Effect Measure’s Farewell Blog

 

 

# 4572

 

 

 

Earlier today I was alerted that the Revere’s at Effect Measure, after more than five years and more than 3500 blogs, would be `closing up shop’.

 

Nothing lasts forever, of course.  But that doesn’t remove the palpable tinge of sadness that comes with this news.

 

Five plus years is a long run on the Internet, particularly given the number of in-depth blogs that have graced the two incarnations of Effect Measure.   It takes a lot of work – and a lot of your life – to keep a serious blog going day-in and day-out over the years.

 

The Reveres will apparently continue to contribute from time to time to The Pump Handle, and so they really aren’t going away.   

 

But we shall miss them just the same.

 

They’ve been very kind to this blogger over the years, and much of what I’ve learned about the science behind influenza was derived from their writings.  They leave behind a veritable treasure trove of good science information.

 

I’m very grateful to them  on a multitude of levels.

 

There will be more details in the week to come, but here is the farewell message from the Reveres.

 

We bid you farewell

Category: Blog • Personal

It's been a long time coming but the time has come. Effect Measure is closing up shop, after 5 and a half years, 3 million visits and 5.1 million page views of some 3500. You commented on them some 37,000 times. It's been a grand ride but to all things there is a season. It's time to simplify my life and while my family has had me all along, at times science got short shrift. Now my time is getting short and I want to turn my attention to my research, the other polar star of my life. "Revere" will continue to post occasionally on Effect Measure's successor site, The Pump Handle (TPH), which will hold down the public health anchor position after EM is gone. We'll provide more details later this week when we officially hand off this spot to our friends and colleagues at TPH. Our archive will be folded into theirs, with details to follow when they are firmed up.

(Continue . . . )

Referral: Effect Measure On One Year Ago

 

 

# 4518

 

 

 

My absences from writing this blog over the past 4+ years have been few and far between, and nearly always due to my twice yearly treks to Missouri to see my Lyme specialist.  

 

As luck would have it, It exactly a year ago today that I was on a brief hiatus to see my doctor when the first reports of a strange, new swine flu began to emerge.  I managed to return by April 24th (see Playing Catch Up) and over the ensuing 6 days posted more than 70 updates to this blog.

 

Fortunately, other bloggers were well onto the story by the time I made it back, including Crof at Crofsblog and the Reveres at Effect Measure.

 

Revere takes a look back at those hectic early reports, and reminds us that the duty of public health agencies is to prepare for and prevent the worst case scenario.   

 

Read Effect Measure’s . . .

 

A year ago on the blog

Referral: Effect Measure On The `Canadian Problem’

 

 

# 4482

 

 

This morning Revere at Effect Measure takes an epidemiologist’s view of the recent PLoS journal article on the so-called `Canadian Problem’, a subject I wrote about earlier this week in CIDRAP On The Canadian Vaccine Controversy.

 

Did getting vaccinated with seasonal flu up the risk of pandemic flu infection?

Referral: Effect Measure’s Open Letter To The Pandemic Virus

 

 

# 4476

 

 

No one appreciates a well written snark more than I, so it is with gleeful hands I type a referral to today’s Effect Measure.

 

Open letter to the pandemic influenza virus

Referral: Effect Measure On The JAMA Herd Immunity Study

 

 

 

# 4420

 

 

This morning Revere over at Effect Measure takes a long look though epidemiologist’s eyes at the recently published study on childhood flu vaccinations and community `herd immunity’.

 

More importantly, he looks at some of the myriad difficulties involved in conducting randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

 

It’s a fascinating read.  Highly recommended.

 

Flu vaccines, herd immunity and randomized trials

Superbug Blog Honored

 

 

# 4321

 

 

As I pointed out in Contrarians At The Gate, good science and health coverage is often overshadowed by tabloid style reporting (a polite euphemism, to be sure).

 

So I’m always quick to point out the good stuff.

 

For the second time in the past few months, Maryn McKenna’s superb Superbug Blog has been named a Top 50 blog by a health related website.  It is a well deserved honor.

