NOAA: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

2014 Atlantic hurricane outlook.

Download here (Credit:NOAA)

 

# 8653

 

With the caveat that it just takes one major landfalling storm in a populated region to make for an epic hurricane season, today NOAA announced their prediction for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.  

 

First their statement, after which I’ll have a bit more.

 

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season

El Niño expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of
tropical cyclones

May 22, 2014

In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.

The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

(Continue . . .)

 

 

As a Floridian, I  welcome any early indication that we might get off easy with this year’s hurricane season.  But I also know that an average or even slow season can still produce one or more significant weather events.

1992 was such a year. Forecast to be a below average season, in fact, only 4 hurricanes and 3 tropical storms formed.  

 

A slow year by any measure, and one that would have been eminently forgettable were it not for the first storm of that year –catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Andrew – which devastated a swath of South Florida and the Bahamas before heading to Louisiana.

 

While there is genuine science behind these predictions – as we saw last year – sometimes they miss the mark badly.  Much of this year’s forecast will depend on the the timing and the strength of the El Nino building in the Pacific.

 

Last year was forecast to be an above average Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA predicting 13 to 20 named storms and 7 to 11 hurricanes . . . yet in the end, only two hurricanes formed.

 

All of which is a good reason to prepare this year (and every year) as if a storm is all but guaranteed.  

 

By the time you know a storm is targeting your area, it can be difficult to take all the steps necessary to safeguard lives and property. Which is why all next week we’ll be looking at Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Because, as the residents who lived in South Florida back in 1992 can attest . . . . one storm is more than enough to seriously impact your life.

NOAA: `Near Normal’ Hurricane Season Predicted

 

 

# 6344

 

In late May, just before the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season, we get a number extended outlooks that attempt to predict the amount of tropical activity we might expect to see over the next six months. 

 

Earlier this year Professor William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado University’s Department of Atmospheric Science released their updated 2012 Extended-Range Hurricane Forecast for the Atlantic Tropical basin, where they called for a below-average hurricane season (see It Only Takes One).

 

Gray and Klotzbach will provide an updated outlook again in early June.

 

 

Today, NOAA has released their extended outlook, and after several very active years, they are calling for a 70% chance of seeing a `normal’ hurricane season.  

 

Here are some excerpts from today’s story.

 

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew underscores necessity to prepare every year

May 24, 2012

Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA announced today from Miami at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and home to the Hurricane Research Division.

 

For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

 

“NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.

 

Favoring storm development in 2012: the continuation of the overall conditions associated with the Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995, in addition to near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, known as the Main Development Region. Two factors now in place that can limit storm development, if they persist, are: strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic.

 

“Another potentially competing climate factor would be El Niño if it develops by late summer to early fall. In that case, conditions could be less conducive for hurricane formation and intensification during the peak months (August-October) of the season, possibly shifting the activity toward the lower end of the predicted range,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Next week will kick off Hurricane Preparedness Week, and again this year I’ll have a number of blogs on the subject.

 

 

 

And just as a reminder:

 

The NHC has two Twitter accounts, one for the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea):

U.S. National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) - @NHC_Atlantic

 

and one for the Eastern North Pacific basin:
U.S. National Hurricane Center (Eastern Pacific) - @NHC_Pacific

 

In addition to the Twitter notifications, NHC also provides product notifications by email. Please visit hurricanes.gov/signup.shtml to sign up for this service.

And if you aren’t already following

• FEMA
• CraigAtFEMA
• Ready.gov
• Red Cross

on twitter, you might want to add them to your list.

NOAA Issues Updated 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

 

 

 

# 5737

 

Earlier today I reported on Colorado State University’s updated 2011 Hurricane forecast (see Dr. Gray’s Tropical Update & Waiting For Emily To Curve) which calls for an above average hurricane season featuring 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6).

 

This afternoon NOAA has released their updated analysis of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season as well, increasing very slightly their earlier predictions (see see NOAA Issues 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook) released in May.

 

They too are calling for an above average hurricane season.

