Avian Flu Diary: UK: Civil Threat Risk Assessment

# 6232

When thinking about the types of disasters that individuals, families, businesses, and communities ought to be preparing for it is useful to look at the threats that governments perceive as being of `high priority’.

Since 2008 the UK government has produced, and updated every two years, a National Risk Register For Civil Emergencies – essentially a short list of disaster scenarios (man-made & natural) that the Cabinet Office believe to be genuine threats.

They define a `CIVIL EMERGENCY’ as:

an event or situation which threatens serious damage to human welfare in a place in the United Kingdom – where serious damage is defined as ‘loss of human life; human illness or injury; homelessness; damage to property; disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel; disruption of a system of communication; disruption of facilities for transport; or disruption of services relating to health’
an event or situation which threatens serious damage to the environment of a place in the United Kingdom – where environmental damage is deined a‘contamination of land, water or air with biological, chemical or radio-active matter,or disruption or destruction of plant life or animal life’, and/or
war, or terrorism, which threatens serious damage to the security of the United Kingdom.

Threats are evaluated based on the likelihood of it happening over the next five years, and on severity of impact it would be expected to produce.

The damage and impact estimates used in this report represent a `reasonable worst case’ which exclude `highly implausible scenarios’.

While prudent for most disaster planning - as Japan learned last year with their combination 9.0 earthquake, 30+ Meter Tsunami, and multiple nuclear reactor failures – sometimes the reality can exceed `reasonable’ expectations.

As far as what the Cabinet Office views as the greatest threats to the UK over the next five years? Number one on their hit parade is . . . you guessed it:

Pandemic influenza – This remains the most significant civil emergency risk. The outbreak of H1N1 influenza in 2009 (‘swine flu’) did not match the severity of the scenario that we plan for and is not necessarily indicative of future pandemic influenzas; the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century (1918–19, 1957–58 and 1968–69) all had differing levels of severity. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic does not change the risk of another pandemic emerging (such as an H5N1 (avian flu)
pandemic) or mean that the severity of any future pandemics will be the same as the 2009 H1N1 outbreak.

Also on their list is a repeat of the 1953 severe coastal flooding event that claimed hundreds of lives and caused extreme property damage and a catastrophic terrorist attack.

New this year are the addition of Volcanic threats and the potential impact from severe space weather.

You may be wondering about the inclusion of a Volcanic threat to a country that isn’t exactly known for its volcanoes. Their concern stems from the impact of volcanic eruptions outside of their country – notably, in Iceland. Specifically they cite:

Severe effusive (gas-rich) volcanic eruptions abroad – The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland showed some of the consequences that a volcanic eruption abroad can have on the UK and its citizens. Following consultation with geological and meteorological experts about the potential risks the UK faces from volcanic eruptions in Iceland or elsewhere, the assessment is that there are two main kinds of risk from volcanic eruptions. The irst is an ash-emitting eruption, similar to that in 2010. The second, which is slightly less likely than an ash-emitting eruption, but which could have widespread impacts on health, agriculture and transport, is an effusive-style eruption on the scale of the 1783–84 Laki eruption in Iceland. This second type of eruption is now one of the highest priority risks in the NRA and the NRR.

In 1783 the Craters of Laki in Iceland erupted and over the next 8 months spewed clouds of clouds of deadly hydrofluoric acid & Sulphur Dioxide, killing over half of Iceland’s livestock and roughly 25% of their population.

These noxious clouds drifted over Europe, and resulted in widespread crop failures and thousands of deaths from direct exposure to these fumes. There are also anecdotal reports that suggest this eruption had short-term global climate impacts as well.

Another eruption of the type and scale seen in 1783 could present an enormous disaster scenario not only to the UK, but to all of Europe.

Also added this year (to coincide with the Solar Maximum expected in 2013) is the inclusion of Severe Space Weather as a national threat.

severe space weather – Space weather covers a range of different phenomena, including solar fares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle
events. Severe space weather can cause disruption to a range of technologies and infrastructure, including communications systems, electronic circuits and power grids. The ‘reasonable worst case’ for a severe space weather event is based on the so-called Carrington Event in 1859, which saw some of the largest space weather phenomena ever recorded.

While sounding a bit like science-fiction, Solar flares and CMEs are also on FEMA’s radar scope, and are subjects we’ve discussed before:

A Flare For The Dramatic

Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA

A Carrington Event

NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict.

The entire 58-page UK risk assessment makes for fascinating reading and can be downloaded from the Cabinet Office website (below):

National Risk Register

In 2008 Government published, for the first time, a National Risk Register, fulfilling a commitment made in the National Security Strategy. This was the first step in providing advice on how people and businesses can better prepare for civil emergencies.
The January 2012 update to this document; the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies- January 2012 edition has been published to update the public on the Government’s current assessment of the likelihood and potential impact of a range of different civil emergency risks ( including naturally and accidently occurring hazards and malicious threats) that may directly affect the UK. It also provides information on how the UK and emergency services prepare for these emergencies.

A wider review of how people and businesses can better prepare for civil emergencies, involving consultation with risk communication experts is underway. The January 2012 version therefore does not include guidance on how to prepare for emergencies. Whilst this review is underway chapter 3 and 4 of the 2010 edition of the NRR (see below) should be used as guidance on how people and businesses can better prepare for emergencies.

Downloads

National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies – January 2012 Edition (pdf, 949kb)

File type: PDF - Portable Document format | File size: 948.78 kB

While individually the odds of seeing a `Carrington Event’, or a repeat of the Laki eruptions, or a catastrophic terrorist attack in the UK are probably low, when you combine the threats, the odds of `something bad’ happening over the next five years go up.

Which is why individual, family, and community `All threats’ preparedness makes a lot of sense.

Whether you live in the United States, the UK, or anywhere else in the world, you can find good preparedness information at the following links: