NHC: Isaias Now A Tropical Storm - Forecast to Threaten Northern Gulf Coast As A Strong Hurricane

 #19,362

October storms born in the Bay of Campeche have a reputation for spinning up rapidly as they approach a landfall.  Although that doesn't always happen, it occurs often enough to take these late season storms seriously.

While conditions in the gulf were described as `only marginally conducive for development' just 24 hours ago, the NHC is now forecasting Isaias to ramp up to a strong CAT 2 hurricane by the end of the week.

Estimated wind speeds and positions from today's (Oct 7th) NHC discussion:

Watches and warnings have not been raised yet, but the NHC will probably do so later today. For now the NHC's key messages to the public are:

 

Currently, it appears that anywhere from the western panhandle of Florida to central Louisiana are in the cone, but high winds, surge tides, and heavy rains are likely to impact well beyond those limits. 

Inland flooding could occur hundreds of miles inland, and spin-off tornadoes are possible across much of the southeast. Widespread power outages are likely. 

 

If this is your first hurricane season - or you are just in need of a refresher - you'll find a number of short videos on hurricane prepareded at this NOAA website:

Hurricane Prep: social media (English)

The Hurricane Preparedness Week Social Media Plan

2026 SOCIAL MEDIA PLANS AND VIDEOS English: May 3 - May 9, 2026

En español: 3 de mayo - 9 de mayo de 2026

Chinese: 年5月3日 - 2025年5月9日

Vietnamese: Ngày 3 Tháng 5, Năm - Ngày 9 Tháng 5, Năm 2026

English: Videos

En español: Videos

#HurricaneStrong #HurricanePrep

Please help the NWS spread the word about Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-May 9, 2026) on social media! Everyone is welcome to use the text and images provided below to help the NWS build a Weather-Ready Nation.

May 3, 2026 — Know Your Risk: Wind & Water

May 4, 2026 — Prepare Before Hurricane Season

May 5, 2026 — Understand Forecast Information

May 6, 2026 — Get Moving When a Storm Threatens

May 7, 2026 — Stay Protected During Storms

May 8, 2026 — Use Caution After Storms

May 9, 2026 —Take Action Today

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

Referral Preprint: The mammalian-adaptive PB2-E627K substitution preserves viral fitness of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV in birds.

 
#19,362

While worrisome, HPAI H5Nx remains primarily an avian-adapted virus, despite increasingly spilling over into mammalian species (including humans).  These spillovers, however, provide opportunities for the virus to adapt - through amino acid substitutions (mutations) - to mammals. 

Without changes the virus remains optimized for avian physiology.  Mammalian infection remains possible, but is less likely to spread efficiently through a population.  

While there are a number of these adaptive mutations, one we watch for carefully is PB2-E627K, which increases the ability of avian flu viruses to replicate in a mammalian host. 

This mutation is rarely seen in birds, but can appear in mammals after they are infected by birds (see Mammalian Adaptation in the PB2 Gene of Avian H5N1 Influenza Virus).

It has always been a bit of a mystery why this 627K mutation hasn't become `fixed' in avian hosts during this current panzootic, with some researchers suggesting it may impose some kind of  `fitness penalty' in birds. 

While found in about 1% of avian H5N1 sequences, it is reportedly more common (based on limited surveillance) in avian hosts infected with H5N5. 

In 2024, however, we looked at a slightly different mutation at the same location in the PB2 gene (E627V), which has emerged in poultry viruses (see Preprint: An Emerging PB2-627 Polymorphism Increases the Pandemic Potential of Avian Influenza).

The authors report that the PB2-627V mutation not only maintains viral fitness in poultry, it facilitates the respiratory transmission of AIVs between ferrets. The concern was this mutation could go a long way in overcoming the `species barrier' between avian and mammalian-adapted influenza viruses.

This 627V mutation has also appeared in other avian viruses (H9N2, H7N9, H5N6, etc.) with zoonotic potential (see Vet. Research: E627V Mutation in PB2 Protein Promotes the Mammalian Adaptation of Novel H10N3 Avian Influenza Virus).

