Some Preseason Doings Off The Florida Coast

 

# 10,017

 

As a Floridian with more than enough hurricane notches in my belt for a lifetime, I always approach the start of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season (June 1st) with a small amount of trepidation. 

 

While I’ve swallowed the anchor (aka `moved landside’), nothing beats riding through a couple of rowdy tropical storms aboard a small sailboat to instill a lifelong respect for these powerful storms.

 

 

Rarely, we will  see the development of one of these tropical systems outside the traditional June1st-Nov 31st hurricane season.  May leads the pack with 20 such storms (between 1851-2013), followed by December with 17.  But February, March, and April each have one on record as well.   

 

Most, thankfully, never reach hurricane strength. Although as anyone who went through the March superstorm of 1993 will attest, having tropical characteristics, a name, and hurricane status are sometimes overrated. 

This unnamed system claimed more than 300 lives and inflicted more than $6 billion dollars in damage as it swept out of the Gulf and up the Atlantic Seaboard.

 

All of which makes it unusual, but not unheard of, that NOAA’s National Hurricane Center finds itself monitoring an area of suspicion – with potential to develop – off the southern coast of Florida.   Interests along the Florida and Southeastern United States Coast are urged to monitor its progress over the next few days.

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the northwestern Bahamas.  The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled for this afternoon has been cancelled.  However, conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the next day or so while the system moves slowly northward.  A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8 PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

We’ll spend a fair amount of time looking at hurricane preparedness during National Hurricane Preparedness Week at the end of May.  Disasters, however, don’t read calendars and so it is always prudent to prepare sooner rather than later.

Are You Ready For Tornado Season 2015?

# 9782

 

With another winter storm dumping snow and ice across the southland this week it may seem a bit early to be thinking about tornado season, but the spring thaw is only a few weeks away and with it will come the storms of spring.

 

We’ve actually been pretty lucky the past three years, as tornado activity has run  below average - but nothing guarantees that streak will continue.

 

During a three day period (Apr 25th-28th) of 2011 a storm system of epic proportions spawned 351 confirmed tornadoes across five southern states, killing 338 persons in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee.  This was the the third deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. History. More than a dozen of these twisters reached intensities of 4 or 5 on the Enhanced Fujita [EF] scale, which can produce near total devastation.

Before and after imagery depicting tornado damage in the vicinity of the intersection of 15th St. E. and McFarland Blvd. E. in southeast Tuscaloosa, AL. The before imagery is courtesy of Google, the after imagery was acquired from an altitude of 5,000 feet above ground level by the NOAA King Air April 29, 2011.

 

All but a small part of the United States is vulnerable to these storms, but the strongest generally occur in an area we call Tornado Alley (below Left), which runs from middle Texas north though Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.

 

This is the area where you will generally find the largest and most powerful tornadoes; the F5 wedge type. 

TORNADO ALLEY                       DIXIE ALLEY

Fortunately, much of the mid-west is sparsely populated, and so the number of tornado deaths that occur here are actually less than in other areas of the country.   

 

DIXIE ALLEY (above right) sees more frequent, albeit usually less severe tornadoes.  Due to a higher population density, more deaths occur in Dixie Alley than in Tornado Alley most years.

 

Which is why every home and office should have a NOAA weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

 

No one can say with any confidence how many destructive storms 2015 will bring - but when it comes to tornados - you only have to be hit by one to ruin your whole day.

NOAA’s Are You Weather-Ready? Severe Weather Preparedness has a lot of good information, and three tornado specific videos.

Get Weather-Ready: Before a Tornado

Get Weather-Ready: During a Tornado

GGet Weather-Ready: After a Tornado

 

In 2012 the CDC’s MMWR issued an analysis of the 2011 massive tornado outbreak, that stressed the importance of safe rooms.  Due to the length of the report, I’ve only reproduced a few excerpts. 

Follow the link to read:

Tornado-Related Fatalities — Five States, Southeastern United States, April 25–28, 2011

Weekly

July 20, 2012 / 61(28);529-533

(Media Synopsis)

Individuals who work or live in a tornado-prone area should develop a tornado safety plan prior to severe weather.

