-watt panel would therefore generate about 4 amps per hour during prime sunlight hours.

 

Of course, the electricity generated from a solar panel only is available when the sun is shining. At night, or when clouds obscure the sun, the power output stops. This is not very handy for those who would like to have lights at night. So to our solar panel we must add a storage device, a 12-volt battery or quite often, a bank of batteries. This allows us to bank electricity during the day, and draw it out, as needed, even during the night.

 

When we draw electricity from the battery bank, we can do so either as 12 volt or, with the aid of a device called an inverter, as 110 volt house current.

 

 

Think of a fully charged battery like a bucket filled with water. When you run LED lights, or convert power to 110v with the inverter, you are removing water. Sometimes, like with the LED's you take little sips, other times, when using the inverter, you take massive gulps. Either way, the amount of the water in the bucket goes down until it is empty.

 

 

The solar panel adds very small amounts of water to your bucket every hour the sun shines on it. The amount of water it adds is determined by the amount of direct sunshine and the watt rating of the solar panel.

 

As long as you add as much back to your bucket each day as you draw out, the battery remains fully charged. If you draw out too much, the battery is partially discharged, and you will have to wait several days for the solar panel to catch up.

 

The Solar Triad +1

 

To create a Solar Power system, you need basic components. The solar panel, a battery, and an inverter. You could get by without an inverter and only draw out 12 volt power from your batteries, but that is very limited, and as you will find, small inverters are very inexpensive. I would also add a 4th item, an inexpensive battery charger, for those times when the grid is up, so you can quickly recharge your batteries.

 

A 15 watt solar panel can often be purchased for less than $100. A suitable battery, for under $60. And a 400 watt inverter will run you about $22. All totaled, you can be in business for roughly $200. Not bad.

If your solar panel is larger than 15 watts, you'll probably want to add a solar panel charge controller. These run around $30, and can prevent overcharging of your batteries. If you use a small solar panel, they are not necessary.

 

To that, I would recommend an automotive battery charger, which will run about $25, although they can often be found for much less in yard sales. A 6/2 amp charger is fine. This will allow you to top off your battery during those times the grid is functioning. And by adding a 2nd battery, you can be using one battery while charging another. Total cost? Right at $300.

 

 

Most batteries will tell you how many amp/hrs they are rated for. This is not the same thing as cranking amps. Those are for short duration, and are for turning a starter on a car or engine. The best batteries are called deep cycle, or marine batteries, and typically can hold 105 amps or more. But they are heavy. Smaller batteries may only hold 10 or 20 amps. As long as your daily energy needs never exceed that, they could be used.

 

An LED light array will draw very little from the battery. Probably .1 amps an hour. 1 amp every 10 hours. You could go a long time without recharging.

 

But the inverter, which provides 110v, draws amps from the battery at an astounding rate. A 100 watt light bulb will pull 10-12 amps out of your battery in an hour. Using an appliance that uses the full 400 watt output would pull 40+ amps out in an hour. It would take days for the solar panel to replenish that much power.

 

The best use for the inverter is for running battery chargers for ni-cad batteries, or very occasionally to run a small portable tv, radio, or laptop computer. You will not be able to run a microwave, or a toaster, or power tools.

 

Of course, bigger solar panels and bigger batteries, and a bigger inverter would allow you to do these things. But based on what you are likely to have, you need to have low expectations.

 

A good investment are Ni-cad or Nickle-Hydrate (expensive, but better) rechargeable AA and AAA batteries, with a charging stand. This will allow you to have rechargeable batteries (using the inverter) to run cell phones, radios, even walkie-talkies.

 

Where possible, you should use the battery for the lowest possible power consumption. LED lighting, or charging AA and AAA batteries. A windup radio will take a burden off of your system.

 

 

Warning: Batteries can offgas Hydrogen gas, which can be explosive, and should be kept in a ventilated area. You will also need to check the electrolyte levels of the batteries and keep the plates covered with distilled water.

 

Solar panels, batteries, and inverters produce electrical currents and (even at low voltages) can be a dangerous shock hazard.  Always read and follow the instructions that come with your solar panels, batteries, chargers, and inverters.

 

If you are unsure of how to safely deal with these components, have someone who knows how give you instruction.

