Showing posts with label Bioterrorism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bioterrorism. Show all posts

Thursday, July 31, 2014

VDU Blog: A Deeper Look At The MacIntyre MERS-CoV Paper

Photo: ©FAO/Ami Vitale
Credit FAO

 

 

# 8898

 

 

Yesterday, in  Debating A Controversial MERS Paper, we looked at a rebuttal in the online academic forum The Conversation - by researchers @influenza_bio, @MackayIM, @maiamajumder, @neva925, @stgoldst & @kat_arden -  of a controversial paper by Professor Raina MacIntyre  that suggested that the  `human release’  of MERS-CoV could be behind the erratic outbreaks we’ve seen in the Middle East.


At just over a thousand words, this rebuttal was geared for the general reader, and so a lot of details were glossed over.

 

Today Dr. Mackay and company have posted a much longer analysis of the MacIntyre paper – one that runs well over 3,000 words – which dissects the MacIntyre paper more thoroughly. 

 

While acknowledging that bioterrorism is always `possible’, they argue that – based on the evidence – it  is an extremely unlikely scenario for MERS.

 

Follow the link below to read:

 

Virus variability, dopey data and insufficient infection control do not support the theory that bioterrorism is behind the ongoing MERS-CoV outbreak.

A collaborative note from (alphabetically): @influenza_bio, @MackayIM, @maiamajumder, @neva925, @stgoldst, @kat_arden

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Debating A Controversial MERS Paper

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Coronavirus – Credit CDC PHIL

 

# 8891

 

Last week, Professor Raina MacIntyre, Head of the School of Public Health and Community Medicine and Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at UNSW, published a paper called The discrepant epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), where she suggested that the unusual patterns of the MERS coronavirus outbreaks  might  indicate deliberate human release.

 

Professor MacIntyre went on to explain why a bio terror source ought to be at least considered in  MERS coronavirus: animal source or deliberate release?, published last week in The Conversation.

 

While best known for her work in respiratory virus transmission studies, over the past year we’ve looked at research from Dr. MacIntyre looking at whether the Flu Vaccine May Reduce Heart Attack Risk and just last month she and co-author Lauren M Gardner looked at some of the paradoxes presented by the MERS coronavirus. (see BMC Research Notes: Unanswered Questions About MERS-CoV.)

 

Dr. MacIntyre’s  latest paper, however, has been greeted with a good deal of skepticism, particularly among researchers and virologists, both on twitter, and in the media (see CIDRAP News Report).  

 

Today, a sextet of scientists and researchers – including well known infectious disease bloggers Dr. Ian Mackay and Maia Majumder - provide a rebuttal to Professor MacIntyre’s controversial hypothesis. Joining them are Dr.  Lisa Murillo from Los Alamos, Dr.  Katherine Arden from the University of Queensland, Dr. Nicholas G. Evans and Stephen Goldstein, both from the University of Pennsylvania.

 

Follow the link below to read their rationale, as published in The Conversation,  in its entirety.

 

 

30 July 2014, 5.40am BST

Middle East respiratory virus came from camels, not terrorists

When you hear hooves, shout camel, not bioterrorist. Delpixel/Flickr

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a tiny, spiky package of fat, proteins and genes that was first found in a dying man in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2012.

 

Since then, we have learnt a little more about the virus. We know that nearly 90% of infections have originated in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is lethal in about a third of known cases, most of whom are older males, often with one or more pre-existing diseases of the heart, lung or kidney. So far it has claimed nearly 300 lives.

 

Camels have emerged as the most likely source of human MERS-CoV infections. In fact, blood samples collected between 1992 and 2013 show camels have been fighting MERS-CoV for at least 20 years.

 

But, in an unusual twist, research published last week calls on us to seriously consider, or at least acknowledge, that bioterrorism might explain the emergence of MERS-CoV in people. Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at UNSW Australia, suggests that “deliberate release” may explain the paradoxical pattern of ongoing MERS-CoV infections.

(Continue . . .)

 

Although one can never totally eliminate the possibility that there is a human hand behind the spread of MERS, I confess that after reading Dr. MacIntyre’s paper last week,  I came away far less than convinced.  

 

While I briefly considered blogging the story, I saw that it had already been covered by CIDRAP News, and was being heartily debated on Twitter, and decided there was little of substance I could add.


A decision I’m glad of now, since others (far more qualified than myself) have now weighed in on the issue.   

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

TFAH: 2011 Ready or Not Report

 


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# 6026

 

 

TFAH, or the Trust For America’s Health, is a non-profit organization that audits and reports on public health issues in the United States. 

 

Yesterday, in the middle of an unusually busy health news cycle, they released their annual report on the readiness of the United States to deal with disease, disasters, and bioterrorism.

 

This year’s big concern is that the gains of the past few years in preparedness may be eroded due to budgetary constraints.

 

First an excerpt from the press release, then a link to the study and the conference call, followed by a link to a report by Lisa Schnirring at CIDRAP news.

 

Press Release

For Immediate Release: December 20, 2011

Report Finds Preparedness for Bioterror and Health Emergencies Eroding in States Across the Country

Cuts to Key Programs Could Hurt Ability to Detect and Respond to Crises

Washington, DC, December 20, 2011 -The Trust for America's Health (TFAH) and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) released the ninth annual Ready or Not? Protecting the Public from Diseases, Disasters, and Bioterrorism today, which finds key programs that detect and respond to bioterrorism, new disease outbreaks and natural or accidental disasters are at risk due to federal and state budget cuts.

Some key programs at risk due to continued cuts to federal public health emergency preparedness funds include:

  • 51 of the 72 cities in the Cities Readiness Initiative are at risk for elimination; the Initiative supports the ability to rapidly distribute and administer vaccines and medications during emergencies;
  • All 10 state labs with "Level 1" chemical testing status are at risk for losing top level capabilities, which could leave the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with the only public health lab in the country with full ability to test for chemical terrorism and accidents;
  • 24 states are at risk for losing the support of Career Epidemiology Field Officers - CDC experts who supplement state and local gaps to rapidly prevent and respond to outbreaks and disasters, such as during the H1N1 flu pandemic and responding to the health impact of the Gulf Oil Spill in 2010; and
  • The ability for CDC to mount a comprehensive response to nuclear, radiologic and chemical threats as well as natural disasters is at risk due to potential cuts to the National Center for Environmental Health. All 50 states and Washington, D.C. would lose the support CDC provides during these emergencies.

"We're seeing a decade's worth of progress eroding in front of our eyes," said Jeff Levi, PhD, Executive Director of TFAH.  "Preparedness had been on an upward trajectory, but now some of the most elementary capabilities - including the ability to identify and contain outbreaks, provide vaccines and medications during emergencies, and treat people during mass traumas - are experiencing cuts in every state across the country."

(Continue . . .)

Download the full report

Download a recording of the News Conference Call

 

 

And for good measure, Lisa at CIDRAP filed this report last night. Follow the link to read it in its entirety.

 

Preparedness report card spells out programs at risk for cuts

Lisa Schnirring * Staff Writer

Dec 20, 2011 (CIDRAP News) – Public health programs that detect and respond to bioterror events and disease outbreaks are at risk from federal and state budget cuts, a threat that could worsen over the next year if automatic across-the-board cuts kick in, according to an annual preparedness report card released today.

The big-picture preparedness view and warning come from Trust for America's Health (TFAH), a nonprofit health advocacy group, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

(Continue . . . )

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

The Bird Flu Research Debate Continues

 

 


# 5981

 

 

The hyperbolic headlines of the past few days would have the casual observer believing that the world’s bird flu researchers are a bunch of crazed scientists about to unleash a plague upon all of humanity.

 

A few examples taken from the NewsNow feed of the past 72 hours include:

 

Engineered Avian Flu Could Kill Half the World's Humans [Science] Gizmodo

 

Man-made deadly flu virus could wipe out humanity New Kerala

 

Mad Scientists Create H5N1 GM BioTerrorism Virus Conspiracy Planet

 

Based on the first two headlines, there is apparently some dispute over whether this research will be the death of all of us, or just half of the worlds population.

 

A minor technical point, I admit. But of interest, I would think, to at least 3.5 billion people.

 

There are legitimate questions to be asked regarding the safety and wisdom of many avenues of scientific research, but the truth is far less Strangelovian than some in the media would have us believe.

 

There is frankly little incentive for scientists to unleash a species killing plague, as it would make getting future research grants nearly impossible.

 

 

Since some in the media seem intent on pillorying bird flu researchers in general, and Ron Fouchier in particular, I thought it was only fair – for balance, if for no other reason - if I directed my readers to `the other side’ of this story.

 

My thanks to Gert van der Hoek on FluTrackers for posting the following link to Erasmus University’s Bird Flu Research FAQ.

