Reminder: Thanksgiving Is National Family History Day

 

Free Online Tool From HHS to Collect Family HX

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One of the perils of blogging for two decades is that over time embedded links to outside sources no longer function. The past couple of years have been particularly bad following major upgrades/revamping of both the CDC and WHO websites, where even some of their internal links go nowhere.

Normally, the day before Thanksgiving I repost my annual `Thanksgiving Is National Family History Day' blog, with links and quotes from the CDC, the HHS, and the Office of the Surgeon General. 

Since 2023, some of those links (here & here) have gone missing, although the CDC retains an abbreviated version at https://www.cdc.gov/family-health-history/

So, starting over . . . 

Every year since 2004 the Surgeon General of the United States has declared Thanksgiving – a day when families traditionally gather together - as National Family History Day, since it provides an excellent opportunity to ask about and document the medical history of relatives.

As a former paramedic, I am keenly aware of how important it is for everyone to know and have access to their personal and family medical history.

During routine visits with your doctor, knowing your family history can provide important information regarding your care. Under more urgent conditions, emergency room doctors are often faced with patients unable to remember or relay their health history, current medications, or even drug allergies during a medical crisis.

Which is why I always keep an EMERGENCY MEDICAL HISTORY CARD – filled out and frequently updated – in my wallet, and have urged (and have helped) others in my family to do the same.

I addressed this issue at some length in a 2009 blog called Those Who Forget Their History . . . . A few excerpts (but follow the link to read the whole thing):

Since you can’t always know, in advance when you might need medical care it is important to carry with you some kind of medical history at all times. It can tell doctors important information about your history, medications, and allergies when you can’t.

Many hospitals and pharmacies provide – either free, or for a very nominal sum – folding wallet medical history forms with a plastic sleeve to protect them. Alternatively, there are templates available online.

I’ve scanned the one offered by one of our local hospitals below. It is rudimentary, but covers the basics.

Since family gatherings are common over the holidays, Thanksgiving can be an ideal time to ask family members about their medical history. The HHS even provides a free, online tool, for organizing and storing this information.

The CDC's website contains additional information, including:

Family Health History and Adults

Key points

• If you have a family health history of a chronic disease such as cancer, heart disease, or diabetes, you are more likely to get that disease yourself.
• Knowing your family health history risk can help you—if you act on it.
• Share your family health history with your healthcare provider, who can help you take steps to prevent disease and catch it early if it develops.
• Finding disease early can often mean better health in the long run.

And lastly, a couple of other items that - while not exactly a medical history - may merit discussion in your family as it has in mine (see 2012's His Bags Are Packed, He’s Ready To Go).

• First, all adults should consider having a Living Will that specifies what types of medical treatment you would desire should you become incapacitated, and unable to communicate your wishes.  
• While not a `legal document' the CDC also provides a `Complete Care Plan' PDF tool  for managing day-to-day care. 

• You may also wish to consider assigning someone as your Health Care Proxy, who can make decisions regarding your treatment should you be unable to do so for yourself. 

• Elderly family members with chronic health problems, or those with terminal illnesses, may even desire a home DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) Order. 
• Without legal documentation, verbal instructions by family members – even if the patient is in the last stages of an incurable illness – are likely to be ignored by emergency personnel.

While admittedly, not the cheeriest topic of conversation in the world, a few minutes spent during this Thanksgiving holiday putting together concise written medical histories could spare you and your family a great deal of anguish down the road.

Preprint: Emergence of a Novel Reassorted HPAI A(H5N2) Virus Associated with Severe Pneumonia in a Young Adult

 

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Roughly 6 weeks ago we saw the brief mention in an Oct 15th PAHO H5N1 Epidemiological Report of an H5 case in Mexico City, although details on the virus were limited. 

On 2 October 2025, Mexico's International Health Regulations (IHR) National Focal Point (NFP)notified PAHO/WHO of a laboratory-confirmed human infection caused by avian influenza A(H5) virus in Mexico City, the second confirmed human case in the country in 2025 (6, 7).

The patient - a woman in her 20's - developed symptoms on September 14th, and after two weeks of increasing respiratory distress was finally hospitalized and a bronchoalveolar lavage sample was obtained, which tested positive for an unsubtypable influenza A on Sept 29th.

