OIE Notification: LPAI H7N3 At California Turkey Farm

Merced County - Credit Wikipedia

 

# 9842

 

This news was telegraphed several hours ago when we saw the announcement that  Hong Kong bans import of poultry meat and products from Merced County, California, US, but we now have an OIE notification with preliminary details of this low path H7N3 outbreak.

 

In it’s HPAI form, H7N3 has caused major losses and disruptions in the poultry industry, including in the 2005 Fraser Valley (B.C.) outbreak in 2004 that required the culling of 17 million birds, and Mexico’s prolonged running battle with the virus in 2012-13   (see Mexico Declares National H7N3 Animal Health Emergency).

 

Additionally, HPAI H7N3 has been associated with minor human illnesses (see MMWR: Mild H7N3 Infections In Two Poultry Workers - Jalisco, Mexico).

 

Low Path (LPAI) strains are viewed as being much less dangerous – and often only cause minor illness in birds – but need to be quickly contained because LPAI H7 and H5 viruses have the potential to evolve into HPAI strains.

 

Given the recent emphasis, and ramping up of poultry operations biosecurity for HPAI H5 viruses in California and most Western states, it will be interesting to see what the `comprehensive epidemiological investigation’ of this outbreak turns up.

 

Here is the OIE Notification.

 

 

Source of the outbreak(s) or origin of infection

• Unknown or inconclusive

Epidemiological comments

The USDA Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) are conducting a comprehensive epidemiological investigation of this event. Epidemiological summary of the event as of 17 March 2015: • A commercial tom turkey flock exhibited coughing with a slight increase in mortality. Samples were submitted for laboratory testing and were confirmed positive for influenza A virus (IAV) H7N3 LPAI. • North American H7N3 LPAI based upon partial HA and NA sequence obtained directly from swab specimen; virus isolation pending. • The infected premises was placed under quarantine following preliminary findings and an epidemiological investigation was initiated. • Follow-up surveillance and testing on 10 epidemiologically associated farms was negative for IAV. The epidemiological investigation and response to the event are continuing.

Control measures

Measures applied

• Quarantine
• Movement control inside the country
• Zoning
• Vaccination prohibited
• No treatment of affected animals

Measures to be applied

• No other measures

APHIS: H5N8 Infects California Commercial Turkey Farm

Credit Wikipedia – Stanislaus County

# 9624

 

Via APHIS today, we’ve word of the first American commercial poultry operation to be infected with the recently arrived HPAI H5N8 virus, in this case a turkey farm in Stanislaus County, California just east of the San Francisco Bay area.  

 

Previously several small backyard flocks in Washington, Oregon and Idaho had been affected - as well as wild birds – but no commercial farms.

Credit USDA

While ramped up biosecurity measures have been promoted by state and local agricultural agencies, as we’ve seen elsewhere in the world, keeping these avian viruses out of commercial flocks can be a difficult task. The H5N8 virus, in particular, seems well adapted to spread via wild and migratory birds and over the past 12 months has become a serious threat to poultry operations across much of Asia and parts of Europe.

 

The only good news is, so far we’ve seen no evidence that H5N8 poses a serious threat to human health.  The caveat being that avian viruses continue to evolve, and new reassortant viruses could pose different risks.

Here is the statement from the USDA APHIS website, after which I’ll be back with a bit more:

 

Highly Pathogenic H5N8 Avian Influenza Confirmed in Commercial Turkey Flock in California

Last Modified: Jan 24, 2015

 No immediate public health concern; detected strain is not known to harm humans

Contacts:
Joelle Hayden (301) 851-4040
joelle.r.hayden@aphis.usda.gov
Ed Curlett (301) 851-4052
ed.c.curlett@aphis.usda.gov

WASHINGTON, Jan. 24, 2015— The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic (HPAI) H5N8 avian influenza in a commercial turkey flock in Stanislaus County, California.  This is the first finding of HPAI in commercial poultry during the ongoing disease incident in the Pacific Flyway. No human cases of these avian influenza viruses have been detected in the United States, Canada, or internationally, and there continues to be no public health concern.

Samples from the flock, which experienced increased mortality, were tested at the California Animal Health & Food Safety Laboratory System (CAHFS) and the APHIS National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa confirmed the finding.  APHIS is partnering closely with the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), which has quarantined the facility.  APHIS and CDFA have initiated an incident command response, and APHIS will assist CDFA in depopulating the remaining birds on the property to prevent the spread of the disease. Birds from the involved flock will not enter the food system. 

H5N8 has not been shown to present a health risk to the public.  As a reminder, the proper handling and cooking of poultry and eggs to an internal temperature of 165 ˚F kills bacteria and viruses.

Federal and State partners are working jointly on additional surveillance and testing in the nearby area, following existing avian influenza response plans.  These plans also will include preventing the movement of risky animals or products out of the immediate area to prevent further disease spread.  The United States has the strongest AI surveillance program in the world, and USDA is working with its partners to actively look for the disease in commercial poultry operations, live bird markets, and in migratory wild bird populations. 