 

 

SUPERBUG named a Top 50 public health blog

 

Constant readers, the website The Science of Health has named SUPERBUG one of its Top 50 public health blogs. I'm flattered to say we're in excellent company — the other blogs listed there are very good. Please go take a look.

 

Last October Maryn’s blog was similarly honored by RNCentral.com as one of the "50 Excellent Public Health Blogs" on the Internet. 

 

Kudos also extend to Effect Measure and The Pump Handle, along with 47 other deserving honorees.  If you haven’t checked them out, you should.  There’s a lot of good reading in both of these lists.

 

And a reminder – Maryn’s book SUPERBUG:The Fatal Menace of MRSA is due out on March 23rd, and can be pre-ordered now from Amazon.com.   

 

I’ve already ordered my copy, and look forward to its arrival.

Referral: Effect Measure On The COE Hearings

 

 

# 4301

 

 

A couple of weeks ago I referred to the overwrought charges being levied against the WHO (World Health Organization) over their declaration and handling of the pandemic as a `witch hunt’  (see WHO To Review Their Pandemic Response).

 

Since then, the political grandstanding has reached bizarre (and dangerous) heights, culminating with the Council of Europe hearings earlier this week  (see CIDRAP Summary Of The Council Of Europe Hearings).

 

Today the Reveres of Effect Measure have a scathing assessment of the leader of the inquisition, Wolfgang Wodarg.

 

While rated PG for language, this is the `must read’ of the day.

 

 

Fire in the hole: Wolfgang Wodarg and WHO

Referral: Effect Measure On The WHO Controversy

 

 

# 4250

 

 

Yesterday I weighed in on the controversy and conspiracy theories swirling around the World Health Organization regarding their pandemic response, and today one of the Reveres takes a hard look at the same subject at Effect Measure.

 

Read:

 

WHO prepares to don a hair shirt

 

Highly recommended.

Radio Interviews Available For Download

 

 

# 4245

 

 

Yesterday’s Radio Sandy Springs interview of Revere from Effect Measure, and last week’s interview of Professor Vincent Racaniello of the Virology Blog are now archived and available for download or listening to.

 

These interviews, conducted by Sharon Sanders of FluTrackers, each run an hour and are both entertaining and informative. 

 

01/11/10 Guest Revere of Effect Measure

Sharon Sander interviews one of the Reveres of the Effect Measure Blog

01/04/10 Guest Vincent Racaniello, PhD

Sharon Sander interviews Vincent Racaniello, PhD

 

You’ll also find these older interviews archived and available as well.

 

11/02/09 Guest Dr. David Fedson

08/17/09 Guest William Schaffner, MD

08/10/09 Guest Author John Barry

06/29/09 Guest Gregory Härtl of the WHO

05/26/09 Guest Dr. Michael Osterholm

05/18/09 Guest Dr. David Fedson

`Revere’ Of Effect Measure Interviewed Today

 

 

# 4242

 

 

Later today one of the Reveres from Effect Measure will be interviewed on Radio Sandy Springs  by Sharon Sanders of FluTrackers.  

 

Which one, you ask?   Sorry . . .  that’s above my pay grade.

 

`Revere’ is one of the editors of Effect Measure, and they describe themselves this way: they are senior public health scientists and practitioners. Paul Revere was a member of the first local Board of Health in the United States (Boston, 1799). The Editors sign their posts "Revere" to recognize the public service of a professional forerunner better known for other things.

Of course, those of us in Flublogia recognize the Reveres of Effect Measure as being dispensers of solid scientific information and clear explanations about influenza, public health matters, and assorted trivia.

 

They are also no strangers to controversy, are possessed of a wonderfully warped sense of humor, and speak their minds freely.  So this should be a lively interview.

 

 

The show will air at 4pm EST, on Atlanta's 1620 AM, and will be simulcast on the Internet on Radio Sandy Springs.

 

If you are unable to listen at 4pm, the show is archived for downloading within a couple of days. 

 

This the latest in series of high profile interviews conducted by Sharon on Radio Sandy Springs.  Over the past year she has had Dr. David Fedson,  Dr. Michael Osterholm,  Dr William Schaffner, writer and historian John Barry, and most recently Professor Vincent Racaniello as her guests, among others.

 

If you missed these shows, the follow links will take you to the archive, where you can listen online or download the MP3 files.

 

11/02/09 Guest Dr. David Fedson

08/17/09 Guest William Schaffner, MD

08/10/09 Guest Author John Barry

06/29/09 Guest Gregory Härtl of the WHO

05/26/09 Guest Dr. Michael Osterholm

05/18/09 Guest Dr. David Fedson

 

Last week’s interview with Vincent Racaniello should be posted soon.

      *       *       *      *      *      *      *      *      *      *      *

Radio Sandy Springs 1620 AM, is a low-powered Atlanta based talk radio station that simulcasts on the Internet.   An archive of recent Infectious Disease Hour shows may be accessed here.

A Pair Of Sunday Referrals

 

 

# 4213

 

 

One of the best things about Flublogia – this little corner of the Internet concerned with all things `fluish’ - is that we have such a wealth of talented reporters, flu-forum newshounds, and bloggers.

 

While I’ve said it many times, it bears repeating: I couldn’t produce this blog without the considerable work, assistance, and generosity of others in Flublogia.  

 

Although the news is a bit slow this bitterly cold (even in Florida) Sunday, I can heartily recommend visits to Effect Measure and DemfromCt’s Daily Kos columns today.  

 

First, Dem has a look back at some of the major health stories of 2009 in:

 

The Year Of Health And Politics

 

 

 

And Revere of Effect Measure brings us his take on Don McNeil’s NYT’s piece (which I blogged on earlier today) where he makes some important observations and adds an important addendum.

 

Swine flu 2009: what went right and tip of the hat

 

 

 

Since it would be unseemly for them to hat-tip themselves, I’ll do it for them.  

 

Much of what I know about the science of influenza I learned from reading Effect Measure, and I’m sure that many others in Flublogia would echo the same sentiments.

 

At or near the top of any list of new media that has helped promote a better understanding of the issues and the science behind influenza (along with other emerging infectious diseases), Effect Measure must certainly reside.

 

 

For more background on some of the reporters, newshounds, flu forums, and bloggers that make up Flublogia, you might wish to look at three essays that I try to update, and re-run at least once a year.

 

Reliable Sources In Flublogia

Newshounds: They Cover The Pandemic Front

Thanksgiving Roll Call 2009

A Double Referral: CIDRAP & Effect Measure

 

 

# 4162

 

 

While I’ve been wrestling with a cranky Internet connection (the new modem appears to be working . . . ), and the medical issues surrounding my Dad and Sister’s car wreck (both are in rehab, and making improvements), two of the most cogent voices in Flublogia made some important comments this morning.

Specifically,  Michael Osterholm, Director of CIDRAP, released a CIDRAP Business Source column (available by subscription) where he takes on the widespread notions that the pandemic of 2009 has been `mild’, and that it is all but over. 

 

 

Making sense of the H1N1 pandemic: What's going on?

Dec 14, 2009 (CIDRAP Business Source Osterholm Briefing) By Michael T. Osterholm - As much as we'd all like to put behind us the tale of this H1N1 pandemic, I'm afraid it's too soon to make that call. And I've concluded that we need to update how we define pandemic severity, because by certain measures this one is surely not mild.

 

Revere over at Effect Measure expounds on Osterholm’s well thought out ideas in a blog this morning entitled:

 

Mild pandemic? Bite your tongue.

 

Both are highly recommended.

 

There is a lot of nonsense being published on the Internet (and even in main stream media) regarding the H1N1 pandemic.  A creeping tabloidization of the news. The litmus test for what many are publishing appears not to be accuracy or reasonableness, but what will drive the most traffic to a site or will sell papers.