As of that initial announcement, the NA type remained undetermined.

This was the third H5 case reported from Mexico since 2024, and the source of all three remain undetermined.

• The first occurred in April of 2024 (see Mexico announced the death of a 58-year-old man) when a patient - who also suffered from serious comorbidities - tested positive for LPAI H5N2, becoming the first laboratory-confirmed human case of influenza A(H5N2) infection reported globally.

• A year later (April 2025), a 3-year old girl from Durango State died following an H5N1 infection (see WHO DON Update On Mexico's Fatal H5N1 Infection).

On October 18th, in the ECDC Summary: Human Infection with Avian Influenza A(H5) virus - Mexico - 2025, a few more details emerged, but it still wasn't clear whether this was H5N1, H5N2, or some other subtype.

About a week ago, the WHO published their latest Influenza at the human-animal interface summary and assessment report, which identified the full subtype as H5N2, but further characterization of the virus was reportedly still underway.

Somewhat intriguingly, that report did disclose:

Respiratory samples collected from close contacts including hospital contacts, tested negative for influenza viruses. During the epidemiologic investigation, several animals (including birds) and bird droppings were found in the building where the case resides, in an area the case passes frequently. A dog was identified as a pet at the case’s residence. Samples collected from the animals tested positive for influenza A(H5). Information on whether this virus was a high or low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAI or LPAI) is pending further testing

Overnight, a fascinating new preprint has appeared on the medRxiv server, which provides additional - and somewhat concerning - details on this latest case.  It turns out this H5N2 virus was a new reassortment between the local, long-endemic, LPAI H5N2 virus in Mexico and the clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 virus circulating globally. 

While numerous H5N1 reassortments have occurred in the past, producing scores of new H5N1 genotypes (e.g. A3, B3.13, D1.1, D1.2, D1.3, etc.), this introduces a novel subtype - HPAI H5N2 - to an already crowded field. 

First the abstract, and a few excerpts from this preprint, but you'll want to read it in its entirety. I'll have a bit more after the break.

Emergence of a novel reassorted high pathogenicity avian influenza A(H5N2) virus associated with severe pneumonia in a young adult

Joel Armando Vazquez-Perez, Eduardo Becerril-Vargas, Jose Ernesto Ramirez-Gonzalez, Mario Solis-Hernandez, Charles Todd Davis, Pamela Garciadiego-Fossas, Marco Villanueva-Reza, Hansel Hugo Chavez-Morales, Enrique Mendoza-Ramirez, Christian Diego Olivares-Flores, America Citlai Vera-Jimenez, Uriel Rumbo-Nava, Cristobal Guadarrama-Perez, Elio German Recinos-Carrera, Joaquin Zuniga, Irma Lopez-Martinez, Lucia Hernandez-Rivas, Gisela Barrera-Badillo, Nohemi Colin-Soto, Laura Flores-Cisneros, Guillermo Carbajal-Sandoval, Diana Vidal-Aguirre, Dayanira Sarith Arellano-Suarez, Rodrigo Aparicio-Antonio, Ramiro Lopez-Elizalde, Carlos Javier Alcazar-Ramiro, Armando Garcia-Lopez, Han Di, Marie Kirby, Yunho Jang, Miguel Angel Lezana-Fernandez, Carmen Margarita Hernandez-Cardenas

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.11.21.25340167

        PDF 

Abstract

Background Infection of backyard and poultry with low pathogenicity avian influenza LPAI A(H5N2) viruses has occurred in Mexico since 1994, and the first human infection caused by this influenza virus was detected in 2024. Since its emergence in the Americas, frequent reassortments between high pathogenicity avian influenza HPAI A(H5N1) and LPAI viruses has occurred.

In September 2025, the Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias of Mexico City identified an unsubtypeable influenza A virus infection in a young adult patient later determined to be a reassortant HPAI (H5N2) virus with a clade 2.3.4.4b HA.

Methods We analyzed clinical and epidemiologic data from this patient. Respiratory samples were tested for influenza RT-qPCR assays. Genomic sequence and phylogenetics analyses were performed to provisionally assign a new genotype to the novel HPAI A(H5N2) reassortant virus.