USDA will be notifying the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) of this detection as part of USDA’s ongoing reporting of all HPAI findings.  USDA also continues to communicate with trading partners to encourage adherence to OIE standards and minimize trade impacts. OIE trade guidelines call on countries to base trade restrictions on sound science and, whenever possible, limit restrictions to those animals and animal products within a defined region that pose a risk of spreading disease of concern. 

These virus strains can travel in wild birds without them appearing sick.  People should avoid contact with sick/dead poultry or wildlife. If contact occurs, wash your hands with soap and water and change clothing before having any contact with healthy domestic poultry and birds.

All bird owners, whether commercial producers or backyard enthusiasts, should continue to practice good biosecurity, prevent contact between their birds and wild birds, and to report sick birds or unusual bird deaths to State/Federal officials, either through your state veterinarian or through USDA’s toll-free number at 1-866-536-7593.  Additional information on biosecurity for backyard flocks can be found at healthybirds.aphis.usda.gov

(Continue . . .)

 

Over the past couple of months we’ve seen H5N8 and/or H5N2 turn up in five western states (California, Idaho, Utah, Oregon & Washington), as well as in British Columbia – all lying beneath the Pacific Migratory Flyway.

It is probably safe to assume that these HPAI viruses are winging their way stealthily across other western states, and could perhaps make it down into Mexico or Central America. The Pacific Flyway extends north-south from Siberia all the way down to the tip of South America. 

 

As these global migratory flyways overlap, it is possible to see lateral (west-to-east) movement of avian viruses as well. 

 

Should these highly pathogenic avian viruses become better established in North American birds, they could prove a very expensive challenge for our domestic poultry industry. Over the past 12 months Korea has culled more than 15 million birds due to H5N8, China and Japan continue to do battle with it, and the butcher’s bill from its recent incursion into Taiwan is far from being tallied.

 

For a virus that just over a year ago was on no one’s radar, H5N8 has made quite the splash, and right now shows no signs of retreating anytime soon.

California DPH Statement On Measles Outbreak

2014 Measles Status As of November – Credit CDC

 

# 9612

 

Fifteen years ago measles was declared eliminated in the United States – a product of  more than 35 years of successful vaccination policies.   But measles, like Whooping Cough (Pertussis), has made a comeback over the past decade, with rising rates both in the United States and around the world.

 

During the 1950s – before the introduction of the measles vaccine – the US saw roughly 4 million infections which hospitalized nearly 50,000, and contributed to the deaths of several hundred every year. 

 

Last May, in CDC Telebriefing: Worst US Measles Outbreak In 20 Years, we looked at the worst start for measles in 2 decades, and as the chart at the top of this blog shows, that trend continued throughout the year.  According to the CDC, many of the cases in the U.S. last year were  brought in from the Philippines (see the Measles in the Philippines Travelers' Health Notice).

The CDC warns:

• The majority of the people who got measles are unvaccinated.
• Measles is still common in many parts of the world including some countries in Europe, Asia, the Pacific, and Africa.
• Travelers with measles continue to bring the disease into the U.S.
• Measles can spread when it reaches a community in the U.S. where groups of people are unvaccinated.

 

Although 2015 has barely begun, already California is reporting a major measles outbreak linked to exposures at Disneyland earlier in the month.  Here is the latest update.

 

 

California Department of Public Health Confirms 59 Cases of Measles

Date: 1/21/2015

Number: 15-008

Contact: Anita Gore - (916) 440-7259

SACRAMENTO

Dr. Ron Chapman, director of the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and state health officer, announced today that local public health officials have confirmed a total of 59 cases of measles in California residents since the end of December 2014. 

“If you have symptoms, and believe you may have been exposed, please contact your health care provider. Unless you have an emergency, it is best to contact your health care provider by phone to prevent spread in doctor’s offices.” said Chapman. “The best way to prevent measles and its spread is to get vaccinated.”

Of the confirmed cases, 42 have been linked to an initial exposure in December at Disneyland or Disney California Adventure Park in Anaheim, California. The confirmed cases include five Disney employees. In addition, other cases have visited Disney parks while infectious in January. CDPH recommends that any patient with a measles compatible illness who has recently visited venues where international travelers congregate, such as theme parks, airports, etc., be considered to have a plausible exposure to measles.

Measles is a highly infectious, airborne disease that typically begins with fever, cough, runny nose and red eyes, and within a few days a red rash appears, usually first on the face and then spreading downward to the rest of the body. 

Vaccination is the most important strategy to prevent measles. Two doses of measles-containing vaccine (MMR vaccine) are more than 99 percent effective in preventing measles. Measles vaccines have been available in the United States since 1963, and two doses have been recommended since 1989. If you are unsure of your vaccination status, check with your doctor to have a test to check for measles immunity or to receive vaccination.

Local health departments and CDPH continue to investigate reported cases. Several “secondary” cases in persons exposed to the initial group have been reported.  Secondary cases are common with measles. As with the first group of cases, there is a risk of additional transmission in places where the secondary cases have been while infectious. Persons can be infectious for a few days prior to developing symptoms of measles and may feel well enough to be out and about potentially exposing others. 

In addition, public health officials are continuing to contact persons exposed to measles cases to determine their vaccination history and implement strategies to prevent spread. This is an ongoing situation, and CDPH expects to receive additional reports of cases.

Measles has been eliminated in the United States since 2000. However, large measles outbreaks have occurred in many countries, particularly in Western Europe, Pakistan, Vietnam and the Philippines in recent years. Travelers to areas where measles circulates can bring measles back to the U.S., resulting in limited domestic transmission of measles. California has many international attractions and visitors come from many parts of the world. It is important for health care providers and the public to be aware that measles transmission can occur in California, and they can prevent transmission by receiving the MMR vaccine. 

The California measles patients reside in 11 local health jurisdictions (Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Ventura Counties and the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena). Patients range in age from seven months to 70 years. Vaccination status is documented for 34 of the 59 cases. Of these 34, 28 were unvaccinated, one had received one dose and five had received two or more doses of MMR vaccine. 

Health care providers treating patients with fever and a rash should consider measles, and ask patients about travel to international destinations and domestic venues that are popular with international visitors. People who are unvaccinated should know that there is presently a risk for acquiring measles in California.

California DPH: Whooping Cough Epidemic Continues

Credit CDC

 

# 8791

 

California’s Whooping cough (Pertussis) outbreak – which officials declared as an epidemic two weeks ago -  continues to grow at a rate comparable to what we saw in 2010 – when the last major epidemic broke out. 

 

Over the past two weeks, 1100 new cases have been identified, including one fatality.

Pertussis report 2014-6-24

Almost eliminated in this country by the mid-1970s, Whooping cough has made a worrisome comeback over the past decade, with roughly 50,000 cases reported in 2012. The reasons behind these increases are complex, and not entirely understood, but some factors are believed to be:

 

• lower vaccination uptakes in children and adults
• the move away from whole cell pertussis vaccines to safer (but somewhat less protective) acellular vaccines in the 1990s
• evolutionary changes in the Bordetella pertussis bacteria.

Whooping cough outbreaks are cyclical, and we see localized outbreaks increase every three to five years.  The last `big’ year for Whooping cough in California was 2010, but  2014 is shaping up to be another bad year.   This from the California Department of Public Health.

 

California Whooping Cough Epidemic Continues

Date: 6/27/2014

Number: 14-060

Contact: Anita Gore, (916) 440-7259

SACRAMENTO

1,100 new cases have been reported in the last two weeks

The number of pertussis (whooping cough) cases in the state continues to climb, Dr. Ron Chapman, director of the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and state health officer reported today.

In the past two weeks, 1,100 new cases of pertussis have been reported to CDPH. This brings the total number of cases to 4,558 (as of June 24). This far surpasses the total number of reported cases in 2013, which was 2,532. One additional infant has died, bringing the total number of infant deaths to three. Children four-months-old or younger account for nearly 2/3 of all pertussis hospitalizations.

“Infants are at the greatest risk of illness and death from pertussis,” said Dr. Chapman. “Vaccination is the best form of protection. We’re encouraging all parents to vaccinate their children, and for pregnant women to be vaccinated to protect their babies. This will ensure maximum protection against this potentially fatal disease.”

The Tdap vaccination for pregnant women is the best way to protect infants who are too young to be vaccinated. All pregnant women should be vaccinated with Tdap in the third trimester of each pregnancy, regardless of previous Tdap vaccination. Inoculated women pass immunity to their unborn babies that protect them until they can be vaccinated. Infants should be vaccinated as soon as possible. The first dose of pertussis vaccine can be given as early as 6 weeks of age.

Older children, pre-adolescents and adults should also be vaccinated against pertussis according to current recommendations.

“It’s particularly important that people who will be around newborns also be vaccinated,” added Dr. Chapman. “This includes babysitters, older siblings, parents and grandparents. When those people are vaccinated they will help protect infants who are too young for immunization.”

The symptoms of pertussis vary by age. For children, pertussis typically starts with a cough and runny nose that can last up to two weeks. The cough then worsens and turns into rapid coughing spells that end with a tell-tale “whooping” sound. Young infants may not have typical pertussis symptoms and may have no apparent cough. Parents describe episodes in which the infant’s face turns red or purple. For adults, pertussis may simply be a cough that lasts for several weeks.

CDPH is working closely with local health departments, schools, media outlets and other partners to inform the general public about the importance of vaccination against pertussis.

California Declares Whooping Cough (Pertussis) Epidemic

Credit CDC’s Pertussis page.

# 8743

 

Two weeks ago, in California: Pertussis Rising (Again), we looked at the early, steep rise in Pertussis cases reported in California this year, along with a look back at the the history of the disease, and the vaccine used to combat it.

Credit CDC

 

After all but eliminating the disease in the United States in the 1970s, Pertussis is back, albeit at only 1/10th the levels it once was. The reasons behind these increases are complex, and not entirely understood, but some factors are believed to be:

• lower vaccination uptakes in children and adults
• the move away from whole cell pertussis vaccines to safer (but somewhat less protective) acellular vaccines in the 1990s
• evolutionary changes in the Bordetella pertussis bacteria.