 

 

FAQ Birdflu

Why does Erasmus MC carry out this type of research?

Erasmus MC carries out research to improve public health which is precisely why it is essential to conduct research on these viruses. A pandemic could cost many lives. Only by conducting these studies can we determine the risks caused by viruses and devise strategies to mitigate the risks, for example, by developing vaccines and medication to curtail the spread of the virus and by developing diagnostic tests. If these studies are not carried out as a precaution but once the virus has started to spread, it is too late. Research and the development of tests, vaccines and medication are very time consuming. The outcomes of this study will also be benficial in earlier recognition of dangerous variants of the virus in outbreaks.

You’ll also find their answers to the following questions on this webpage.

 

 

How big is the risk that the virus will spread among humans?

Could this dangerous virus escape from a laboratory or fall into the hands of people intending to cause harm, such as bioterrorists?

Can researchers become infected with the virus and then spread it?

Would it not be better to stop this type of research?

 

 

 

While some aspects of the media are unfairly painting bird flu researchers as a bunch of `mad scientists’ with a Gilbert Chemistry set, a sick chicken, and a dream - the reality is that nature continues to work 24/7 to develop more efficient pathogens. 

 

Researchers are trying to stay one step ahead of this process, in order to mitigate, or perhaps even avert, the next pandemic.

 

There are risks involved, of course. 

 

But those risks are also present in dozens of BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs all over the world, where scores of deadly pathogens are stored and experimented with every day. 

 

According to a CIDRAP report from last night (see Biosecurity panel said to be reviewing another H5N1 transmissions study) another well respected researcher’s work is under scrutiny by the US National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB), and there are discussions over how (or even whether) to publish the results.

 

Granted, genuine concerns exist over the wisdom of releasing the full details on these experiments, and some compromise regarding the publication of key elements to this research may well be needed.

 

But censoring the scientific community is a bad idea in principle, and as history has shown, rarely works in the long run. 

 

Knowledge is a difficult genie, no matter how closely held, to coax back into the bottle.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

The Debate Over Bird Flu Experiments Continues

# 5970  


In an attempt to learn what evolutionary steps are required for the H5N1 bird flu virus to mutate into a pandemic strain, scientists around the world have been working to create new laboratory strains and testing them for biological fitness and virulence.

Last September, one of the best known researchers in the world - Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam - revealed at a scientific conference that he’d managed to turn H5N1 into a virulent, and easily transmissible (among ferrets, anyway) pathogen.

(You can read about this work in Katherine Harmon’s Sci-Am article and in a follow up to this story in New Scientist: Five Easy Mutations.)

While still unpublished, there are growing concerns over the wisdom of conducting research like this, and its eventual publication. Some fear that this knowledge could be used by bioterrorists to engineer a bio-weapon (see NPR: Bio-Terrorism Concerns Over Bird Flu Research).

On Thursday Robert Roos of CIDRAP wrote on this issue in:

H5N1 transmission experiment stirs concern

Robert Roos * News Editor
Nov 17, 2011 (CIDRAP News) – A national biosecurity board that monitors "dual use" research is apparently worried about an as-yet-published study in which a mutant form of H5N1 avian influenza virus was found to be easily transmissible in ferrets, which are considered good models for flu in humans.
(Continue . . .)


This morning Helen Branswell of the Canadian Press brings us a detailed look at this growing controversy. Follow the link to read the article in its entirety.

Highly recommended.


Debate rages over new bird flu research; some argue it's not safe to publish


November 19, 2011 - 08:05
Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press
TORONTO - New bird flu research that shows that the dangerous virus can mutate to become easily transmissible among ferrets — and perhaps humans — has embroiled the scientific community in a difficult debate.
(Continue . . . )









A Brief Personal Note:  

I've been called away on a family medical emergency and do not expect to be back at my desk until late Monday (21st) or early Tuesday (22nd).  In the meantime, please avail yourself to the links to bloggers, newsgathers, and flu forums in my sidebar for the latest on flu and emerging infectious diseases.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

NPR: Bio-Terrorism Concerns Over Bird Flu Research

 

# 5967

 

 

Constant readers may have noticed that after a lull of a couple of years, interest and concern over the H5N1 bird flu appears to be on the rise again.

 

In August the FAO issued a statement on the emergence of clade 2.3.2.1 (see FAO Warns On Bird Flu) that is not covered by currently available poultry vaccines.

 

Last month, In H5N1: An Increasingly Complex Family Tree, we looked at the continued diversification of the H5N1 virus, which has now evolved into at least least 20 genetically separate clades of the virus, with many minor variants of each clade thrown in the mix.

 

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Last August, in Professor Peter Doherty On Bird Flu, we looked at his concerns over the possibility that the H5N1 virus might one day swap genes (reassort) with the H1N1 virus and produce an easily transmitted, highly virulent flu strain.

 

Reassorted viruses can result when two different flu strains inhabit the same host (human or otherwise) at the same time. Under the right conditions, they can swap one or more gene segments and produce a hybrid virus.

 

reshuffle

 

In September of this year Professor John Oxford - Scientific Director of Retroscreen Virology Ltd. and a Professor of Virology, expressed renewed concerns over the continued evolution of the H5N1 bird flu virus during a Webinar: John Oxford On Pandemic Preparedness.

 

But while nature continues to play mix and match with influenza genes – looking for a more `biologically fit’ combination - so do scientists in the laboratory.

 

Using reverse genetics, scientists are creating influenza reassortments to see exactly what genetic changes are needed to turn H5N1 (and other flu strains) into a human pandemic threat.

 

A few recent examples of this kind of research include:

 

In Study: Reassorted H1N1-H5N1 Produced Virulent Strain, we looked at work conducted by researchers at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital who created several reassortant 2009 pH1N1 viruses with individual genes borrowed from a 1997 H5N1 virus.

 

They found that one of these lab-created viruses, with the HA gene from the H5 virus, increased replication over the parental strain and produced virulence in mice comparable to the parent H5N1 strain.

 

And last February in PNAS: Reassortment Of H1N1 And H9N2 Avian viruses we saw research from Chinese scientists that created – using reverse genetics – 128 reassorted viruses from the avian H9N2 virus and the (formerly pandemic) H1N1 virus.

 

In mouse testing, they found half of the hybrid viruses were biologically `fit’ as far as replication goes, and 8 hybrids were significantly more pathogenic than either of their parental viruses.

 

Most strikingly, last September we learned of as-yet unpublished research conducted by Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands. 

 

He basically `mutated the hell’ out of the H5N1 virus in the lab, and then passed it serially through 10 ferrets, during which time it mutated further to become both easily transmissible and highly virulent.

 

You can read about this work in Katherine Harmon’s Sci-Am article.

 

 

I wrote a follow up to this story in New Scientist: Five Easy Mutations.

 

These studies have evoked considerable controversy over what kinds of information should be published, since the details of these sorts of experiments could conceivably be used to create a bio-weapon.

 

Today NPR has a segment on their Morning Edition show that looks at the ethics of such research and their publication. 

 

You can listen to the 5 minute audio report at the link below.

 

 

 

Bird Flu Experiment Rattles Bioterrorism Experts

by Nell Greenfieldboyce

November 17, 2011

 

November 17, 2011

Scientists are worried about the deadly bird flu called H5N1 which sometimes infects people. It's never acquired the ability to transmit easily between humans, but researchers would like to know if that could happen. Recently, they've essentially been altering the genes of H5N1 to make the virus spread more easily between lab animals — raising concerns about biosafety and how this research is regulated.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

WMD Center: BIO-Response Report Card

 

 

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# 5894

 

While I’m personally more concerned over the probability that nature will produce a new, highly virulent pandemic than the possibility that terrorists might develop and unleash a bio-nightmare – I recognize that both are legitimate concerns - and either could deliver a substantial blow to the United States, and to the world.

 

So I’m happy to report that a new analysis outlining America’s ability to respond to either type of bio-emergency has just been released. 

 

The WMD Center, a bi-partisan group formed in 2010 and led by two well respected former Senators (Bob Graham, Chairman & Senator Jim Talent, Vice Chairman) along with an advisory group consisting of some of the nation’s leading biodefense experts, has put together an in depth report card on the nation’s ability to respond to a biological threat.

 

And while much of this report is WMD centric, many of the areas it addresses are equally important during a naturally occurring pandemic.

 

From the executive summary, this report offers:

  • An overview of  current and emerging bioterrorism threats,
  • Fundamental expectations and evaluations for each of  seven bio-response categories,
  • An overview of challenges that affect the entire bio-response enterprise, and
  • Recommended priorities that will strengthen the nation’s bio-preparedness and response capabilities.