Results The patient presented with fever and tachypnea, later developed hemoptysis and thoracic pain, with oxygen saturation decreasing to 70%. CT scan showed bilateral ground-glass opacities consistent with diffuse alveolar hemorrhage and zones consistent with consolidation. Clinical improvement was observed and the patient was discharged.

Through viral complete genome analysis, we identified an HPAI A(H5N2) virus with genes from both clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N1) viruses similar to those detected in North America during 2022-2023 and genes from the LPAI A(H5N2) viruses detected in Mexico during 2024.

Conclusions This is the first ever laboratory-confirmed human infection caused by an HPAI A(H5N2) virus infection, suggesting a new genotype provisionally classified as B3.14. The relationship of the virus with the severity of illness remains unknown.

       (SNIP)      

Further studies are required to determine the predicted pathogenicity and the transmissibility of the virus and its potential threat to human health. Although obesity was the sole comorbidity, the patient exhibited unusually extensive pulmonary damage, underscoring the need for further characterization of their pathogenic potential of this or related viruses. Since no cases of this reassorted A(H5N2) influenza virus in humans have been previously reported, we are unaware of the clinical outcomes that this HPAI virus subtype may have in humans.

Given the virus's propensity for rapid genetic reassortment, genomic surveillance is essential, particularly for emerging strains. Such surveillance forms a critical component of global preparedness and rapid response strategies, enabling countries to strengthen viral diagnostics, vaccine development and therapeutic strategies to prevent widespread outbreaks.

In summary, our findings support the emergence of a new clade 2.3.4.4b reassortant virus provisionally classified as genotype B3.14 and the first ever global human case of an HPAI A(H5N2) virus infection.

       (Continue . . . )
 

While the public health implications of a one-off infection such as this are hard to assess, this is the second human infection with a novel subtype reported in North America in a matter of a few weeks (see Washington State DOH: H5N5 Avian influenza confirmed in Grays Harbor County resident). 

Both cases may well end up being flukes, but they remind us that influenza A's superpower is its ability to continually reinvent itself through reassortment.  

Admittedly, most reassortants end up as evolutionary failures - unable to compete against the panoply of existing flu strains - but on rare occasions an overachiever is generated.   

And should that overachiever also have (or develop) an affinity for infecting humans, then our world may face yet another global health threat. 

EFSA: Unprecedented High Level of HPAI in Wild Birds in Europe During the 2025 Autumn Migration

The Uncertain Picture in October

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A month ago, in A Robust Start To Avian Flu Season In Europe & North America, we looked at worrying signs that the recent trend in declining European HPAI outbreaks (see chart above) might be over, and that we could be on the verge of seeing a significant uptick in bird flu activity. 

As early as August the UK reported an unexpected summer surge in H5N1 outbreaks in poultry farms, and by mid-September we were seeing similar trends reported in North America (see Canada & U.S. Report Early Fall Uptick In H5N1 Outbreaks In Poultry).

Replacing the ? in my graphic of a month ago, we now have the first EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) assessment, which confirms that an `unprecedented'  high level of HPAI has occurred in Europe in recent weeks.

  

The above graphic comes from the following 9-page report, published yesterday by the EFSA, which characterizes this as the fastest start to the fall HPAI season since at least 2016.  

As we discussed last August, in H5Nx: Reassort & Repeat, the emergence of new genotypes of HPAI H5 is often associated with increased virulence and/or transmission of avian flu viruses.  

Not surprisingly, today's announcement contains confirmation that the bulk of the detections this fall in Europe are due to a new genotype DI.2.1 While we've yet to see a detailed phenotypic characterization of this variant, it appears to be the driving force behind this surge. 

First, the abstract and some excerpts, followed by a statement from the EFSA. I'll have a bit more after the break.

Unprecedented high level of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds in Europe during the 2025 autumn migration

Published: 24 November 2025
Documents
EFSA statement_HPAI_6 Sep-14 Nov
QUESTION NUMBER
EFSA-Q-2025-00661
CONTACT biohaw@efsa.europa.eu

Abstract

Between 6 September and 14 November 2025, 1,443 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) virus detections were reported in wild birds across 26 countries in Europe. This number was four times higher than in the same period in 2024 and the highest overall for those weeks since at least 2016.