 

Whooping cough outbreaks are cyclical, and we see localized outbreaks increase every three to five years.  The last `big’ year for Whooping cough in California was 2010, but 2014 looks like another contender.   Yesterday, the state of California formally declared this year’s outbreak an epidemic.

 

More than 800 new cases have been reported in the last two weeks

The number of pertussis (whooping cough) cases in the state has reached epidemic proportions it was reported today by Dr. Ron Chapman, director of the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and state health officer.

As of June 10, there have been 3,458 cases of pertussis reported to CDPH in 2014, more than were reported in all of 2013. Over 800 new cases have been reported in the past two weeks.

Pertussis is cyclical and peaks every 3-5 years. The last peak in California occurred in 2010, so it is likely another peak is underway.

“Preventing severe disease and death in infants is our highest priority,” says Dr. Chapman. “We urge all pregnant women to get vaccinated. We also urge parents to vaccinate infants as soon as possible.”

Infants too young to be fully immunized remain most vulnerable to severe and fatal cases of pertussis. Two-thirds of pertussis hospitalizations have been in children four months or younger. Two infant deaths have been reported.

The Tdap vaccination for pregnant women is the best way to protect infants who are too young to be vaccinated. All pregnant women should be vaccinated with Tdap in the third trimester of each pregnancy, regardless of previous Tdap vaccination. In addition, infants should be vaccinated as soon as possible. The first dose of pertussis vaccine can be given as early as 6 weeks of age.

Older children, pre-adolescents, and adults should also be vaccinated against pertussis according to current recommendations. It is particularly important that persons who will be around newborns also be vaccinated.
“Unlike some other vaccine-preventable diseases, like measles, neither vaccination nor illness from pertussis offers lifetime immunity,” says Dr. Ron Chapman. “However, vaccination is still the best defense against this potentially fatal disease.”

The symptoms of pertussis vary by age. For children, a typical case of pertussis starts with a cough and runny nose for one to two weeks. The cough then worsens and children may have rapid coughing spells that end with a “whooping” sound. Young infants may not have typical pertussis symptoms and may have no apparent cough. Parents may describe episodes in which the infant’s face turns red or purple. For adults, pertussis may simply be a cough that persists for several weeks.

CDPH is working closely with local health departments, schools, media outlets and other partners to inform the general public about the importance of vaccination against pertussis. 

Pertussis data, including the number of cases in each county, can be found on the CDPH website, and is updated regularly

California: Pertussis Rising (Again)

Credit CDC’s Pertussis page.

 

Key Points:

• 5/30/14 - California Warns on Rising Pertussis Cases

 

# 8688

 

In June of 2010 we started to follow what would end up being the worst Pertussis (Whooping cough) outbreak in the State of California (see California: Pertussis Epidemic) in at least a half century.  

 

During the summer and fall we revisited the outbreak (see here, and here), and in December the State of California released the following summary:

 

Pertussis Report

December 15, 2010

New in this report: Disease activity is slowing statewide, however relatively high numbers of cases continue to be reported each week

7,824 confirmed, probable and suspect cases of pertussis with onset from January 1 through December 15, 2010 reported to CDPH for a state rate of 20.0 cases/100,000.

527 new cases have been reported to CDPH since November 30 (Figure 1).

This is the most cases reported in 63 years when 9,394  cases were reported in 1947, a peak year,and the highest incidence in 52 years when a rate of 26.0 cases/100,000 was reported in 1958. Previously, the peak was in 2005 when there were 3,182 cases reported (Figure 2).

 

By the time all of the numbers were in for 2010, the number of cases had exceeded 9,000, including 10 deaths.  Since then, Pertussis numbers in California have remained elevated – particularly when compared to the the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s – but not record setting.

 

 

During my parent’s day, whooping cough infected more than a 250,000 Americans each year, and killed about 5,000 of them. All that began to change in the 1940s when the first whole-cell pertussis vaccine - combined with diphtheria and tetanus toxoids (DTP) - was introduced.

 

It what was such remarkable success, that by the time my daughter was born (1977) the number of reported cases had just reached a record-low of 1,010 cases, a decrease of 99%.

 

But since then, the number of cases has increased dramatically, with 2012 seeing nearly 50,000 cases reported in the United States.

Credit CDC

 

 

The reasons behind these increases are complex, and not entirely understood, but some factors are believed to be:

• lower vaccination uptakes in children and adults
• the move away from whole cell pertussis vaccines to safer (but somewhat less protective) acellular vaccines in the 1990s
• evolutionary changes in the Bordetella pertussis bacteria.

 

Whooping cough outbreaks are cyclical, and we see localized outbreaks increase every three to five years.  As it has been four years since the last major epidemic in California, there are concerns that this year could be another banner year for the disease.

 

This from the California Department of Public Health.

 

Whooping Cough Cases Increase

Date: 5/30/2014

Number: 14-051

Contact: Anita Gore - (916) 440-7259

SACRAMENTO

Dr. Ron Chapman, director of the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and state health officer, today warned that the number of pertussis (whooping cough) cases continue to increase in California.