NASA Briefing Later Today On Space Weather

 

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

# 5763

 

 

A hundred years ago space weather made little difference to the inhabitants of the earth beyond producing spectacular auroral light shows in the high latitudes.

 

Humans were (and still are) well insulated from bursts of solar energy by the earths atmosphere and magnetic field, and our technology was primitive enough to be pretty much immune to the electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) generated by solar storms.

 

But over the last 50 years we’ve become increasingly dependent on high technology, and many of their components – including satellites, power generators, and radio communications – are vulnerable to unusually large EMPs.

 

With our sun now beginning to awaken from its solar minimum, and sun spot activity and CME’s (Coronal Mass Ejections) expected to increase over the next couple of years, concerns over the vulnerability of our modern technological infrastructure are rising again.

 

As I wrote in Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA, the United States takes this threat seriously. While massive solar storms are rare, they can and do occur.  And if one is pointed towards the earth, it has the potential to damage our electronic infrastructure.

 

In early 2010  FEMA  held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the upcoming solar maximum, and according to a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate yesterday, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.

 

A 30 page PDF file is available for download from the FEMA library on this exercise which envisioned a `near worst-case scenario’.

Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain - The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm

 

 

While sounding a bit like science-fiction, and being used (and abused) by prophesy/ Mayan 2012/ End-of-the-World fringe websites, the truth is large and potentially disruptive solar storms do occur on rare occasions – usually at the time of a solar maximum.

 

NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict.

 

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

 

You can read it for free online at the above link.

 

Since the Internet is filled with less-than-credible information about the threat of solar storms, I like to highlight information from reputable sources whenever I can.

 

Later today NASA will hold a televised news conference on our awakening sun and the tracking of space weather events, which may be viewed online via NASA-TV at 2pm EST today.  

 

Details come from the following media advisory:

 

 

MEDIA ADVISORY : M11-170

NASA Hosts News Briefing About Tracking Space Weather Events

WASHINGTON -- NASA will host a news briefing at 2 p.m. EDT, Thursday, Aug. 18, to discuss new details about the structure of solar storms and the impact they have on Earth. The new information comes from NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, or STEREO, spacecraft and other NASA probes.

 

The briefing will take place in NASA Headquarters' James E. Webb Auditorium, located at 300 E St. SW in Washington, and will air live on NASA Television and the agency's website.

The briefing panelists are:

-- Madhulika Guhathakurta, STEREO program scientist, NASA Headquarters
-- Craig DeForest, staff scientist, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, Colo.
-- David Webb, research physicist, Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College
-- Alysha Reinard, research scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Colorado, Boulder

 

Reporters unable to attend may ask questions from participating NASA centers or by telephone. To participate by phone, reporters must contact Steve Cole at 202-358-0918 or stephen.e.cole@nasa.gov by 11 a.m. on Thursday.

 

STEREO is part of NASA's Solar Terrestrial Probes Program in the agency's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The program seeks to understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment from the sun to Earth and other planets.

 

For more information about NASA's STEREO mission, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/stereo

 

For NASA TV streaming video, downlink and scheduling information, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/ntv

- end -

 

 

For more on Solar storms, including the granddaddy of them all – the 1859 Carrington Event, you may wish to revisit these earlier blog posts.

 

NASA: Getting Ready For The Next Big Solar Storm

 

NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions

 

A Carrington Event

NASA: Getting Ready For The Next Big Solar Storm

 

 

# 5644

 

 

A subject I’ve written on a number of times in the past  (see A Flare For The Dramatic, Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA, A Carrington Event) is in the news once more, with officials gathering in Washington D.C. this week to discuss the potential impact of a major solar storm.

 

The occasion is the 5th annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum — or SWEF.  And in attendance are representatives from Congress, NASA, NOAA, FEMA, electrical utilities, and the United Nations.

 

Despite recent forecasts for diminished solar activity in over the next few decades (see Scientists Predicting A Quieter Sun) it is worth noting that the largest solar flare recorded in the past 500 years – the infamous Carrington Event - occurred during a relatively weak solar cycle (#10).

 

 

Since I’ve covered these issues in the recent past, I’ll simply give you the link to the NASA Science News story, and step out of the way.