Almost all the detections (99%) were due to HPAI A(H5N1) viruses, and most of them belonged to EA-2024-DI.2.1, a new sub-lineage of the EA-2024-DI.2 genotype.

These HPAI virus detections in wild birds involved increasing numbers of waterfowl species (ducks, geese and swans) that were found positive in large parts of Europe. In addition, high numbers of common cranes were affected across a wide band stretching from northeast to southwest Europe.

Given the unprecedented high circulation of HPAI virus in the wild bird population compared to previous years, and the associated high environmental contamination, strict biosecurity measures and early detection of infected poultry establishments are urgently needed to prevent introductions from wild to domestic birds and further spread among poultry establishments. Prompt removal of wild bird carcasses is indicated to reduce the risk of infection for other wild and domestic birds and mammals.

© European Food Safety Authority        

3. Results

During the current reporting period from 6 September to 14 November 2025, a total of1,443 HPAI virus detections in wild birds (with an HPAI virus detection potentially including more than one wild bird species) were reported in Europe. Compared to the same dates in previous years, this number was four times higher than in 2024, ten times higher than in 2023, twice as high as in 2022, and four times higher than in 2021 (Figure 1).

        (SNIP)

Based on genetic data available so far, most of the HPAI A(H5N1) viruses identified were a variant of the previously circulating EA-2024-DI.2 genotype, which has mutated sufficiently to form a new sub-lineage, namely EA-2024.DI.2.1. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that this sub-lineage was probably newly introduced into Europe during autumn migration from the east and rapidly spread westward. 

        (Continue . . . )

Avian influenza in Europe: enhanced surveillance and strict biosecurity needed as detections surge

Published: 24 November 2025
Last reviewed date: 25 November 2025
  


Between 6 September and 14 November 2025, 1,443 detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses were reported in wild birds across 26 European countries – four times higher than the same period in 2024 and the highest since at least 2016.

Waterfowl in various parts of Europe were heavily affected by HPAI during this period, including detections in apparently healthy wild birds, resulting in widespread environmental contamination. There were also high-mortality outbreaks in common cranes in Germany, France and Spain.

The vast majority of HPAI virus detections (99%) were reported as A(H5N1), and most were of a new variant of a previously circulating strain that was introduced into Europe from the east before rapidly spreading westward.

Among other measures, enhanced surveillance for early detection and robust biosecurity on farms are urgently required to prevent the introduction of HPAI in domestic birds and onward spread among poultry establishments.

Recommended measures

Depending on their role, EFSA advises national, regional and local authorities, those involved in domestic poultry production and wild bird management, and those responsible for mammals at risk of avian influenza, to implement the following actions.

• Maintain high biosecurity in establishments keeping domestic birds, during both normal production and culling operations.
• Issue housing orders for domestic birds in areas with confirmed HPAI in wild birds or mass mortality events.
• Enhance surveillance in domestic birds to ensure early detection of infection in poultry establishments.
• Focus wild bird surveillance on wetland areas and migratory stopover sites within and outside Europe.
• Include wildlife rescue or rehabilitation centres in surveillance and ensure adequate biosecurity.
• Avoid artificial feeding of wild birds – especially cranes and swans – during high‑risk periods to reduce crowding and transmission risk.
• Remove wild bird carcasses promptly to reduce contamination of the environment with HPAI and prevent infection of other wild or domestic birds and mammals.
• Minimise disturbance of wild bird populations (e.g. hunting, leisure activities, drones) to limit further dispersal of the virus.
• Monitoring and awareness-raising tools EFSA’s Bird Flu Radar can be used to monitor the probability of the introduction of HPAI virus in wild bird populations in Europe over space and time.

Access the Bird Flu Radar here. 

In September 2025, EFSA and the European Commission published the #NoBirdFlu communication toolkit – practical, ready‑to‑use materials (posters, infographic, stickers, social media posts) available in all EU languages to support farmers and veterinarians in implementing biosecurity on poultry farms.

Access the toolkit here.

Links to science
Avian influenza

Unprecedented high level of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds in Europe during the 2025 autumn migration

It is striking how often the world `unprecedented' crops up in avian flu reports;

an Unprecedented `Order Shift'

`a panzootic of unprecedented scale'

Unprecedented H5N1 outbreak: a rare cross-species influenza threat

 H5N1 High pathogenicity avian influenza in wild birds -Unprecedented conservation impacts and urgent needs

H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b caused an unprecedented number of deaths among wild birds and poultry in numerous countries

A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b has resulted in unprecedented impact to animal health 

Despite these (and numerous other) clarion calls we continue to treat HPAI H5Nx as if it is the same virus that failed to spark a pandemic in 2006-2008.  

Most governments would rather ignore the threat, since its easier than dealing with it; and the public remains largely disinterested (see Two Surveys (UK & U.S.) Illustrating The Public's Lack of Concern Over Avian Flu).

While we may be able to abide the current level of damage to our economies, and to our shared ecosystems, there are no guarantees the stakes won't rise precipitously in the future.

At which point we may find our response options are far more limited than they are today.

Australia: Confirmation of H5 Bird Flu on Sub-Antarctic Heard Island

Heard & McDonald Islands - Credit Wikipedia

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A month ago, in Australia DAFF & DCCEEW: Suspected H5 bird flu in Elephant Seals at Australian Sub-Antarctic Island, we learned of the first suspected incursion of HPAI into an Australian possession; Heard Island. 

Australia, NZ, and the islands of Oceania are the only major regions of the earth that remain HPAI H5 free - and while Heard Island is far-removed from the Mainland (see map above) - this was a sobering reminder that the virus continues to increase its geographic range. 

Our last update (Nov 8th) indicated that samples were enroute to Australia aboard the icebreaker RSV Nuyina, and would be delivered mid-month to the testing facilities of Australia's National science agency CSIRO.

While the results were not unexpected - and this doesn't change Australia's H5-free status - overnight the Australian government issued the following Joint Media release, providing:

Confirmation of H5 bird flu on sub-Antarctic Heard Island

25 November 2025

Senator The Hon Murray Watt, Minister for the Environment and Water
The Hon Julie Collins MP, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

Testing has confirmed the presence of the H5 high pathogenicity avian influenza (H5 bird flu) in samples collected from southern elephant seals on Heard Island – a sub-Antarctic Australian external territory.

Heard Island is extremely remote, located more than 4000km south-west of Perth and 1700km north of Antarctica in the Southern Ocean.

Given the known presence of this virus nearby on the French Kerguelen and Crozet sub-Antarctic islands, these results are not unexpected, and the detection does not substantially increase the risk to Australia from current levels.

While Australia’s H5 bird flu freedom status remains unchanged, the test results serve as a reminder of the importance of ongoing vigilance, coordinated biosecurity measures, and preparedness across governments, industry, and conservation partners.

The Albanese Labor Government is investing more than $100 million to strengthen bird flu preparedness and enhance national response capability – including towards the delivery of rapid response equipment in every state and territory.

Samples were collected after Australian Antarctic Program scientists observed unusual levels of mortality in elephant seals during a recent management voyage to Heard Island.

Testing was conducted by the CSIRO’s Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness in Geelong after the samples were securely packaged and arrived in Australia on Monday 17 November aboard RSV Nuyina.

Testing confirmed the presence of H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4b virus in these samples.

There were no observations of unusual mortality in other species present on the island, including penguins and other seabirds.

A second voyage to Heard Island, scheduled to arrive late December, will be important to gather further information about wildlife health.

Quotes attributable to Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Julie Collins MP:

“While this detection of H5 bird flu on Heard Island does not substantially increase risks to Australia, it does reinforce the ongoing need for Australia to remain focused on preparing for a potential outbreak.

“That’s why our Government is investing over $100 million in preparedness measures and building the capacity needed to respond effectively to H5 bird flu should it occur here.

“Australia remains the only continent free from the highly contagious strain of H5 bird flu.

“This detection on Heard Island demonstrates Australia’s strong biosecurity capability, scientific leadership and commitment to the environment and wildlife in the sub-Antarctic region.”

Quotes attributable to Minister for the Environment and Water, Murray Watt:

“Australian researchers are monitoring the global spread of bird flu so that we are equipped with the best possible information for when it reaches our shores.