 

There are cynical political and ideological agendas at play, particularly from the conspiracy and anti-vaccine crowds.  And then there are those who are just out to sell something; colloidal silver products, over priced protective equipment, etc.

 

P.T. Barnum would have loved the Internet.

 

There are reasonable, educated, and experienced voices out there, and Revere and Osterholm are two of the best.   Both are real-world epidemiologists, and have worked extensively in the public health arena.  

 

They know of what they speak.

 

You’ll find others in my sidebar.   People who take the subjects of emerging infectious diseases and preparedness, and their job as bloggers, seriously. 

 

A pity that less reasonable voices are often the loudest and more widely heard.

 

 

And while I’m at it, a reminder about the HR Toolkit released (for free) to the business community by CIDRAP, based on the lessons learned from this fall’s H1N1 Business Summit.

 

Referral: Effect Measure On The BMJ Tamiflu Story

 

 

# 4144

 

Two days ago the BMJ published a review by the Cochrane Group of previous studies that looked at the efficacy of Tamiflu in the treatment of seasonal influenza in healthy adults.

 

The bottom line (according to Cochrane) was that Tamiflu was unproven to have much benefit for healthy adults with uncomplicated seasonal flu.

 

Something that, as far as I know, has never been in dispute.

Some aspects of the media (who apparently have difficulty reading for comprehension) have jumped all over this review and are now using it to demonize Tamiflu, Roche, and anyone who prescribes it for pandemic influenza.

 

While there are certainly unanswered questions, and a call for the release of internal data from Roche, the anecdotal evidence gained from years of clinical use is pretty strong that Tamiflu is beneficial for cases of severe influenza.

 

The WHO and the CDC continue to recommend the use of Tamiflu (oseltamivir) for high risk individuals, or serious cases of influenza, as well they should.  When it comes to antivirals for the novel H1N1 virus, the cupboard is nearly bare. 

 

If there were better drugs, I’m sure we’d use them.  For now, Tamiflu is about as good as it gets.  

 

And even a moderate reduction in symptoms – for someone in serious distress from influenza – could be life saving.

 

Revere at Effect Measure dissects the BMJ study, and comes away less than impressed.   Highly recommended.

 

The Tamiflu doesn't work non-story

Referral: Effect Measure On Flu Vaccine Safety

 

# 4128

 

 

Revere at Effect Measure this morning tackles a subject I gave some attention to yesterday; the safety of flu vaccines (see A Shot Of Reality).

 

We’ve both pointed out that while the data to date has been encouraging, rare adverse events are certainly possible with this or any other vaccine.   Still, based on what we know right now, the flu vaccine appears very safe.  

 

Since we have a genuine pandemic threat which has sickened millions and killed thousands, getting the vaccine makes abundant sense even if it does entail some miniscule risk.

 

Revere weighs in with his reservations on the reporting and surveillance system in place, and the relationship between vaccine manufacturers and the CDC.  

 

Follow the link below and read:

 

Flu vaccine safety

Referral: Effect Measure On Seroprevalence Studies

 

# 4109

 

 

If you want to understand an influenza outbreak, you need to take blood samples from a representative group of the population and check them for antibodies. 

If you want to understand why that’s important, you need to listen to an epidemiologist. 

I’m not one, but Revere at Effect Measure is.  

 

And today we get a great explanation about what we already know about this flu, and what we hope to learn, from the serological studies that have been done or are underway.

 

Studying how many are infected with swine flu

 

 

Some of my earlier blogs on this subject include:

UK: H1N1 Serology Tests Reveal Significant Asymptomatic Rate

New Zealand To Conduct Seroprevalence Studies

Effect Measure: Happy Blogiversary

 

 

# 4082

 

As I spent yesterday afternoon in the dentist’s chair, and last night in a vicodin induced haze, I missed the fact that yesterday was Effect Measure’s 5th blogiversary.

 

Since most of what I know about the science of influenza I gleaned from their terrific blog, it would be churlish on my part not to offer my heartfelt congratulations, and thanks, for their combined hard work.

