Referral: Response From KSA MOH On Crofsblog

 

 

# 7800

 

A couple of weeks ago Crawford Kilian of Crofsblog wrote an open letter to the Saudi Ministry of Health (see A memo to the Saudi Minister of Health) regarding their policies on releasing information on MERS-CoV.    Today, the KSA MOH has responded to his letter, and Crof has posted it on his blog site.

 

Follow the link to read:

 

A memo from the Saudi Minister of Health about MERS

Earlier this month, I posted A memo to the Saudi Minister of Health, asking for more information on MERS cases. Today I received an extended reply, which I'm happy to share with you. I welcome your comments.

(Continue . . . )

MERS Referrals: Three For The Price Of One

Coronavirus – CDC PHIL

 

 

 

# 7749

 

Three quick referrals this morning, just in case you missed them.

 

First, Crof has a follow up comment to his memo to the Minister of Health post Sunday, from a doctor working at a hospital in Saudi Arabia.   It’s a very revealing (and brave) comment.  I’ll not spoil it, and only suggest you go and read: Saudi Arabia: A note from a MERS hospital.

 

Second (& third) are a pair of posts by Dr. Ian Mackay on his Virology Down Under blog.

First Ian charts the steep rise in MERS-CoV cases over the summer in: MERS-CoV cases continue to climb

 

And next, he takes a very early look at the seasonal trends of MERS-Cases in:  Can MERS-CoV seasonality tell us anything about acquisition of MERS?

All three highly recommended.

A New Look And A Referral

 

 

# 7744

 

Having had the margins of my blog format go inexplicably out-of-sync overnight, and with all of my attempts to repair it unsuccessful, I’ve decided that it was time to upgrade the look of this blog.  

I’ve selected a `cleaner’ looking interface, and will be tweaking it bit over the next few days. So if you see some `strange’ looking color/format changes over the next few days, please bear with me as I make these changes.

While I’m otherwise indisposed, if you’ve not already read it, I’d invite you to read Crof’s masterful post from last night:

 

 

A memo to the Saudi Minister of Health

From: Crawford Kilian

To: Abdullah Abdulaziz M. Al Rabeeah, MD, Minister of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Subject: Effective communication about MERS

Referral: Crof On The CBS Risk Assessment

 

Heat map – Credit Laidback Al FluTrackers

# 7217

 

Three days ago, in Chinese Science Bulletin: Early H7N9 Risk Analysis, we looked a a sobering threat analysis of the H7N9 virus by a group of researchers from the China National Avian Influenza Professional Laboratory in Qingdao, China.

 

Crof has managed to contact the corresponding author of the study, Professor Ji-Ming Chen, and has posted (with permission) their illuminating exchange on his blog.

 

By all means, if you haven’t done so already, surf on over and read:

 

H7N9: From the authors of the CSB risk analysis

May 01, 2013

The risk analysis published in Chinese Science Bulletin is so far the most detailed we have, and I've commented on it here and here. The article drew criticism and speculation—criticism about its methods, and speculation about the political implications of its publication in China.

(Continue . . .)

 

Keeping Track Of The H7N9 Outbreak

ECDC Map

 

 

# 7129

 

With the confirmed case count nearing 50, and those numbers in all likelihood to rise, keeping track of individual cases, and outcomes, has become a demanding, and at times, frustrating job.

 

Gleaning data from press releases and news stories (which can vary in the type, and reliability, of data), flublogians around the world are trying various means to keep information straight and organized.  

 

Aiding flu-literate journalists like Helen Branswell, Maggie Fox, Jason Gale, and Dr. Richard Besser and bloggers like Crof and Maryn McKenna, and myself, there’s a small army of (mostly volunteer) analysts crunching numbers and making charts available online.

 

Dr. Ian M. Mackay from the University of Queensland in Australia maintains the  Virology Down Under website and blog, where he is keeps tabs of mew cases and analyzes the data  (link).

 

As you can see by his terrific chart below, the dataset is beginning to get crowded.  But the trend in onset dates revealed by this graphic provides a much better sense of how this outbreak is progressing. You’ll find more than just charts on the VDU H7N9 website, and so it is worth visiting every day.