“More sampling, wildlife health monitoring and assessment of potential impacts will occur during a second expedition to the Heard Island and McDonald Islands, which is scheduled to arrive at Heard Island in late December and return to Hobart in February 2026.

“This confirmation reinforces the importance and urgency of the work currently underway across Australia to protect threatened species and priority biodiversity, and build resilience of our most at risk species in nature.”

Three weeks ago, in Preprint: Surveillance of migratory shorebirds and seabirds in 2024 in Australia reveals incursions of a diversity of low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses, but not HPAI H5N1, we saw reassuring evidence that HPAI had yet to arrive in Australia. 

How long that happy state of affairs will persist is anyone's guess. 

The NERC 2025-2026 Winter (Electrical Grid) Reliability Assessment

 

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Not quite 5 years ago (Feb 2021) 3 successive winter storms swept across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, causing the worst collapse of the Texas energy grid on record (see Texas: The Latest - But Not The Last - Grid Down Crisis).

At least 4.5 million homes were without power during a week of  bitter winter temperatures,  resulting in hundreds of deaths and tens of billions of dollars of damage (see City of Austin & Travis County 2021 WINTER STORM URI AFTER-ACTION REVIEW).

As anyone who lives in hurricane country can tell you; widespread, and often prolonged power outages are common following natural disasters. But the threats to our electrical grid extend far beyond severe weather.

Every four years the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) releases a report card on America’s infrastructure, and their most recent report (2025) warns that our cumulative GPA for infrastructure sits at only a C, and one of our most vulnerable infrastructures is the electrical grid (D+).  

In their previous (2021) assessment, the ASCE gave the U.S. electrical grid a C-, so this is not a reassuring trajectory. 

In the fall of 2024, a preprint (see Establishing Nationwide Power System Vulnerability Index across US Counties Using Interpretable Machine Learning) - recently published in Applied Energy - warned on the increasing vulnerability of of the U.S. power grid over the past decade.

They identified `. . . 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas)'

And last summer, the U.S. Department of Energy published a 73-page report that warns that if current schedules for retirement of reliable power generation (especially baseload) continue, without enough firm replacement, the risk of blackouts in 2030 could increase by 100× over current levels.

Number one on their Key Takeaways is:

Status Quo is Unsustainable. The status quo of more generation retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability (ensuring “resource adequacy”). 

Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens.

Their words, not mine.    

In addition to ageing infrastructure, and ever increasing power demands, there are threats from cyber attacks (see DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report), solar flares and CMEs (see FEMA: Preparing the Nation for Space Weather Events), and even potential disruptions due to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis.

These are serious enough threats that in December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage. 

It is the job of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to "ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system", a mandate given to it in 2006 as a result of the 2003 Northeast blackout which affected more than 50 million people in the United States and Ontario, Canada.

Last week NERC released 56-page winter reliability assessment, which warns that:

Rising Demand, Evolving Resources Continue to Challenge Winter Grid Reliability
November 18, 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C.—NERC’s 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA) finds that much of North America is again at an elevated risk of having insufficient energy supplies to meet demand in extreme operating conditions. Although resources are adequate for normal winter peak demand, any prolonged, wide-area cold snaps will be challenging. This is largely due to rising electricity demand, which has grown by 20 GW since last winter, significantly outpacing winter on-peak capacity. This, coupled with the changing resource mix, is affecting the winter outlook.

“Electricity demand continues to grow faster than the resources being added to the grid, especially during the most extreme winter conditions where actual demand can topple forecasts by as much as 25%--as we saw in 2021 in ERCOT and SPP,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis. “This latest assessment highlights progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest conditions.”

       (SNIP) 

 This year’s assessment, previewed in the 2025-2026 WRA video and summarized in the WRA infographic, makes a series of recommendations to reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on the bulk power system this winter:Cold Weather Preparations: Reliability Coordinators (RC), Balancing Authorities (BA), and Transmission Operators (TOP) in the elevated risk areas should review seasonal operating plans and protocols for communicating and resolving potential supply shortfalls in anticipation of potentially high generator outages and extreme demand levels. Operators should review NERC’s Resources on Cold Weather Preparations.

        (Continue . . . )
 

While there is admittedly not much you or I can do about the state of the power grid, we can all prepare for outages, particularly during times of severe weather. Ready.gov has a #WinterReady Preparedness page, with helpful advice on preparing for extreme cold. 