 

Getting Ready for the Next Big Solar Storm

June 21, 2011: In Sept. 1859, on the eve of a below-average¹ solar cycle, the sun unleashed one of the most powerful storms in centuries. The underlying flare was so unusual, researchers still aren't sure how to categorize it.  The blast peppered Earth with the most energetic protons in half-a-millennium, induced electrical currents that set telegraph offices on fire, and sparked Northern Lights over Cuba and Hawaii.

 

This week, officials have gathered at the National Press Club in Washington DC to ask themselves a simple question: What if it happens again?

Modern power grids are vulnerable to solar storms. Photo credit: Martin Stojanovski

 

"A similar storm today might knock us for a loop," says Lika Guhathakurta, a solar physicist at NASA headquarters. "Modern society depends on high-tech systems such as smart power grids, GPS, and satellite communications--all of which are vulnerable to solar storms."

(Continue . . . )

Scientists Predicting A Quieter Sun

 

 

 

# 5629

 

Even as the sun slowly rouses itself from what has been an unusually long solar minimum, there are signs that long-term, our star’s sunspot activity may be moving into a period of relative quiescence.

 

Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.

 

Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum – a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.

 

Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original’ position.

 

The next solar maximum was expected to peak next year, but the sun’s awakening has been running well behind schedule. Scientist now expect it may be 2013 before the next maximum occurs.

 

Today, three teams of scientists working independently are reporting to the annual meeting of The American Astronomical Society, being held this week at New Mexico State University, that there are signs that the solar-maximum-after-next (expected 2022-2023) may be much weaker than normal.

It may even disappear, and stay gone, for decades.

 

It has happened before.  

 

Between 1645 and 1715 there was a 70-year period known as the Maunder Minimum, where observable sunspots were all but absent on the sun’s surface.

 

From NASA.gov, this brief explanation of the Maunder event.

 

The Maunder Minimum

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented.

This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

 

 

From Space.com we’ve more details on these three studies, each independently suggesting that the sun may be moving into a quieter phase.

 

Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

by Denise Chow, SPACE.com Staff Writer

Date: 14 June 2011 Time: 01:01 PM ET

 

And more from PhysOrg.com

 

The Sun viewed in visible light, at minimum phase (2006) and maximum phase (2001)

 

What's down with the Sun? Major drop in solar activity predicted

 

 

(PhysOrg.com) -- A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

 

As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

 

Of course, we’ll have to wait to see if these models eventually play out the way these researchers are now expecting. It wasn’t so very long ago that scientists were predicting a potentially record-breaking Solar Maximum coming up in 2012.

 

A quieter sun wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. 

Solar flares and CMEs pose real dangers to satellites in orbit, passengers on the International Space Station, and even to our electrical grid on the earth’s surface (see A Flare For The Dramatic).

 

A prolonged quiet period, like we saw in the 1600s, might even serve to help cool the planet a bit.

 

How much of an impact all of this will have is going to have, I’m sure, will be the subject of much heated debate over the next few years. 

 

But whatever the end result, if this actually happens, it will provide scientists with invaluable data on how our sun, and our climate, interact.

A Flare For The Dramatic

 

 

 

# 5620

 

An M2 (medium) Class solar flare, with CME and an S1 (minor) Class Radiation storm recorded by NASA on June 7th, 2011.

 

Although sunspot activity remains relatively low, and the arrival of the next solar maximum (which occurs every 11-13 years) appears to be running a bit behind schedule, this week’s spectacular solar eruption is a reminder that the sun is indeed beginning to awaken from its prolonged quiescence. 

 

In this case, the accompanying spectacular CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) only provided a mild, glancing blow to the earth, and aside from sparking some high latitude auroras, had little effects.

 

But Scientists at NASA, NOAA, and other agencies . . .  including FEMA  . . .  take the potential for destructive Solar storms very seriously.

 

While they often occur simultaneously, Solar Flares and CMEs are not the same.  

 

A Solar Flare is the brief, sudden release of radiation energy (X-Ray, Gamma Rays, & energetic particles (protons and electrons)) from the surface of the sun, generally in the vicinity of an active sunspot.

 

Solar flares are rated as either C Class (minor), M Class (Moderate), or X Class (extreme), and while the electromagnetic radiation they release can reach earth in only about 8 minutes time, their effects are mostly limited to disrupting communications and potentially damaging satellites.