 

The following are excerpts from an announcement released today by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

 

NOAA PRESS RELEASE

NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

Issued: 4 August 2011

Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions
Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is produced in collaboration with scientists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

Interpretation of NOAA's Atlantic hurricane season outlook
This outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity during the upcoming hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular region.

<SNIP>

2011 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, and a 15% chance of a near-normal season. There is no expectation for a below-normal season. Therefore, 2011 is expected to become the twelfth above-normal season since 1995. This updated outlook reflects a higher likelihood of an above-normal season compared to the pre-season outlook issued in May, which indicated a 65% chance of an above-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

<SNIP>

The 2011 season is expected to be comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

• 14-19 Named Storms,
• 7-10 Hurricanes
• 3-5 Major Hurricanes
• An ACE range of 135%-215% of the 1981-2010 median.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

 

The official NHC seasonal averages are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

(Continue . . . )

The outlook from NOAA generally matches the forecast released yesterday by Dr. Gray’s team at Colorado State University.

If they prove correct, it would seem that we’ve got a busy 3 or 4 months ahead.

 

Dr. Gray’s Tropical Update & Waiting For Emily To Curve

 

 

# 5733

 

 

 

The forecast tracks of weak or poorly organized tropical systems are often harder to predict than those of more robust storms, and the currently disheveled T.S. Emily off the southern coast of Hispaniola is no exception.

 

Which helps to explain the spread in this morning’s `spaghetti’ model runs in the graphic above.  Most, but not all, of the models show the storm curving away from the state of Florida.

 

While there are signs it may be starting to happen, for nearly 36 hours computer models have been predicting a curve to the north, and yet Emily has stubbornly stayed on a westerly path.

 

 

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center  now has Emily beginning to move on a more WNW course, which ought to take it across the western tip of Haiti later today.

 

As discussed previously, the accompanying flooding rains are likely to exacerbate the already difficult conditions on the island of Hispaniola in the wake of last year’s massive earthquake and the ongoing Cholera epidemic.

 

 

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

 

 

From the 5am  Discussion:

 

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

 

IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 17.3N  71.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  04/1800Z 17.9N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  05/0600Z 20.0N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  05/1800Z 22.5N  76.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  06/0600Z 24.7N  77.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  07/0600Z 28.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  08/0600Z 32.5N  74.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 36.0N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 

For now, the Bahamas would appear to be at greatest risk of a visit from Emily, but residents in Florida need to keep tabs on this storm as there is still a degree uncertainty regarding its future movement.

 

If you are on Twitter, you should can follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov for the latest Emergency information.

 

Meanwhile, Dr. William Gray and Philip J. Klotchbach of Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science have released their latest tropical outlook for the remainder of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 

This outlook is essentially unchanged from their earlier predictions.

 

 

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011

(as of 3 August 2011)

Information obtained through July 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season.  We estimate that 2011 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0).

 
The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be well above its long-period average.  We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2011 to be approximately 175 percent of the long term average season.  We have maintained our seasonal forecast from early April and early June.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

As the graph below shows, we are just now getting into the heart of the tropical season, and the threat of hurricanes and tropical storms run through the month of November.

 

 

Good enough reasons to take the tropical weather threat seriously and make whatever preparations you can before a storm threatens you, your family, or your business.

 

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

 

And lastly, you may wish to revisit some of my preparedness essays, including:

 

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

NOAA Issues 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

 

 

# 5563

 

 

With National Hurricane Preparedness Week this Sunday (May 22nd), it’s time for NOAA’s yearly Hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Tropical season.

 

Last year (see NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook) NOAA called for an above average tropical season, and that is exactly what we had, although the coastline of the United States was largely spared.

 

2010 Hurricane/Storm Tracks

 

 

Tropical outlooks can give us an idea of the number of storms that are likely to form . . . but tell us almost nothing about where they are likely to go.

 

But whether we have an active outlook, or a slow one, it only takes one landfalling hurricane in your vicinity to make it a high impact year for you and your family.

 

Now is the time to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season.

 

This year we’ve already seen a preliminary outlook from Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.