My `standard advice' is that everyone should strive to have the ability to withstand 7 to 10 days without power and water.

 Recommended preps include:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal. 
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

Some of my preparedness blogs on how to become better prepared in case the lights go out include:

The Gift of Preparedness - Winter 2023 Edition

 #NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness

How Not To Swelter In Place

Wind Chill, Hypothermia & Other Cold Weather Hazards

Being prepared for prolonged power outages won't guarantee you and your loved ones will come through a major disaster unscathed. But it is relatively cheap insurance. 

And when things go pear-shaped, it can substantially improve your chances.

With A Potentially Severe Flu Season Ahead: Time to Line Up A `Flu Buddy'

 

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One of the key messages of this blog over the past 18+ years has been the need to have - and to be - a `Flu' or `Disaster Buddy'. To prearrange with family, friends, or neighbors a mutual assistance agreement, where you would be there for them, and they for you, during an emergency.

Time To Line Up A `Flu Buddy'

In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?

According to the 2020 census, a record breaking 36 million Americans live alone (see chart above), and while many of those are younger people who are waiting later to get married, a side effect of our longer lifespan and high divorce rate is that 40% of those single households are held by those over the age of 65.

The 2020 census also identified nearly 11 million single-parent households with minor children.  Here, if the lone adult falls seriously ill, even more lives are potentially at risk.

Whether we live alone by choice or by happenstance, we all share a common vulnerability. If we get sick, or injured, there may be no one around to notice, or to help.  

As a paramedic I saw far too many people who lived alone who either died, or spent miserable hours or even days incapacitated and unable to call for help, due to an illness or accident. 

With a potentially severe flu season on its way (see Increasing Concerns Over A `Drifted' H3N2 Virus This Flu Season), now is the time to make (ideally, reciprocal) arrangements with family, friends, and neighbors to act as `flu buddies'. 

No one really knows what this mutated flu virus will do in the months ahead, but there are concerns we could see a major wave of (hopefully mild) disease. Even so, many hospitals may be overwhelmed, and the majority of people who fall ill will have to be treated at home.

Which means, if you haven't done so already, now is the right time to gather your `flu supplies'; Face masks, hand sanitizer, OTC cold & `flu' remedies.  While there are no shortages today, in the past we've seen some of these items become hard to source during severe flu seasons. 

While the CDC still maintains a `Treatment of Flu' webpage (which deals primarily with Rx antivirals for flu), their more `user-friendly' home flu treatment advice appears to have been shuffled off to the archive (`CDC Stacks').   

Luckily, it is still accessible if you know where to look.

Being part of a `high risk group', earlier this month I also discussed with my doctor getting an over-the-phone Rx for Oseltamivir, if I should contract the flu this year.  

My `flu buddy' and I have discussed the logistics of how we'll deal with this (or any other) flu epidemic and we'll stay in daily contact with one another by phone. If either of us run a fever, or develop symptoms, we'll up that to a call twice a day.

While we are both fully vaccinated (flu & COVID), we won't unnecessarily expose each other to the virus. But if either one of us becomes ill enough to need in-person assistance, we are fully prepared to do a home visit (wearing PPEs) to provide whatever assistance is necessary. 

The time to have this type of conversation with friends, relatives, and neighbors is now. If you don't feel comfortable actually caring for someone who is sick, you can at least promise to check on them by phone daily, leave `care packages' at their front door, or even call an ambulance for them if necessary.

This is also a good time to update and print out a 1-page (or wallet-sized) medical history on yourself, and all members of your family (see Thanksgiving Is National Family History Day) in case you need to see a doctor who doesn't have your medical information. 

Frankly, having (and being) a `Flu' or `Disaster Buddy’ to friends, neighbors, and relatives should be part of everyone’s family disaster plan. Since 2017, I've had to evacuate due to Hurricanes 3 times, and each time my disaster/flu buddy took me (and my cat) in for several days with no questions asked.

While some people may invest in a stockpile of freeze dried food, or buy the latest survival gadgets, and think themselves prepared . . . I can assure you that having people you can truly depend on in an emergency is the greatest prep of all.