 

 

A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) is the ejection of a massive amount of plasma (electrons and protons & small quantities of helium, oxygen, and iron) from the the sun that may last for hours. Some of this plasma falls back into the sun, but trillions of tons can escape and if aimed in their direction, impact surrounding planets.

 

A CME may arrive on earth – 93 millions miles distant from the sun – 48 to 72 hours after it is observed, and spark a Geomagnetic Storm.   

 

While they pose no direct physical danger to us on the earth’s surface (we are protected by the earths magnetic field and atmosphere), a large CME can wreak havoc with electronics, power generation, and radio communications.

 

Geomagnetic storms are rated as running from Minor (G1) to Extreme (G5) on NOAA Space Weather Scales.

 

While G1-G3 level geomagnetic storm poses little threat, the potential for damage goes up at G4 and above. I’ve excerpted the G5 description.

 

G 5

Extreme

Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.

Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.

 

 

FEMA takes all of this very seriously, and in early 2010 they held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the upcoming solar maximum. According to a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate last February, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.

 

A 30 page PDF file is available for download from the FEMA library on this exercise which envisioned a `near worst-case scenario’.

Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain - The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm

An excerpt from this report’s forward reads:

 

Unlike natural hazards that we have faced in the past, disasters caused by abnormal solar activity could pose a worldwide threat and disrupt energy supplies, air transport, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure.

 

Addressing such a large-scale disaster in purely national terms is not sufficient and requires international collaboration.

 

Last year NPR produced a news report, and a brief All Things Considered audio report on this exercise.

 

Solar Storms Could Be Earth's Next Katrina

by Jon Hamilton February 26, 2010

 

While sounding a bit like science-fiction, and being used as fodder by prophesy/ Mayan 2012/ End-of-the-World fringe websites, the truth is exceptionally large and disruptive solar storms do occur on rare occasions – usually at the time of a solar maximum.

 

NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict.

 

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

You can download the PDF for free from the National Academies Press at the above link.

 

Large CMEs have occurred before, and have struck the earth.

 

I wrote about the most famous one that struck back in the 1800s in my blog A Carrington Event. Fortunately this massive CME happened before mankind developed, and became highly dependent upon, our modern electronic infrastructure.

 

A repeat performance today could cause widespread disruption.

 

 

Since it would require a massive CME of the correct polarity (opposite of the earth’s magnetosphere), aimed at where the earth will be 2 to 3 days hence . . . a lot of things would have to happen just right in order for the earth to experience a hugely destructive G5 Geomagnetic storm.

 

Which means that you shouldn’t lie awake at nights worrying about an impending solar storm apocalypse.

 

But you should be making serious individual, family, and business `All Threats’ disaster preparations, since the range of threats is large, and expanding.

 

If you are well prepared for an earthquake, a tornado, hurricane, or a pandemic . . . you are automatically in a better position to weather the disruptions caused by a rare solar storm or an even more unlikely Zombie Apocalypse (see The CDC And The Zombie Apocalypse).

 

 

Some resources to get you started on the road to `all threats’ preparedness include:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And a few of my (many) preparedness essays include:

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

Inside My Bug Out Bag

Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign

The Gift Of Preparedness

 

You can search this blog for more preparedness information by clicking this link.

Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA

 

 

 

# 5320

 

CME Feb 2000 – Credit SOHO

 

 

Over the past 48 hours activity on our sun - which has been in a prolonged quiescent period called a solar minimum for nearly 5 years - has increased signaling our approach to a solar maximum expected sometime in 2012 or 2013.

 

Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.

 

Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum – a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.

 

Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original’ position.

 

Our sun has, since 2006, been in a solar minimum or quiescent phase.   Very few sunspots and solar flares.

 

Regular readers will remember that three times last year I wrote about solar storms, and their potential for harm to our infrastructure.

 

Recent Media Reports On Solar Maximum

NASA Braces For Solar Disruptions

A Carrington Event

 

Yesterday, the newswires were filled with stories about a large (although not particularly severe) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) headed for earth. From the United States Space Weather Prediction Center, we get this update.

 

February 16, 2011 -- The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending -- G2, possibly periods of G3 -- geomagnetic storming.

Watch Today's Space Weather for the most recent activity.

 

 

CME’s are essentially huge bubbles (millions of tons, actually) of magnetized plasma that during times of heightened solar activity, are occasionally ejected from sun at great speed.  And when they are directed at earth, they can cause severe geomagnetic storms.