This year, he and his team are calling for an above average Atlantic tropical season with an above-average probability  of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

 

Gray’s team will issue an updated outlook in early June, and in August (when the season should grain momentum)  begin issuing  Two-Week Forecasts  for hurricane activity until October.

 

Today, NOAA has issued their outlook for 2011, and they are calling for :

• 12 to 18 named storms 
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)

 

This from NOAA News.

 

NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season

May 19, 2011

Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16) were part of the onslaught of Atlantic storms last hurricane season (2010).

Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.

 

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

 

“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

 

“However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”

 

Climate factors considered for this outlook are:

• The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
• La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.

(Continue . . .)

 

Whether you live in `hurricane country’ or not, I hope you’ll use next week’s Hurricane Preparedness campaign to prepare your home and business for disasters of all types.

CSU Forecast Team Ups The Ante

 

 

 

# 4617

 

 

There are environmental and climatological factors that we know influence hurricane development – sometimes dampening formation and sometimes exacerbating it.

 

Right now, the ingredients for an active hurricane season appear to be either in place, or on the horizon.   While conditions could change, right now:

 

Sea surface temperatures are at historic levels, the El Nino in the Pacific - which curtailed hurricane formation last year - is on its way out, and a La Nina – which is conducive for Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis appears likely to set in over the next couple of months.

 

Every year (since the mid-1980s) the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, under the direction of Dr. William Gray, has issued hurricane season outlooks.  These outlooks begin in the winter, and are updated every couple of months.

Today, CSU’s team has increased its predictions over the `above-average’ season they were calling for in April.  Last week NOAA their own forecast, also calling for a very active season (see NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook).

 

 

Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team Increases Prediction, Calls for Very Active 2010 Hurricane Season

FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team today increased its predictions and is now calling for a very active 2010 season in the Atlantic basin with 18 named storms predicted. The forecast was based on much warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and cooling tropical Pacific conditions that will likely transition into a weak La Nina by mid-season.

 

Of the 18 storms, the team now anticipates 10 hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Five are expected to develop into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

 

The scientists increased their forecast from April's prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Long-term (1950-2000) averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.

 

“We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Nino to current neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said William Gray, who is in his 27th year of forecasting at Colorado State. “We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

 

The team also updated its U.S. landfall probabilities, which are calculated based on historical landfall statistics and then adjusted by the latest seasonal forecast.

 

"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 76 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach. “We expect that the current trend from El Nino to neutral conditions will persist and that weak La Nina conditions will develop by the most active portion of this year’s hurricane season (August-October).

(Continue . . .)

 

 

The team will issue a final seasonal forecast update on Wednesday, August 4.

CSU RESEARCH TEAM
EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
-Released June 2, 2010-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1950-2000 Climatology Averages Forecast for 2010
in parentheses)
Named Storms (9.6)* 18
Named Storm Days (49.1) 90
Hurricanes (5.9) 10
Hurricane Days (24.5) 40
Intense Hurricanes (2.3) 5
Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) 13
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (96) 185
Net Tropical Cyclone
Activity (100%) 195
* Numbers in ( ) represent average year totals based on 1950-2000 data.

NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

 

 

# 4601

 

 

Today NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) issued their updated `forecast’ (an outlook, really) for this year’s Atlantic Hurricane season.

 

Yesterday, if you will recall, two hurricane researchers from the University of Colorado (Dr. William Grey & Dr. Phil Klozbach) stated they expected `a hell of a year’. 

 

Apparently NOAA experts agree.  They are anticipating 14 to 23 Named Storms, 8 to 14 Hurricanes of which 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes

 

Along with this seasonal outlook , NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco  discussed with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate the critical need for storm preparedness.

 

 

 

NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

May 27, 2010

Hurricane Ike, 2008.

 

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

• Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
• High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Today is day five of  National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and the focus today is on Forecasting.

 

 

WATCH vs. WARNING - KNOW THE DIFFERENCE

• TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
• TROPICAL STORM WARNING: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.
• HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
• HURRICANE WARNING: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.