During April 25–28, 2011, the third deadliest tornado disaster occurred in the southeastern U.S. despite modern advances in tornado forecasting, advanced warning times, and media coverage.  CDC reviewed data from the American Red Cross, death certificates and the National Weather Service to describe the fatalities by demographic characteristics, shelter used, cause of death, and tornado severity in the affected states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee. Of the 338 deaths, approximately one-third were older adults, almost half occurred in single-family homes, and a quarter happened in mobile homes.  One-half of the 27 tornadoes were rated powerful (EF-4 or EF-5) and were responsible for almost 90 percent of the deaths. The use of safe rooms is crucial to preventing tornado-related deaths.

(Continue . . . .)

 

FEMA has a good deal of advice on exactly how to construct a safe room – either above or below ground.

Residential Safe Rooms

 

The information below will help you understand how having a safe room in your home can protect your family and save the lives of those you care about.

Find answers to your Questions about Building a Safe Room, including:

• What is the cost of installing a safe room?
• Can I install a safe room in an existing home?
• Can I build the safe room myself?
• Where is the best location for the safe room?
• Where can I find plans for safe room construction?

And more....

Building a Safe Room in Your House

For more details about how you can build a safe room in your home, go to the FEMA P- 320, Taking Shelter from the Storm: Building a Safe Room for Your Home or Small Business page before downloading it from the FEMA Library.   

 

Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any emergency. Even with a safe room, family members could become separated (they may be sent to different hospitals or shelters) in the post-disaster chaos.

 

Some may be injured and unable to provide information about their families.

 

So it is important to set up a plan, including meeting places and out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards -  before you need it. To that end READY.GOV has some advice, and tools, to help you do just that.

Plan to Protect Yourself & Your Family

Family Emergency Plan

(PDF - 3Mb)

Prepare yourself and your family for a disaster by making an emergency plan.

Download the Family Emergency Plan (FEP) (PDF - 750Kb), print the pages and fill them in offline.

Your emergency planning should also address the care of pets, aiding family members with access and functional needs and safely shutting off utilities.

You may also want to inquire about emergency plans at work, daycare and school. If no plans exist, consider volunteering to help create one. Read more about school and workplace plans.

Once you’ve collected this important information, gather your family members and discuss the information to put in the plan. Practice your plan at least twice a year and update it according to any issues that arise.

Together with adequate emergency supplies, a solid first aid kit, and an emergency battery operated NWS Weather Radio, these steps will go a long ways to protecting you, and your family, from a wide variety of potential disasters.

Basic kit : NWS radio, First Aid Kit, Lanterns, Water & Food & cash

This weekend, when we `spring ahead’ into Daylight Savings Time, is the perfect time to take a good hard look at your emergency plans, and supplies, and make any adjustments necessary.

 

For more on all of this, a partial list of some of my preparedness blogs include:

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

The Gift Of Preparedness – 2014 Edition

Hurricane Arthur, July Climatology & NHC’s New 5-Day Graphical Forecast

 

# 8803

 

Arthur, a category one hurricane, is expected to pass very close to the outer banks of North Carolina this evening on its trek north.  While most of the worst of the weather will likely remain offshore, areas along the coastline are likely to take a pounding. 

 

Residents in the affected areas should be completing their hurricane preparations now (see Hurricane Preparedness Week: Make A Plan).

 

Storms that form in June and early July generally form in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, or just off the coast of the United States – as has Arthur. 

June Tropical Climatology

Credit NOAA

As the summer progresses the spawning grounds for Hurricanes moves further east into the warming Atlantic ocean.  But it usually isn’t until  August and September that the Cape Verde basin begins to produce what often turn into the largest and most persistent storms.

July & August Tropical Climatology

 

And the number of storms increases as we get later in the summer, with the peak of activity usually in the first half of September.  Hurricane season lasts through November 30th, however, and so late season storms are always possible.

 

You can find much more on Hurricane Climatology at NOAA’s  Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.

When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real pros, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

• Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours.
• Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.

 

This year the NHC has also introduced a new five-day graphical forecast, showing the areas of the tropics where tropical development is possible (or expected) over the next 120 hours.   Here is how NOAA describes this new feature:

 

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Introduced

Beginning at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st , NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will introduce an experimental five-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO) to accompany its text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).