 

The most famous, and extreme example occurred in 1859 and is known as The Carrington Event.

 

While they pose no direct physical danger to us on the surface (we are protected by the earths magnetic field and atmosphere), they can wreak havoc with electronics, power generation, and communications.

 

So today would seem a good day to review solar storms, their impact, and how FEMA, NASA, and other agencies are preparing for them.

 

And what you should be doing to prepare, as well.

 

Although a G2-G3 level geomagnetic storm poses little threat, the scale goes up to a G5. 

 

And while rare, when those occur, the potential for damage is enormous.  You can view the entire scale at NOAA Space Weather Scales, but I’ve excerpted the G5 description.

 

G 5

Extreme

Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.

Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.

 

 

A year ago FEMA  held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the upcoming solar maximum, and according to a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate yesterday, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.

 

A 30 page PDF file is available for download from the FEMA library on this exercise which envisioned a `near worst-case scenario’.

 

Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain - The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm

The United States (U.S.) Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) planned and hosted The Workshop on Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain – The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm in Boulder, Colorado, on February 23-24, 2010.

 

The overarching goals of the Geomagnetic Storm Workshop were to allow senior government officials and representatives of both public and private entities from the U.S., Sweden, and the European Union (EU) to compare and contrast the current plans, policies, and procedures used to prepare for and respond to a widespread disaster in the U.S. and EU. The workshop also provided a means to discuss communications between the U.S. and EU in the event of a catastrophic disaster with Transatlantic implications.

 

An excerpt from this report’s forward reads:

 

Unlike natural hazards that we have faced in the past, disasters caused by abnormal solar activity could pose a worldwide threat and disrupt energy supplies, air transport, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure.

 

Addressing such a large-scale disaster in purely national terms is not sufficient and requires international collaboration.

 

 

Last year NPR produced a news report, and a brief All Things Considered audio report on this exercise.

 

Solar Storms Could Be Earth's Next Katrina

by Jon Hamilton February 26, 2010

 

The impact scenario used in this `near’ worst-case exercise reads:

 

An intense geomagnetic storm began on February 25, 2010, during a particularly cold weather outbreak in the Northeastern U.S. and Northern Europe. Significant electric power grid problems occurred, and a massive power fluctuation affected the transmission grid. Within one hour, cascading power outages were reported throughout the eastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. and eastern Canada.

 

Power stations reported numerous generator step-up transformers and transmission transformers out of commission, with projected replacements and repairs taking weeks and even months. This raised immediate concern of a critical infrastructure collapse with loss of water distribution, sewage disposal, hospital care, phone service, and fuel resupply. Satellite outages were reported, and cell phones experienced significant service disruptions.

 

Significant problems were also reported in Northern Europe. Power outages were reported in large areas of southern Sweden, Scotland, Northern England, and the upper tip of Northern Europe. The power outage's effects on international air transport and financial markets were widespread.

 

The extreme geomagnetic storm lasted for 24 hours, ending late on February 26. Full recovery of the U.S. power grid is expected to take six months. Many populated areas are expected to be without power for weeks or months.

 

While sounding a bit like science-fiction, and being used as fodder by prophesy/ Mayan 2012/ End-of-the-World fringe websites, the truth is large and potentially disruptive solar storms do occur on rare occasions – usually at the time of a solar maximum.

 

NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict.

 

In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

 

You can read it for free online at the above link.

 

Last year Space.com produced a spectacular 18 minute video entitled Attack of the Sun, which may be viewed on YouTube.

 

 

 

All of which brings us to what you can do to protect your family, your business, and your community should a `worst-case’ geomagnetic storm strike the earth.

 

While I wouldn’t advise anyone to lie awake at night worrying about such a rare event, it is another good reason to take general `all threats’ preparedness seriously.

 

So if you are well prepared for an earthquake, a hurricane, or a pandemic . . . you are automatically in a better position to weather the disruptions caused by a solar storm.

 

Some resources to get you started on the road to `all threats’ preparedness include:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And a few of my (many) preparedness essays include:

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

Inside My Bug Out Bag

Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign

The Gift Of Preparedness

 

You can search this blog for more preparedness information by clicking this link.

 

As we approach the solar maximum in 2013, you can expect to be hearing more and more stories about heightened sunspot, solar flare, and CME activity.