 

Similarly, the newshounds on FluTrackers are continually scouring the Internet for new case reports, which Sharon Sanders uses to update their running list of confirmed and suspected cases.

 

 

2013 Human Case List for Confirmed and Suspected H7N9 Type Influenza*

#1 - Man, 87, onset date February 19, died March 4 - Shanghai Death+
#2 - Man, 27, onset date February 19, died March 10 - possible pork contact - Shanghai Death
#3 - Woman, 35, onset date March 15, hospitalized in critical condition - possible poultry contact - Chuzhou City, Anhui Province Death++
#4 - Woman, 45, onset date March 19, hospitalized March 27 - poultry culler - Jiangning district of Nanjing, Jiangsu province
#5 - Woman, 48, onset date March 19, hospitalized March 30 - Shuyang county of Suqian City, Jiangsu province
#6 - Man, 83, onset date March 20 - hospitalized March 29 - Wujiang district of Suzhou, Jiangsu province Death
#7 - Woman, 32, onset date March 21 - hospitalized March 28 - Binhu district of Wuxi City, Jiangsu province
#8 - Man, 38, onset date March 7, hospitalized March 18, died March 27 - reported to be a cook - Taicang, Zhejiang province Death
#9 - Man, 67, onset date March 25, hospitalized March 25, died April 2? Hangzhou, Zhejiang province
#10 - Man, 64, onset date hospitalized March 29, Zhejiang province Death
#11 - Man, 48, onset date March 28, engaged in chickens and ducks transportation work - Shanghai Death
#12 - Woman, 67, onset date March 22, hospitalized on March 25 in critical condition - Shanghai
#13 - Woman, 52, onset date March 27, died on April 3 - Shanghai Death
#14 - Child, 4, onset date March 31, mild case. Shanghai
#15 - Woman, 61, onset date March 20, from a retirement home - in critical condition Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu province
#16 - Man, 79, onset date March 21, from a retirement home. Qinhuai District in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, in critical condition
#17 - Man, 74, onset date March 28, hospitalized March 3, farmer, died April 11 Shanghai Death note
#18 - Man, 66, onset date March 29, hospitalized April 2, in treatment - from a retirement home, Shanghai
#19 - Man, 59, onset on March 25, hospitalized on March 30 Shanghai
#20 - Man, 67 - onset on March 29. Hospitalized on March 30 - in treatment - Shanghai
#21 - Man, 55, onset date March 28, hospitalized April 1 in stable condition - poultry worker - Anhui province
#22 - Age 64, onset date: April 1. Hospitalized on April 7. - Shanghai Death
#23 - Man, 85, onset date March 28, hospitalized April 8 in critical condition, retirement home, Nanjing Shimonosek Jiangsu province
#24 - Woman, 25, pregnant, onset date: March 30. - In critical condition. Zhenjiang City area, Jiangsu province
#25 - Woman, 51, onset date March 13, hospitalized, Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province
#26 - Man, 79, onset date March 29, hospitalized in critical condition, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province
#27 - Man, 62, onset date April 1, hospitalized April 5, retired Shanghai
#28 - Man, 77, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 7, retired Shanghai
#29 - Man, 65, hospitalized - a farmer Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province
#30 - Man, 70, onset date March 29, Wuxi Huishan, Jiangsu province
#31 - Man, 74, onset date April 2, Jiangyin City, Wuxi City, Jiangsu province
#32 - Woman, 76, onset date April 1, hospitalized April 5, Shanghai
#33 - Woman, 81, hospitalized April 4, farmer , Shanghai
#34 - Man, 31, chef, Yangzhou City, Jiangsu province
#35 - Man, 56, teacher, Suzhou Industrial Park, Jiangsu province
#36 - Man, 74, onset date March 31, hospitalized April 5, died April 11 retiree, Shanghai Death
#37 - Woman, 83, onset date April 2, hospitalized April 7, Shanghai
#38 - Man, 68, onset date April 4, hospitalized April 9, Shanghai
#39 - Man, 53, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 10, Shanghai
#40 - Man, 86, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 6, Shanghai
#41 - Man, 66, onset date April 8, hospitalized April 9, Hangzhou, Zhejiang province
#42 - Man, 74, onset date April 6, hospitalized April 11, Hangzhou, Zhejiang province
#43 - Woman, 54, onset date April 6, hospitalization April 12, Huzhou, Zhejiang province
#44 - Child, 7, hospitalized April 11 Shunyi District Beijing
#45 - Woman, 77, Nanjing former Baixia District, Jiangsu province
#46 - Man, 72, Changshu, Jiangsu province
#47 - Man, 56, onset date April 1, hospitalized April 4; his wife was confirmed positive on April 4, Shanghai
#48 - Man , 65, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 9. Zhejiang Province
#49 - Man , 38, onset date April 6, hospitalized April 11. Zhejiang Province

 

Laidback Al on FluTrackers also updates charts and maps on this outbreak on this thread.

 

Another graphical representation of cases, along with links to individual news reports, can be found on Healthmap’s H7N9 page.

 

 

And the ECDC continues to provide almost daily epidemiological updates (April 13th edition), including charts and maps, on this emerging virus.  Check the ECDC home page for new updates.

 

 

 

There are dozens of newshounds on flu forums like FluTrackers and The Flu Wiki, scores of people on twitter, and likely hundreds working behinds the scenes at public health organizations like Hong Kong’s CHP, the World Health Organization, the CDC, China’s CDC, and the ECDC who make it their job to keep the numbers straight, and the information flowing.

 

Admittedly, given the non-stop internet news cycle, and the leapfrogging of updates, it can still be difficult to keep abreast of the latest case counts. 

But without the efforts and generosity of the people mentioned above, and many more like them, it would probably be impossible.

 

At some point, if this outbreak grows substantially, it may become impractical to keep track of each individual case.

 

Nevertheless , the work being done right now is invaluable to those of us trying to make sense of the situation. And so a tip of my hat, and a world of thanks, to all those who are pitching in to keep the information rolling.

Quick H7N9 Notes: Crof’s Links & The Return Of Scott McPherson’s Blog

 

 

# 7056

 

Crof over at Crofsblog  has put together a terrific set of links for searching H7N9, along with the `core’ people to follow on emerging infectious diseases.  Follow the link to read:

 

Following H7N9 on your own

Amazing how one upstart little virus can hijack my blog. I'm about to try catching up on some of the many other stories I usually cover, but I realize some visitors are even more H7N9-obsessed than I (which is saying something). So if you're that kind of person, and really don't want to scroll through reports on all the other ills that flesh is heir to, here's a basic list of H7N9 resources.

 

Additionally, I’m pleased to announce that after a prolonged sabbatical, Scott McPherson is getting his feet wet again, and has posted a blog on the emergence of H7N9.

 

All eyes on China as novel influenza virus emerges

Posted on Tuesday, April 2, 2013 at 09:03AM by The world woke up Easter Sunday to some pretty unsettling news.  No, it was not about that twit in North Korea.  The news came out of China, and it hit hard enough for me to start blogging again.

 

China is the source of a novel H7N9 influenza virus.  And the virus is infecting, and killing, humans.

(Continue . . . )

Four Million Fears, BC

 

 

# 6303

 

 

One of the recurring themes in this blog is that disasters can strike anytime, and just about anywhere. For most people, that remains an abstract concept and hard to accept possibility.

 

Which is why it is useful to identify local hazards and point them out to the residents. Here in Florida, talk of hurricane preparedness begins every year several weeks before the season starts.

 

Fellow blogger Crawford Kilian (aka Crof) has a nice feature in The Tyee today, that looks at five disasters that – given enough time – are likely to impact the roughly four million residents of British Columbia.

 

 

Five Disasters to Befall BC

TYEE LIST #12: Earthquakes, pandemics, solar flares; a calamitous pall hangs over our province.

By Crawford Kilian, Today, TheTyee.ca

Natural disasters are exciting when they happen to other people, but we'd rather not think about undergoing them ourselves. As Woody Allen famously observed, "I'm not afraid of death; I just don't want to be there when it happens."

Still, we should make our wills even when we're in our prime, and we should bear in mind that some events are so extensive that we will indeed be there when they happen. So let us consider five certain disasters B.C. will face at some point in the future.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

As always, Crof provides an interesting and informative read.

 

As if to drive home the point, in the overnight hours the island of Vancouver has experienced no fewer than three  4.0+ magnitude quakes.  Not enough to do any real damage – but a not so gentle reminder that millions of us stand on shaky ground.

 

For another take on all of this - last year in Just A Matter Of Time - I took a long look at the devastating potential of a Vancouver earthquake – tsunami combination.

Referral: Crof On Cholera

 

 

# 6072

 

 

Crof, who has covered the Haitian cholera epidemic and subsequent local and international repercussions since the outbreak began, continues his exemplary coverage this weekend.

 

Fifteen months after it emerged, cholera continues to claim lives and exact a miserable toll on that impoverished Caribbean nation. 

 

You’ll find several new reports well worth reading this weekend on Crofsblog regarding a fresh outbreak in Pestel, including:

 

Haiti: Dr. John Carroll on cholera in Pestel, January 14, 2012 (updated)

 

Haiti: Cholera in Pestel so far

 

Haiti: More cholera news from Pestel

Referral: Crof On Timid Bureaucrats

 

 

 

# 5607

 

Crawford Kilian , who most of my readers know as the tireless editor of Crofsblog - in addition to being an established author and novelist, is also a contributing editor for The Tyee - which bills itself as `B.C.s home for News, Culture, and Solutions’.

 

You can find a list of his recent contributions to that magazine here.

 

 

Today Crof looks at the dangers of timid and dithering bureaucrats during times of crisis. In it he dissects some of the the managerial decisions surrounding Haiti’s cholera outbreak, the nuclear accident in Fukushima, and the current E. Coli outbreak in Europe.

 

Follow the link to read:

 

Timid Bureaucrats Can Be Lethal

 

Caution: Government embarrassment may be hazardous to your health. Epidemics prove it.

By Crawford Kilian, Today, TheTyee.ca

Of Note: Crofsblog’s 6th Blogiversary

 

 

 

# 5380

 

 

While we’ve been focused these past 24 hours almost solely on the disaster in Japan, I wanted to take a moment to publicly acknowledge Crawford Kilian’s 6th anniversary blogging at Crofsblog.

 

Six years is an incredible track record for blogging on the internet, and for many of us who come to Flublogia in the years that followed his debut, Crof has served as an excellent example of how the job should be done.

 

Crof has written a small piece about his six years before the masthead, which you can read at:

 

Six years of H5N1

 

Congratulations, my friend.

They’ve Got It Covered

 

# 5003

 

 

I realized long ago that when it comes to finding and posting `breaking’ medical or disease news, I’m no match for flublogia’s stalwarts like Crof, Chen Qi, or Arkanoid Legent  or the talented and dedicated newshounds on FluTrackers or the Flu Wiki.

 

So, recognizing my limitations, I try to take a couple of items each day and attempt to add value or context instead.

 

While I may not always succeed, it does keep me out of bars and bowling alleys.

 

But I digress . . .

 

The past couple of days has seen an explosion of news reports out of Haiti, and I would be remiss if I didn’t strongly urge my readers to visit Crofsblog several times a day to stay informed.  

 

He is doing a phenomenal job in keeping up with the latest, and his extended commentary this morning Haiti: Cholera as symptomatic relief for attention-deficit disorder is highly recommended.

 

 

You’ll find two areas on my sidebar of particular interest when it comes to keeping up with the latest news.   First, for a list of the latest offerings from Flublogia’s bloggers, you’ll find:

 

 

 

A little further down you’ll find another shorter list of blogs whose feeds don’t always work properly with my blogger real-time sidebar updates.

 

I would urge you to check out, and routinely visit, all of these sites.  

 

Note: Despite its name, `Flublogia’ covers more than just flu.  It embraces just about all of the emerging infectious diseases, along with public health and preparedness issues.

 

You’ll also find links to CIDRAP, and the various flu forums (I personally use FluTrackers and The Flu Wiki), along with dozens of other links of interest.  

 

As long as I’m making referrals this  morning, I would also point out that Maryn McKenna has an important piece on her Superbug blog  called  News break: A new type of MRSA spreads in Ohio

 

No one blog, or any one website, can cover the diverse and rapidly changing world of emerging infectious diseases effectively.  

 

But combined . . .  Flublogia manages to do darn good job.

The News Gathering Blogs

 

 

 

# 4885

 

 

As most of you are no doubt aware, I don’t try to cover every emerging disease story that crosses the wires.

 

Most days, I try to concentrate on the 2 or 3 stories that I find of greatest interest, do a little background research, and present them here with what I hope is useful context.

 

Which means that there are a lot of important stories that simply don’t end up on these pages.  Luckily, I’m not the only blogger covering the EID (Emerging Infectious Disease) beat.

 

I’ve often mentioned the hard work being done by the newshounds on the flu forums (I regularly visit FluTrackers and the Flu Wiki), and I honestly couldn’t do half of what I do without their considerable efforts.

 

They spend countless hours searching hundreds of newsfeeds every day, looking for any hint of an unusual outbreak of a disease in humans or animals.  And they do this not only in English, but in dozens of other languages as well.

 

For more details on how they go about this formidable task, I would direct you to Newshounds: They Cover The Pandemic Front.

 

But I rely also on the work being done by the news gathering bloggers, who do an amazing job every day sifting through news feeds looking for health and disease related stories.

 

 

There are a number of good disease-related news blogs, and you’ll find links to many of them in my sidebar, but I wanted to pay special homage this morning to the three I rely on most.

 

 

Crof of Crofsblog  (who is on a well deserved vacation this week) is the dean of flu bloggers, having been showing the rest of us how it ought to be done for more than 5 years now.  

 

By now, everybody should know Crof’s site. But if you aren’t a daily visitor to his site, you should be. 

 

A relative newcomer to the scene is Arkanoid Legent  out of Malaysia, who consistently provides one of the best daily roundups of infectious disease news on the net. 

 

Arkanoid has a genuine `nose for news’, and has become one of my favorite`go to’ sources for material each day.

 

Paul Klancnik in the Netherlands edits Chen Qi, which provides a tremendous amount of disease news in an easy to read newspaper format. 

 

You’ll find Chen Qi’s focus encompasses the aftermath of natural disasters, as well as disease outbreaks.

 

If you want a good sense of what is going on around the world each day regarding infectious diseases, these three sites will go a long ways towards achieving that goal.

 

I hit each of them several times each day, and am extremely thankful for their efforts.   

 

Highly recommended.

Referral: Crof On Pakistan

 

 

 

# 4845

 

Like many of you, I’ve been watching the unfolding disaster in Pakistan with a heavy heart.   Crof has devoted a good portion of his blog space to this tragedy these past few weeks, along with Chen Qi.

 

Last night Crof wrote extensively on why a massive flood in a faraway land should matter to us, and the ways this disaster could influence the future of that region for decades to come.  

 

Highly recommended.

 

Thinking about Pakistan

A Couple of Referrals On NDM-1

 

# 4806

 

 

Overnight Crof published his reflections on this past week’s big story about concerns over a growing type of antibiotic resistance known as NDM-1.  

 

As usual, Crof’s comments are insightful and well worth reading, so start your morning with:

 

The week of NDM-1

 

 

Yesterday Maryn McKenna gave a short (7 minute) radio interview on NPR’s morning news show, The Take Away. 

 

As usual, Maryn brings clarity to a confusing story. Listen to her interview at:

 

The 'Superbug': Imagining A World Without Effective Antibiotics

 

 

 

I’m working on a slightly different angle to the NDM-1 story this morning, which I hope to post later today or tomorrow.

Passing On A Message From Crof

 

 

 

A short note on behalf of Crof over at Crofsblog.

 

He emailed me this morning letting me know he’s having `issues’ with his Typepad account this morning, and finding it nearly impossible to update his blog.

 

He wanted me to let our readers know that he’ll be posting again as soon as the problem is corrected. 

A Handful Of Morning Referrals

 

 

# 4782

 

 

While I’m away for a few days of R&R my blogging efforts are going to be a bit light.  But I’ve a brand new netbook with me (Samsung N135) and a slightly slow wireless connection . . .  so I’m able, at least, to log on and view my major sources of information.

 

Since others are doing the heavy lifting this week, a few quick referrals seemed in order.