CDPH has received reports of 2,649 cases of pertussis occurring from January through May 27, 2014, more than the number of cases reported in all of 2013. More than 800 cases were reported in April alone, the highest monthly count since the 2010 epidemic.

“The number of pertussis cases is likely to continue to increase,” says Dr. Ron Chapman. “As an important preventive measure, we recommend that pregnant women receive a pertussis vaccine booster during the third trimester of each pregnancy, and that infants be vaccinated as soon as possible.”

Infants too young to be fully immunized remain most vulnerable to severe and fatal cases of pertussis. Sixty-six of the hospitalized cases to date in 2014 have been in children four months of age or younger. Two infant deaths have been reported this year, one with onset in 2013, the second with onset in 2014.
Eighty-three percent of the cases have occurred in infants and children younger than 18 years of age. Of the pediatric cases, 8 percent who were younger than 6 months-old and 70 percent were 7 through 16 years of age.
It’s important that both children and adults are up-to-date on their immunizations. Booster shots for pertussis are critical because, unlike some other vaccine-preventable diseases, neither the pertussis disease nor vaccine offers lifelong immunity.

To prevent pertussis, CDPH recommends that: 

• Pregnant women receive a pertussis vaccine booster during the third trimester of each pregnancy, even if they’ve received it before.                        
• Infants be vaccinated against pertussis as soon as possible. The first dose is recommended at two months of age but can be given as early as 6 weeks of age during pertussis outbreaks. Children need five doses of pertussis vaccine by kindergarten (ages 4-6).
• California 7th grade students receive the pertussis vaccine booster as required by state law.
• Adults receive a one-time pertussis vaccine booster, especially if they are in contact with infants or if they are health care workers who may have contact with infants or pregnant women.

The symptoms of pertussis vary by age. For children, a typical case of pertussis starts with a cough and runny nose for one to two weeks. The cough then worsens and children may have rapid coughing spells that end with a whooping sound. Young infants may not have typical pertussis symptoms and may have no apparent cough. Parents may describe episodes in which the infant’s face turns red or purple. For adults, pertussis may simply be a cough that persists for several weeks.

Pertussis numbers will be updated every two weeks on the CDPH website.

 

  
Globally, Pertussis remains a serious public health issue, with the World Health Organization estimating that in 2008 about 16 million people were infected, and roughly 195,000 children died from the disease (cite).  And much like we discussed yesterday with measles, Pertussis can be reintroduced into a susceptible population by unvaccinated international travelers coming from areas where the disease is endemic.

 

But the truth is, with anywhere between 10,000 and 50,000 cases being reported in the United States each year, you don’t have to travel far to be exposed.  

 

Pertussis, after decades of near elimination, is a disease that is once again available locally.

Los Angeles M5.1: Californians Shaken & Hopefully Stirred

 

# 8413

 

Overnight, and as 2014’s National Tsunami Preparedness Week winds down,  the city of Los Angeles was rocked by a moderately strong earthquake (Mag 5.1), causing some minor damage and rattling nerves across a wide swath of Southern California.   Three hours after the quake, the Los Angeles Times was reporting 5.1 earthquake causes damage; some flee from homes.

 

While a far cry from `the big one’, California residents are advised by USGS seismologist Lucy Jones that there is about a 5% chance that this quake could be a foreshock, and that another – larger quake – could occur in the hours or days ahead (Larger L.A. earthquake possible after 5.1 temblor, USGS says).

 

First the Tectonic Summary from the USGS, then I’ll be back with a bit more about earthquake preparedness.

 

Tectonic Summary

A M5.1 earthquake occurred at 9:09PM on March 28, 2014, located 1 mile easy of La Habra, CA, or 4 miles north of Fullerton, CA. The event was felt widely throughout Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties.  It was preceded by two foreshocks, the larger of M3.6 at 8:03pm.  The demonstration earthquake early warning system provided 4 second warning in Pasadena. 

There have been 23 aftershocks as of 10:00PM on March 28, the largest of which was a M3.6 at 9:30PM, and was felt locally near the epicenter. The aftershock sequence may continue for several days to weeks, but will likely decay in frequency and magnitude as time goes by.

The maximum observed instrumental intensity was VII, recorded in the LA Habra and Brea areas, although the ShakeMap shows a wide area of maximum intensity of VI. The maximum reported intensity for the Did You Feel It? map was reported at VI in the epicentral area.

This sequence could be associated with the Puente Hills thrust (PHT).  The PHT is a blind thrust fault that extends from this region to the north and west towards the City of Los Angeles.  It caused the M5.9 1987 Oct. 1 Whittier Narrows earthquake. 

Previously, the M5.4 2008 Chino Hills earthquake occurred in this region.  It caused somewhat stronger shaking in Orange County and across the Los Angeles Basin. 

The moment tensor shows oblique faulting, with a north dipping plane that approximately aligns with the Puente Hills thrust.

 

Last December, in Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’, we looked at a presentation given by Dr. Jones at the  annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (held this year in San Francisco),  that emphasized that should the `big one’ hit Southern California, we could literally `lose’ Los Angeles.

 

She warned that the damage could be far greater, and last much longer, than most people believe.  While 99 out of 100 modern buildings might remain standing, the (often buried) infrastructure needed to provide water, electricity, internet connectivity, and natural gas – the lifeblood -  to the region could be devastated (see CBS News report).

 

If this sounds like hyperbole, in 2010 (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) we looked at a study that suggested that Southern California may be more overdue for another major quake than previously thought, and in the following year (see Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake) we looked at a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that endeavored to gauge the crippling impact that a highly feasible (and long overdue) 7.8 magnitude Southern California earthquake would have on jobs and local businesses.

Download PDF file

A quake of this magnitude, they estimate, could affect  430,000 businesses and 4.5 million workers and deliver a devastating – and prolonged – blow to the local (and national) economy.

 

For a comprehensive guide on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.  

 

As you’ll notice, Los Angeles recommends having more than just a 72 hour emergency kit.

It isn’t enough to have a kit, and a plan during an earthquake. You need to know what to do to protect life and limb while the shaking is going on.  And for that, we have the ever-growing Great Shakeout Drill (see  NPM13: A Whole Lotta Shakeouts Going On).

 

While there is admittedly a 95% chance that there won’t be a large aftershock to this quake, it only takes being caught unprepared for a single major disaster to ruin your entire day.

 

For more information on emergency preparedness, I would invite you  to visit:

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

And some of my preparedness blogs, including:

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

The Gift Of Preparedness: 2013

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

California Quakes : Concrete Concerns

SCEC Interactive Map – Significant Southern California Quakes

 

 

#7855

 

Yesterday the Los Angeles Times ran an extensive report on an in-house analysis of a number of large, and extremely vulnerable-during-an-earthquake, concrete buildings in that city.  The authors (Rong-Gong Lin II, Rosanna Xia and Doug Smith) state that the city has been aware of the dangers for decades, but has refused to require building owners to retrofit their properties for earthquake safety, despite the fact that the area is believed `overdue’ for a major earthquake.

 

It’s an informative report on seismic risks, earthquake resistant building techniques, and local politics. Well worth reading.

 

CONCRETE RISKS

The city has rejected calls to make a list of concrete buildings at risk of collapsing in a major quake, but a Times analysis finds there could be more than 1,000 — many of them homes and offices.

By Rong-Gong Lin II, Rosanna Xia and Doug Smith

October 13, 2013

More than 1,000 old concrete buildings in Los Angeles and hundreds more throughout the county may be at risk of collapsing in a major earthquake, according to a Times analysis.

By the most conservative estimate, as many as 50 of these buildings in the city alone would be destroyed, exposing thousands to injury or death.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

While admittedly a local story, Los Angeles isn’t the only major U.S. city with concrete buildings that lies in an active seismic zone; Memphis, St. Louis, Charleston, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Salt Lake City  . . . even New York City, all have varying degrees of seismic risks.  

 

Seismic Hazard Map – Credit USGS

But the West Coast, probably more than any other region of the United States, is viewed as being at particular risk.

 

In 2010 (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) we looked at a study that suggested that Southern California may be more overdue for another major quake than previously thought, and in the following year (see Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake) we looked at a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that endeavored to gauge the crippling impact that a highly feasible (and long overdue) 7.8 magnitude Southern California earthquake would have on jobs and local businesses.

Download PDF file

A quake of this magnitude, they estimate, could affect  430,000 businesses and 4.5 million workers and deliver a devastating – and prolonged – blow to the local (and national) economy.

 

For a comprehensive guide on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

Large earthquakes can also generate massive tsunamis, which can travel thousands of miles in a matter of a few hours.  We’ve looked at the United State’s tsunami risks recently, in NPM13: The USGS West Coast Tsunami Scenario Report & East Coast Tsunami Threats.

 

It isn’t enough to have a kit, and a plan during an earthquake. You need to know what to do to protect life and limb while the shaking is going on.  And for that, we have the ever-growing Great Shakeout Drill (see  NPM13: A Whole Lotta Shakeouts Going On).

 

 

Later this week (Thurs, Oct 17 at 10:17am) , California, along with many other states, territories, and countries will hold their annual Great Shakeout Drill.  Millions of residents, from the United States and Canada, to New Zealand, Italy, and Japan, will take part in this yearly Drop, Cover, & Hold On drill. A video, demonstrating the technique is available on the California Shakeout Youtube Channel.

 

For more information on emergency preparedness, I would invite you  to visit:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And for some earlier blogs on the seismic hazards in the United States, and around the world, you may wish to revisit:

Just A Matter Of Time

Academics Debate Odds Of Tokyo Earthquake

UN Agency Warns On Global Seismic Risks

 

A West Coast Shake Up Call

Los Angeles Seismograph 7:10 AM EST – Credit ABC TV7

 

# 6780

 

Residents in Southern California and the Baja Peninsula were on the receiving end of a significant seismic shock overnight, as a 6.3 temblor struck 160 miles off the coast at 2:36 am (local time).

 

No tsunami was generated, and no warnings went out from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. Light to moderate shaking (Max CDI=V) was reported in San Diego and Ensenada according to the USGS.

 

There were originally reports of a second 6.1 shock, but that may have been a false reading as it no longer appears on the USGS earthquake feed.

The epicenters of these quakes were well off shore, and not along the famous San Andreas Fault which runs through much of California.

 

The USGS posted this Tectonic Summary.

 

The December 14, 2012 M 6.3 earthquake 250 km southwest of Avalon, California occurred as a result of shallow normal faulting within the oceanic lithosphere of the Pacific plate. This event is located some 400-450 km west-southwest of the plate boundary between the Pacific and North America plates – the San Andreas fault system in southern California – and is not associated with that fault system.

Instead, this earthquake represents intraplate faulting along northeast-southwest trending normal faults within the crust of the Pacific plate, just to the west of California’s continental shelf. The causative fault is not known at this time. At the location of this event, the Pacific plate moves to the northwest with respect to the North America plate at a velocity of approximately 54 mm/yr.

While the broad region surrounding the December 14, 2012 event experiences frequent earthquakes along the San Andreas and associated faults in southern California, the area offshore and within 250 km of this earthquake has not hosted any events greater than M 6 over the past 40 years. The largest nearby earthquake was a M 5.1 event 200 km to the northeast in June of 2004, 80 km west of the border between the US and Baja California. A M 3.3 earthquake struck approximately 35 km to the northeast in April 1981, representing the closest event in the USGS earthquake catalog.

 

While this morning’s wake up calls are unlikely to have caused any significant damage, they are a reminder that much of California (along with much of the world) is seismically active.

 

In 2010 (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) scientists using better tools and techniques, determined that big earthquakes occur far more frequently along the San Andreas fault than was previously believed.

 

Major quakes have occurred – on average – every 88 years along the southern section of this fault line, or three times more frequently than prior estimates.

 

Which makes southern California long overdue for `the big one’.

 

Shakeout.org, which promotes yearly earthquake drills and education around the country, has been a leader in earthquake preparedness in California. 

 

And the county of Los Angeles – recognizing the many natural disaster threats that face their residents – has produced an excellent L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

Well worth downloading, and using, no matter where you live.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters, I would invite you visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

And finally, some of my own preparedness articles include:

 

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift of Preparedness 2012

LA: A Not So Gentle Reminder

ABC LA Quake Cam 13:20 EST  8/8/12

# 6480

 

On the heels of yesterday’s 4.4 magnitude temblor centered in Yorba Linda, California we’ve two more moderately-sized jolts this morning in roughly the same area, coming in first - at 4.5 magnitude – quickly followed by another at 3.4 magnitude.

There no reports as yet of damage or injuries, and at these magnitudes, little is expected.  But these temblors serve as a not-so-gentle reminder that Los Angeles is at risk of much stronger quakes.

 

 

With National Preparedness Month less than 3 weeks away, this seems an opportune time to remind folks that seismic risks extend far beyond California. While large earthquakes in the eastern half of the country are comparatively rare, they do happen.

 

As you can see by the map below, most of the United States is seismically active – with Alaska, Hawaii, the west coast, and the Midwest seeing the most – and strongest, quakes.

USGS map

 

Last year, in Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake, we looked at a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that endeavored to gauge the crippling impact that a highly feasible (and long overdue) 7.8 magnitude Southern California earthquake would have on jobs and local businesses.

 

Download PDF file

A quake of this magnitude, they estimate, could affect  430,000 businesses and 4.5 million workers and deliver a devastating – and prolonged – blow to the local economy.

 

While huge death tolls are considered unlikely in this scenario, the untimely demise of thousands of unprepared businesses is all but assured.

 

This latest seismic activity makes this a pretty good time to remind my readers about the study from 2010 (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) that suggests that Southern California may be more overdue for another major quake than previously thought.

 

Since we can’t prevent earthquakes, or predict them, the only recourse is to prepare for them . . .  as individuals, businesses, and communities.

 

 

For a comprehensive guide on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

The Great California Shakeout website invites you to participate once again in this year’s state-wide earthquake drill on October 18th at 10:18 a.m. For regions outside of California, you can check here for Shakeout Drills in your area.

 

And lastly, to become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: I would invite you visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake

 

 

# 5643

 

Japan, a little more than 100 days after their massive 9.0 earthquake and Tsunami, finds itself in recession with hundreds of thousands of people either displaced from their homes or out of work, and much of their manufacturing base in disarray.

 

The damage from these types of disasters continue long after the shaking stops.

 

Over the past 18 months we’ve seen major earthquakes along the Pacific rim ranging from Chile, to New Zealand, to Japan. Spared, thus far, have been the Pacific coasts of North America.

 

But California, Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alaska all have significant seismic risks. 

 

Accordingly, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report yesterday that estimated the crippling impact a highly feasible (and long overdue) 7.8 magnitude Southern California earthquake would have on jobs and local businesses.

 

Download PDF file

 

 

A quake of this magnitude, they estimate, could affect  430,000 businesses and 4.5 million workers and deliver a devastating – and prolonged – blow to the local economy.

 

While huge death tolls are considered unlikely in this scenario, the untimely demise of thousands of unprepared businesses is all but assured.

 

As the following story in the Los Angeles Times points out, it is imperative that local businesses prepare now for an inevitable quake.

 

Else they risk not only their own economic future, but the futures of their employees and of the local economy.

 

Southland businesses urged to get ready for 'The Big One' -- a 7.8 earthquake

June 21, 2011 |  3:03 pm

 

 

Yesterday’s announcement makes this a pretty good time to remind my readers about the study last year (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) that suggests that Southern California may be more overdue for another major quake than previously thought.

 

For more on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

 

And finally, from  the USGS Great Southern California Shakeout website,  we’ve this 4 and 1/2 minute video called Preparedness Now (Streaming | Video) that  “depicts the realistic outcome of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault in Southern California.”

 

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

The Great California Shakeout

 

 

 

 

# 4993

 

On Thursday morning, October 21st at 10:21 am (local time) millions of Californians will participate in a statewide earthquake drill called The Great California Shakeout.

 

 

The shakeout.org website asks  Californians to register, and to take part in this annual disaster drill.  You’ll find plenty of suggestions on how to participate – at home, at work, or at school – on this site.

 

A number of radio & TV stations across the state will play audio and/or video earthquake simulations at precisely 10:30am to add authenticity to the drill.

 

You can also download these presentations from Youtube and from the Shakeout.org website to play at 10:21 in your home, to help the drill along.

 

 

As you may recall, a couple of months ago I mentioned this upcoming drill in Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault.

 

The main thrust of that blog, however, was on concerns that big earthquakes may happen more frequently in California than previously believed. 

 

Instead of occurring every 250 years, they have happened – on average – every 88 years.

 

So California is `overdue’ for a big quake, and that makes this drill, and public preparedness, all the more important.

 

For more on earthquake and general disaster preparedness, you might wish to look at these essays as well.

 

 

The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

FEMA Asks: Are You Earthquake Prepared?

Inside My Bug Out Bag

Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign

 

 

Not to be left out, residents in the Central United States are being asked to participate in the first Central US Shakeout next April (which is National Earthquake Month).

 

 

For more on Earthquake and general disaster preparedness, you might want to revisit a blog of mine from earlier this summer.

 

Disaster Preparedness Videos

California Reports 9th Pertussis Fatality of 2010

 

 

# 4911

 

 

The last time I updated the California Whooping Cough epidemic was in late July, and at that time 6 children had already died from this preventable disease. 

 

As of the September 14th report, 3 more babies have died. California is on track to see the worst Pertussis (Whooping Cough) outbreak in 55 years.

 

Pertussis rates going the wrong way 

 

 

As you can see, in the early 1980s Pertussis was practically eliminated – thanks to the introduction of an effective Pertussis vaccine in the 1940s. Before that was available, several thousand children died each year in the United States from Whooping cough.

 

But the incidence of Whooping cough has been creeping back up over the past 30 years (and not just in California), and large regional outbreaks occur every few years.

 

That resurgence is due in part to the reluctance of some parents to get their kids vaccinated, but is also due to a lack of adults and adolescents getting their recommended booster shots.

 

As of 9/14/2010, California reports 4,017 confirmed, probable and suspect cases of pertussis for 2010, making for a state rate of 10.3 cases/100,000.

 

This is the most cases since 1955 when 4,949 cases were reported,and the highest incidence since 1962, when a rate of 10.9 cases/100,000 was reported.

 

Up until now, the worst year in the past 40 was in 2005 when 3,182 cases reported.

 

Nine infant deaths have been reported of which  8 (89%) were Hispanic.

 

Eight of the fatalities were among infants  less than 2 months of age who had not received any doses of the Pertussis vaccine.  The remainder was a 2-month old preemie that had received only one dose of the vaccine just 15 days prior to falling ill.

 

Prevention is through vaccination, but since the vaccine offered is `inactivated’ (contains no live bacteria), it requires repeated doses during childhood and a booster shot as adults.

 

 

The CDC has a simple, 2-page pamphlet on the DTaP vaccine.

 

 

 

Although the numbers are small, in recent years an increasing number of parents are filing “personal belief exemptions”, to avoid vaccinating their children.

 

California, like all states, requires that all students be vaccinated against Whooping Cough before entering school, but parents can ask for their children to be exempted from the program if vaccines run contrary to their religious or personal beliefs.

 

The following information comes from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

 

VACCINE EXEMPTIONS

It is law in all US states that children be properly immunized before attending school.  However, in addition to medical exemptions offered in each state, 48 states allow for religious exemptions and 21^a states allow personal belief exemptions for daycare and school.

 

(Click to view)

Other states, including Idaho, Arkansas, and Texas are reporting outbreaks of Pertussis this year as well.

 

Whether due to activism or apathy, a declining rate of vaccination for preventable diseases like Whooping Cough will almost certainly lead to more cases – and more deaths – in our communities down the road.

 

For another perspective on all this, you might want to read Maryn McKenna’s post on Pertussis from last July.

 

Whooping cough: Back, with a vengeance