If Effect Measure isn’t already a daily stop on your Internet rounds, you are missing the best public health blog on the web. 

 

If you read the comments to their blogiversary blog, you’ll find I’m not alone in this appraisal.  So go join in the celebration and read:

 

Fifth blogiversary

Referral: EM On Thanksgiving & Swine Flu

 

# 4078

 

 

Although it is still early in the day, the `must read’ thus far is Effect Measure’s take on the multi-generational population mixing that is an annual event here in the United States;  Thanksgiving.

 

For an epidemiologist’s questions and concerns regarding this year’s holiday, read:

 

Thanksgiving and swine flu

 

And with the winter holidays (including the largest annual human migration on earth, Chinese New Years) ahead, what happens here with Thanksgiving may well be an early harbinger of what happens in other countries this winter as well.

Stay tuned.

Referral: EM on Swine Flu In China

 

 

# 4064

 

 

For anyone who has doubts about China’s ability, willingness, and sheer ruthlessness in hiding public health threats I would invite you to read Karl Taro Greenfeld’s  terrific account of the SARS outbreak; The China Syndrome: The True Story of the 21st Century's First Great Epidemic.

 

Since that 2002-03 outbreak China has made repeated promises regarding transparency and international cooperation, but few observers have a warm and fuzzy feeling about their surveillance and reporting. 

 

Last week, Zhong Nanshan – a highly respected respiratory disease specialist on the mainland – accused Beijing of covering up the full extent of the Swine Flu outbreak (see Zhong Nanshan On China’s Death Toll).

 

Twenty-four hours later the Health Ministry responded,  vowing to punish anyone covering up H1N1 fatalities ( see China Warns Local Officials Not To Conceal Cases).

 

While we may get revised totals from the Health Ministry at some point, along with some sacrificial heads on a platter, the prospects of getting good data out of China are still pretty slim. 

 

Which bring us to Revere’s piece on Chinese transparency in Effect Measure today.

 

Swine flu in China: no problem

Referral: EM on The common cold and influenza

 

 

# 4012

 

Revere at Effect Measure today looks at some recent reports that suggest that when the common cold (Rhinovirus) is circulating it might reduce the spread of the influenza virus. 

The idea made headlines a couple of days ago, and was covered in The New Scientist by Debora MacKenzie.

 

Common cold may hold off swine flu

• 12 November 2009 by Debora MacKenzie

A VIRUS that causes the common cold may be saving people from swine flu. If this intriguing idea turns out to be true, it would explain why swine flu's autumn wave has been slow to take off in some countries and point to new ways to fight flu.

 

"It is really surprising that there has not been more pandemic flu activity in many European countries," says Arnold Monto, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

 

It is really surprising that there has not been more pandemic flu activity in many European countries.

 

In France, flu cases rose in early September, then stayed at about 160 per 100,000 people until late October, when numbers started rising again. The delayed rise was puzzling, says Jean-Sebastien Casalegno of the French national flu lab at the University of Lyon.

(Continue . . . )

 

Read Revere’s take in:

The common cold and influenza

Referral: Effect Measure On Statins

 

 

# 3920

 

Revere over at Effect Measure has a terrific piece today about the frustrating lack of research on statins, which are suspected by some researchers to harbor promise as treatment for influenza.

 

I’d have recommended this blog, even if there wasn’t a very kind hat tip to AFD in it (thanks guys!). 

 

I’ll just step aside and send you to:

 

Statins for influenza. Why don't we know if it works yet?

Category: Infectious disease • Influenza treatment

Statins for influenza are in the news again, this time because of a paper given at the Annual Meeting of the Infectious Disease Society of America (IDSA). We'll get to it in a moment, but first a little background.

Read on »

 

 

As a reminder, Dr. David Fedson will be interviewed on Radio Sandy Springs by Sharon Sanders of FluTrackers this coming Monday, at 4pm (EST).    No doubt, statins will be part of the discussion.