 

Overnight Crof at Crofsblog wrote about many of the intriguing questions that are raised by the WHO’s monitoring of H5N1 cases over the years in:

 

Thinking about H5N1

 

 

Ida at the Bird Flu Information Corner has some additional details on the recently announced bird flu fatality out of Indonesia:

 

Tangerang, Banten ::: Confirmed H5N1 case

 

Along with reports of more B2B outbreaks of H5N1 in that bird flu beleaguered nation.

 

Pesawaran, Lampung ::: H5N1 in chickens

Luwu Timur, South Sulawesi ::: Thousands of birds die of bird flu

 

A very happy referral to John Solomon’s In Case of Emergency Blog where he briefly relates his return to `active duty’ in CERT after the return of his Leukemia last year.

 

Now Ready CERT Member Comes Off ‘Disabled List’ To Help Ready New Yorkers At “National Night Out”

 

Great going John.  Congratulations.

Referral: Crof On Flublogia’s Future

 

# 4621

 

 

Last night Crof over at Crofsblog posted an essay entitled Flublogia after the Pandemic, where he takes a hard look at the failures of North American media outlets to cover important international stories and our societal ignorance over issues like the spread of Dengue,  Malaria, and the rise of other emerging infectious diseases around the world.

 

He’s right of course.  

 

If it doesn’t happen on our shores, or threatens to affect us directly, it isn’t worthy of the 6 o'clock news.

 

Flublogia, particularly the newshounds on flu forums like Flu Wiki and FluTrackers, have devoted a good deal of time and effort tracking these stories, of course.  But their audience is limited, and their members have a keen interest in emerging infectious diseases.

 

For the most part, North Americans remain oblivious to public health concerns outside of our hemisphere.

 

With flu news (at least temporarily) on the decline, Crof has been working to diversify his site to offer more coverage of other diseases like malaria and dengue.   He’s done a terrific job, particularly on his translations of south and central American news stories.

 

Even as Flublogia contracts – such as with the recent shuttering of Effect Measure  -  Crof envisions a new direction for flu bloggers.  

 

Read:

 

Flublogia after the pandemic

Referral: Alan Sipress Interview & Book Review

 

 

# 4542

 

 

For the second week in a row, friend and blogging colleague DemFromCt, and one of the founders of the Flu Wiki, has a book review and author interview of note.

 

Last week, it was his review of Maryn McKenna’s superb Superbug: The Fatal Menace of MRSA.

 

This week Dem brings us his review of Alan Sipress’s "The Fatal Strain: On the Trail of Avian Flu and the Coming Pandemic", along with the aforementioned interview.

Book review: The Fatal Strain: On the Trail of Avian Flu and the Coming Pandemic

by DemFromCT

 

 

For some more background on this book, you may wish to revisit my blog Alan Sipress: Playing chicken with a nightmare flu  and Crof’s review on The Tyee, What Bird Flu Can Teach Us about Swine Flu.

Referral: Crof’s Thoughts For The New Year

 

 

# 4239

 

Crawford Kilian, who pens Crofsblog, gives us some New Year’s thoughts on the world’s reaction to this pandemic, and their likely reaction to the next one.

 

Whenever Crof opines, it is well worth reading.  Today is no exception.  Read:

 

 

Thoughts for the new year

PBS MediaShift Looks At Flu Bloggers

 

 

# 4132

 

 

A number of weeks ago I was contacted by Simon Owens who writes for, among other venues,  PBS’s Mediashift website.   He told me he was doing a piece on Flu Bloggers, and asked if I’d consent to an interview.  

 

We spoke for about 20 minutes on the phone later that day.

Today that a bit of that interview, along with terrific interviews with Crof at Crofsblog and Vince Racaniello at the Virology Blog, appears on the Mediashift website.

 

Can H1N1 Flu Bloggers Help Battle Pandemic Misinformation?

 

by Simon Owens

Vincent Racaniello, a professor of microbiology at Columbia University Medical Center, remembers the last flu pandemic, which occurred in 1968. "It's a great contrast [with today], because back then you had to wait weeks for information, and the only way you got it was through newspapers and scientific journals, and now of course we have instant dissemination of everything," Racaniello... more »