The new five-day GTWO, available for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins, will indicate the formation potential of  current and future disturbances during the next five days.

Shaded areas will represent the potential tropical cyclone  formation areas,  color-coded by development likelihood, with yellow representing a low (<30%) chance, orange denoting a medium (30%  to 50%) chance, and red  corresponding to a high (>50%) chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The location of each current disturbance will be denoted by an “X”. A mouse-over feature will allow users to see the accompanying Outlook text for each system. Clicking on an area will display a graphic showing only that disturbance, which should improve clarity when the forecast genesis areas overlap. Because the new five-day GTWO will tend to be busier than the current 48-hour GTWO, the five-day graphic will not display the locations of existing tropical cyclones.

Here is an example of the new five-day GTWO:

 

 

For now, with the exception of Arthur, the Atlantic Basin and Caribbean are quiet, with no tropical development expected.

Making this 4th of July weekend a good time to go over your hurricane (and other disaster) preparedness plans, making sure you, your family, and your business are prepared to deal with whatever unexpected situation that life, and nature, can throw at you.

 

In addition to the preparedness information you can find on the FEMA and READY.GOV websites, a few of my earlier preparedness blogs include:

 

 When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

The Gift Of Preparedness: 2013

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

Lightning Safety Awareness Week June 22nd - 28th

Credit NOAA 

 

 

# 8786

 

One of the indelible lessons I learned as a young paramedic – working as I did in the lightning capital of North America (Tampa Bay) – was the absolute folly of standing on wet grass, while wearing steel spiked shoes (this was in 1973 or 1974), and then hoisting a metal rod above one’s head on a hot, humid, and overcast summer’s day.

Poor Charlie (or whatever his name was), undoubtedly never saw it coming.  

 

But he probably should have, as every year lightning claims several dozen lives in the United States, and injures hundreds more, often in open spaces like golf courses and beaches. 

 

While Florida leads the nation in Lightning deaths each year, there really isn’t anywhere you can go in North American that is immune.

Credit Vaisala Inc.

 

Fatalists who think that if lightning gets them, they’ll never know it, should understand that only about 10% of those struck by lightning each year die. Among those that survive, many experience serious, and sometimes life long injury or disability.

 

This week NOAA is promoting  Lightning Safety Awareness Week: June 22-28, 2014. Below you’ll find links to some of their information.

 

Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena--lightning. Though lightning strikes peak in summer, people are struck year round. In the United States, an average of 51 people are killed each year by lightning, and hundreds more are severely injured.

Safety: Learn what you need to do to stay safe when thunderstorms threaten.

Victims: Learn what happens to people who are struck by lightning and look at fatality statistics for the U.S.

Science: Learn how thunderstorms develop and what happens during a lightning discharge.

Myths and Facts: Get answers to many of the questions you have always wondered about

Teachers: find curriculum guides, presentations games, activities, and more. Kids: Download games, videos, coloring pages and other fun stuff.

More Resources: Download toolkits, posters, pamphlets, and other information to help communities, organizations, and families stay safe from the dangers of lightning

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Follow us on Facebook

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7

 

# 8689

 

 
Although I’m having some difficulties (DNS errors) connecting to the NHC or  Hurricanes.gov websites this morning, today is the final day of Hurricane preparedness week, where the topics we’ve discussed over the past 7 days are coalesced into one imperative:

 

Take Action.  Now, before a storm threatens.   And decisively, once a threat becomes apparent.

 

 

 

As Stacey Stewart, senior hurricane specialist at the NHC, states in the video above – you need to be prepared for at least a week without essential services – which means having enough water, food, and essential medications on hand, along with emergency lighting, a battery operated radio, and a good first aid kit.

 

For a more detailed overview on how to prepare for a hurricane, you may wish to revisit Hurricane Preparedness Week: Make A Plan.

 

To encourage residents prepare for hurricane season, this year Florida has instituted a tax holiday on certain certain preparedness supplies for the first week of June.

 

Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday May 31 through June 8, 2014
During the holiday, qualifying items related to hurricane preparedness are exempt from sales tax. The holiday begins at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, May 31, 2014, and ends at 11:59 p.m. on Sunday, June 8, 2014. For more information, see the following:

• A list of qualifying items.

 

If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

 

When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real pros, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

• Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours.
• Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.

NOAA’s NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami also has a Facebook page, where you can keep up with the latest tropical developments.

 

The second official information source you should have bookmarked is your local Office of Emergency Management.  Here you’ll be able to access local warnings, flood maps and evacuation information. To find your local one, you can Google or Yahoo search with your county/parish name and the words `Emergency Management’.  

 

And lastly, if you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov. 

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Forecasting Then & Now

 

 

# 8679

 

For those born after 1960, it is probably hard to understand just how vulnerable we used to be to the unannounced arrival of hurricanes and tropical storms.  Before then, we had no `eyes in the skies’ –  weather satellites – to tell us if something was brewing far offshore, and tracking storms was pretty much hit and miss, based on ship’s reports.  

 

All that uncertainty began to change, when on April 1st 1960 Tiros I - the world's first weather satellite - was launched into Earth orbit from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

 

For the first time, we had a `god's eye view' of earth, and while the pictures were grainy, and the resolution laughable by today's standards, we could finally watch how and where hurricanes formed. It was a wondrous day for everyone, except possibly for members of the Flat Earth Society.

The first weather satellite photo from space.

 

It meant we were no longer solely dependent on ship's reports and Hurricane Hunter aircraft to know if disaster lay just beyond the horizon. It meant more than 12 hours warning to prepare for a storm.  And it was a major step in unraveling the mysteries of cyclone genesis.

 

It would take time of course. The first satellite only produced about 1 picture an hour, and then, only during daylight hours. Infrared capability was added in later `birds’.  For those with in interest in how `old school’ forecasting was accomplished, last year I wrote about a legend: Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster.

 

Three different views from space, taken May 26th, 2011 1345Z – NOAA

Today, our reconnaissance satellites can take 40 pictures an hour, and see right through the clouds and measure rainfall, winds and even sea water temperatures.Add in the power of supercomputers,ocean buoys, hurricane probes, and five decades of new knowledge, and the art of hurricane forecasting has improved tremendously over the past 50 years.

 

 

This year, forecasts will include even more information – particularly for coastal residents – as we discussed on Sunday. This year, the NHC will be issuing enhanced color-coded experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps showing the locations that could be affected by storm surge based on their (SLOSH) computer models.

 

Of course, all of the advances in forecasting technology are for naught if people don’t use this information to prepare for – and in some cases, get out of the way of – these storms.

 

Which is why tomorrow and Saturday Hurricane Preparedness Week will focus on what you need to do to get ready for the storm.

 

In the meantime, if you haven’t already, now would be a good time to download the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide and to think about what hazards your home, and or business, might face if one of these storms pays a visit this summer or fall.

NOAA: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

2014 Atlantic hurricane outlook.

Download here (Credit:NOAA)

 

# 8653

 

With the caveat that it just takes one major landfalling storm in a populated region to make for an epic hurricane season, today NOAA announced their prediction for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.  

 

First their statement, after which I’ll have a bit more.

 

NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season

El Niño expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of
tropical cyclones

May 22, 2014

In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.

The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

(Continue . . .)

 

 

As a Floridian, I  welcome any early indication that we might get off easy with this year’s hurricane season.  But I also know that an average or even slow season can still produce one or more significant weather events.

1992 was such a year. Forecast to be a below average season, in fact, only 4 hurricanes and 3 tropical storms formed.  

 

A slow year by any measure, and one that would have been eminently forgettable were it not for the first storm of that year –catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Andrew – which devastated a swath of South Florida and the Bahamas before heading to Louisiana.

 

While there is genuine science behind these predictions – as we saw last year – sometimes they miss the mark badly.  Much of this year’s forecast will depend on the the timing and the strength of the El Nino building in the Pacific.

 

Last year was forecast to be an above average Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA predicting 13 to 20 named storms and 7 to 11 hurricanes . . . yet in the end, only two hurricanes formed.

 

All of which is a good reason to prepare this year (and every year) as if a storm is all but guaranteed.  

 

By the time you know a storm is targeting your area, it can be difficult to take all the steps necessary to safeguard lives and property. Which is why all next week we’ll be looking at Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Because, as the residents who lived in South Florida back in 1992 can attest . . . . one storm is more than enough to seriously impact your life.

NOAA: Major Severe Weather Outbreak Predicted

 

# 7983

 

We’ve seen fewer than normal outbreaks of severe weather across the nation over the past 18 months, but when they have occurred (see Picking Up The Pieces) some have produced significant damage and loss of life.

 

Overnight NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a forecast for a Major Severe Weather Outbreak today and/or tonight, with the greatest risks spread across parts of Illinois and Indiana.

 

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 170849
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-171800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through early tonight.

The areas most likely to experience this activity include:

       Illinois
       Indiana
       Northern and Western Kentucky
       Lower Michigan
       Ohio
       Southeast Wisconsin

Surrounding this greatest risk region, severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee northeastward across much of the
Appalachians to the lower Great Lakes.

A potent jet stream disturbance with wind speeds in excess of 120 knots will sweep east across the central Plains today and across the Ohio Valley and northern half of the Appalachians tonight. As this
occurs, a surface low now over the mid-Mississippi Valley will rapidly intensify and accelerate northeastward, reaching northern Michigan early tonight and western Quebec Monday morning.

East of the low, increasingly warm and humid air at the surface will spread north across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, contributing to very unstable conditions over a large part of the east central United States. Coupled with daytime heating and ascent provided the jet stream impulse, the environment will become very favorable for severe thunderstorms --- especially along and ahead of fast-moving cold front trailing southward from the low into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Given the degree of thermodynamic instability, and the strength and character of the winds through the depth of the atmosphere, many of the storms will become supercells. Some of these will be capable of
producing strong tornadoes --- in addition to large hail and swaths of damaging surface winds. 

The storms are expected to consolidate into one or two extensive lines later today into tonight --- extending the threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes eastward into the Appalachians by early Monday.

State and local emergency managers are monitoring this potentially very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio, television, and NOAA Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings, and statements later today.

..Corfidi.. 11/17/2013

 

For everyone – but particularly for those who live in the forecast area - now would be a good time to  to double check your NOAA weather radio, flashlights, and first aid kit.  You should also have food and water stored to last a minimum of 3 days. If you can manage it, having a week or more is even better.

 

You should also review your family’s emergency communication plan - and if you haven’t already done so - decide where you would go in your home or business if severe weather threatens.

 

Every home and office should have a NOAA  weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

 

In order to receive these broadcasts, you need a special receiver.  Many of these radios have a built in `Tone Alert', and will begin playing once they receive a special alert signal from the broadcaster. To keep track of severe storm forecasts, you can visit NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center online. There you’ll find interactive maps showing current and anticipated severe weather threats all across the nation.

 

We often get a head’s up, and time to prepare for severe storms.  But the same cannot be said for earthquakes, tsunamis, terrorist and/or cyber attacks, power outages, brush or forest fires, and chemical spills or industrial accidents. 

 

The best (and sometimes only) time to prepare for  these threats is before they occur.

 

For more information on how to prepare for emergencies, large and small, the following sites should be of assistance.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

NOAA: Above Average Atlantic Hurricane Season Still Expected

The peak of the hurricane season is still ahead - Photo Credit NOAA

# 7553

 

Although the first two months of the 2013 Altantic Tropical season have been fairly uneventful (4 tropical storms, no hurricanes), there are still four months left to go, and NOAA continues to see conditions ripe for an above-average tropical season.

 

Earlier this month, we saw similar predictions from Colorado State University’s Dr. William Gray: August Hurricane Forecast Update.

 

Here is the latest prediction from NOAA.

 

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

August 8, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

 

The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

 

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

• 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
  • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
  • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

(Continue . . . )

 

If you haven’t already downloaded the Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so. It is a short (12-page), easy to follow guide that will walk you through the basics of understanding (and surviving) hurricanes and tropical storms.

 

For more on hurricane preparedness you may wish to revisit:

 

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 & 7

Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

Hurricane Preparedness Week & The Tale Of The Tape

Storm Surge Monday

National Hurricane Preparedness Week – Day 1

An Early Tropical Reminder

 NHC 5am position

 

# 7367

 

The rains here have been torrential for several hours, and a large limb has come down next to my house, but so far the worst of Tropical Storm Andrea remains offshore to my west, headed for a landfall later today.

 

This time yesterday morning, Andrea was little more than a glob of disorganized clouds and rain off the Yucatan peninsula, given a mere 30% chance of development.

 

By a little after 5pm last night, Andrea had a name, and this morning she is a 60MPH storm.

 

 

While Andrea will probably be mostly a rain producer, there is always the possibility of some wind damage, coastal storm tides, and even a tornado or two spinning off.  So while not a major storm, Andrea should still be taken seriously.

 

NOAA has forecast an above average Atlantic Tropical Season, and so Andrea serves as fair warning to all who live within reach of these storms (and that can be hundreds of miles inland) to be prepared this summer.

 

Last week was Hurricane Preparedness Week, and you may wish to revisit some of my blogs on getting ready for this year’s tropical season.

 

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 & 7

Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

Hurricane Preparedness Week & The Tale Of The Tape

Storm Surge Monday

National Hurricane Preparedness Week – Day 1

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 & 7

 

 

# 7347

 

 

Today is day 7 of Hurricane Preparedness Week, but as the folks living in Oklahoma City can tell you after last night’s round by tornadoes, you don’t have to live within reach of one of these tropical storm systems to find yourselves dealing with severe, life-threatening weather conditions.

 

So while we talk about Hurricane Preparedness this week, everyone should take this yearly reminder to beef up their individual, family, and business emergency plans.

 

 

Yesterday and today, Hurricane Preparedness Week has focused on Getting Ready, and Taking Action.  So first, a pair of short videos from NOAA on both of these tasks.

 

 

 

 

 

Ready.gov has an extensive Hurricane preparedness website, with information on what to do before, during, and after the storm.

 

 

Far too many people mistakenly believe they’ve seen the worst that a hurricane can deliver because they’ve been on the periphery of one of the large storms we’ve seen over the past 20 years. 

 

The truth is, we’ve not had a Category 5 storm strike the U.S. mainland since 1992, when Andrew took out a large portion of Homestead, Florida.

 

Before that you have to go back to 1969, and Hurricane Camille in Mississippi. 

 

 

The modern benchmark for hurricane disasters is Hurricane Katrina, that devastated New Orleans in 2005.  But that storm was barely a Category 3 storm when it hit land. 

 

As horrific as it was, it could have been worse. . .

 

The lessons of Katrina, Wilma, Ike, Irene and Sandy are that it doesn’t take a category 5 storm to cause major devastation, disruptions, and deaths.  Even tropical storms – such as Allison in 2001 – can prove deadly (55 fatalities, $9 billion in damage).

 

While the storm may last 12 to 24 hours, the aftermath – where power may be out, businesses may be closed, and services may curtailed -  can drag on for weeks.

 

Basic Preps: Emergency Weather Radio, First Aid Kit, Battery Lantern, Water storage

Which makes the `standard advice’ of having at least 3 days worth of supplies less than ideal.  Today, most emergency officials recommend you prepare for `at least a week’ (see When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough).

 

While having food, water, and prescription medicines to last a week or more is vital, sometimes your best option is to get get out of harm’s way.

 

The following photo taken in Crystal Beach after Hurricane Ike in 2008 proves that staying home in the face of a flood, a hurricane, or other natural disaster can have deadly consequences.

If you live in an evacuation zone, you should obviously be prepared to leave immediately when ordered, but everyone should have a bug-out bag they can grab in the event they must quickly abandon their home (see  When Evacuation Is The Better Part Of Valor).

 

My Bug-out-bag, Canteen, & Toiletry kit

 

Another important aspect of preparedness for millions of families is anticipating the disaster needs of the non-human members of the family (see Prepping For Pets).

 

We don’t know where, or even if, a hurricane will make landfall this year. But last month we saw that NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

 

If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

 

 

All this week we’ve focused on hurricane preparedness, but you’ll find dozens of other preparedness articles in the blog by searching this link.

 

And if you missed any of my earlier blogs this week on hurricane preparedness, you can visit them at the links below:

 

Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster

Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding

Hurricane Preparedness Week & The Tale Of The Tape

Storm Surge Monday

National Hurricane Preparedness Week – Day 1