 

The bottom line, again from the executive summary, is that:

 

The nation does not yet have adequate bio-response capability to meet fundamental expectations during a large-scale biological event.

 

 

As you can see from the color coded report card below, there are a lot of areas where this critical review gives a failing, or near-failing, grade.

 

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Ten years after the anthrax attacks of 2001, out of 40 categories graded, 15 received an F, 10 received a D, and no area received an A.

 

You can read the entire 73 page report at the link below:

 

Bio-Response Report Card

The idea for this report card project began late last year, when we asked ourselves the question, “If the nation is unprepared for a biological attack, what more can we do?” Since 2001, the United States government has spent more than $65 billion on biodefense, and yet it has done so without an end-to-end, strategic assessment of the nation’s bioresponse capabilities. This report seeks to fill that gap.

View the complete Bio-Response Report Card PDF

 

 

This report indicates that America’s ability to respond to small-scale biological events has improved, but the ability to manage large-scale outbreaks (or worst case scenarios) is severely lacking.

 

This is a sobering report, highly critical in some areas, and will likely ruffle some feathers. 

 

But it does illustrate just how complex, and difficult, preparing for a large-scale biological threat really is. While this report provides that progress has been made, it also reminds us how much work still remains ahead.

 

There is a lot of detail in this report, so by all means, it is worth taking the time to read the whole report.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A US Report Card On Bioterrorism Readiness

 

 

 

# 4293

 

 

In the wake of the 9/11 Commission report - Congress set up a Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism - which is chaired by former Florida Senator Bob Graham and former Missouri Senator Jim Talent.

 

Last year the commission produced their first major report, The World At Risk, where they warned that a bio-terrorism attack on the US was likely by 2013.

 

Today, we get a new report from the commission – a report card, really – on how the  US is responding to the terror threat.  

 

And in the view of this commission, the marks aren’t very good. In fact, in some areas, they give the US a failing grade.

 

Admittedly this report is geared primarily towards the prevention and/or containment of an intentional biological or radiological attack, not a pandemic or a disease outbreak. 

 

Regardless of how seriously you view the threat of an intentional biological release,  it can certainly be argued that many of the skills and resources needed to deal with that contingency would prove equally important in a serious pandemic.

 

Here then is the press release from the Commission.  You can download the full report here.

 

 

Report Card: Government Failing to Protect America from Grave Threats of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism

 

Washington, D.C.—Former Senator Bob Graham (D-FL) and former Senator Jim Talent (R-MO), chair and vice chair of the bipartisan Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, today released a report card indicating that the U.S. government is not taking the necessary steps to protect the country from the threats posed by WMD and terrorism.

 

Of 17 grades, the report card includes three failing “F” grades on rapid and effective response to bioterrorism; Congressional oversight of homeland security and intelligence; and national security workforce recruitment.  Fortunately, all three grades could be substantially improved by committed leadership in Congress and the Administration.

 

“Nearly a decade after September 11, 2001, one year after our original report, and one month after the Christmas Day bombing attempt, the United States is failing to address several urgent threats, especially bioterrorism,” said Senator Graham.  “Each of the last three Administrations has been slow to recognize and respond to the biothreat. But we no longer have the luxury of a slow learning curve, when we know al Qaeda is interested in bioweapons.”

 

“We are also enormously frustrated about the failure of Congress to reform homeland security oversight,” said Senator Talent.  “The Department can’t do its job, if it is responding to more than 80 congressional committees and sub-committees.  This fragmentation guarantees that much of what Congress does is duplicative and disjointed.”

 

The Report Card also includes “A” grades for achieving specific actions related to a review of domestic programs to secure dangerous pathogens, for finalizing and approving an Interagency Bioforensics Strategy, and for conducting recommended reorganization inside the National Security Council.

 

In December 2008, the Commission released its World at Risk report with a unanimous threat assessment: Unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.  That weapon is more likely to be biological than nuclear.  The Commission identified a series of recommendations and specific actions that Congress and the Administration should take to change the trajectory of risk.  Today’s report card evaluates steps taken to implement these recommendations and to protect the United States from the threats of WMD proliferation and terrorism.

 

The threat assessment was based on multiple factors.  There is direct evidence that terrorists are trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction and acquiring WMD fits the tactical profile of terrorists. Terrorists also have global reach and the organizational sophistication to obtain and use WMD. Finally, the opportunity to acquire and use such weapons is growing exponentially because of the global proliferation of nuclear material and biological technologies.

 

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