All of which brings us to a preprint, authored by a number of well known UK researchers, which investigates whether the PB2 E627K mutation exacts a fitness penalty in birds.

They report finding no `measurable fitness cost in chickens and ducks', which suggests there may be other `ecological and epidemiological constraints' at work.

This, they suggest, means that mammalian-adaptive mutations acquired during spillover could spread and persist in avian populations, potentially raising zoonotic risk. 

They go on to stress the value of surveillance for such mutations in birds.

Due to copyright issues, I can't do my regular deep dissection of the paper, but I can refer you to the preprint, which is very much worth reading. 

The mammalian-adaptive PB2-E627K substitution preserves viral fitness of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV in birds.

Elizabeth Billington, Sofia Riccio, Maryn D. Brown, Benjamin Mollett, Jessica L. Quantrill, Simon Johnson, Cecilia Di Genova, Jiayun Yang, Jean-Remy Sadeyen, Audra-Lynne Schlachter, Kelly J. Roper, Jafar Hassan, Benjamin Clifton, Kajal Ralh, Caroline Janet Warren, Georgina Ward, Dilhani De Silva, Alejandro Nunez, Holly A. Coombes, Marek J Slomka, Munir Iqbal, Wendy S. Barclay, Thomas Peacock, Ashley C Banyard, Joe James
doi: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.06.757006 

It isn't known what mutation - or series of mutations - would be needed to turn H5Nx into a genuine pandemic threat. What we know is 1) these viruses continue to evolve, 2) they have spread globally, and 3) in recent years they have expanded both their avian and mammalian host ranges. 

H5Nx continues to surprise, but whether that will lead to a global health crisis is anyone's guess. But just because it hasn't yet, doesn't mean it can't. 

 Which is reason enough to remain vigilant.  

NHC Monitoring Gulf Disturbance with 80% Chance of Development

 

#19,361

As a hurricane weary Floridian (see 2024's Hurricane Watches Raised For Most of Florida's West Coast), our El Niño dampened 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season has been a happy respite.  The last time there were no hurricanes this late into  October was 1914 (albeit, well before satellite coverage). 

There are still nearly 2 months left to the season (ends Nov 30th), so we may not get away completely unscathed.  

While conditions are only marginally conducive, the National Hurricane Center has given an area off the Mexican gulf coast an 80% chance of developing into a tropical system. 

If that happens, it will be named Isaias.

 

While it is too early to predict its strength or where it might head, residents along the northern Gulf coast should keep tabs on its development. The overnight forecast from the NWS NHC reads:

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):

A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is

producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although

environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for

development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next

couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward

through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It

is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf

Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of

this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Our summer reprieve due to El Niño may be short-lived, as this phenomenon often brings wet and stormy winters to the gulf coast, and can batter California with repeated torrential rains (see California Declares State of Emergency to Bolster Statewide El Niño Preparedness).

As we discussed a month ago, in #NPM26: Preparing For An El Niño Winter, many parts of our country - and the world - may experience wild or unusual weather patterns over the next few months. 

Some areas may see floods, or ice storms, or blizzards, while others may see drought, or other weather anomalies.  While not everyone will be affected, this winter, it is a good idea to expect the unexpected. 

Follow-up on The Russian `Lab Leak' Story

 

#19,360

Two days ago, in About that Russian `Lab Leak' Story, we looked at admittedly sparse details on a purported lab accident at a Russian plague research institute in Irkutsk, Siberia which supposedly caused the death of a 28-year-old female lab worker. 

While this story has been making headlines around the world, nothing appears to have been confirmed. The WHO has been quoted as saying `it was aware of reports' and `it had offered support to Russia', but no cause of death had been determined.

The Interfax News Agency, which often reflects the Kremlin's position, reported on Sunday:

        (Translated)

Rospotrebnadzor reported a stable situation in the Irkutsk region. 

Moscow. October 4. INTERFAX.RU - Rospotrebnadzor reported that the sanitary and epidemiological situation in the Irkutsk region and the cities of Irkutsk and Shelekhov is stable.

"The sanitary and epidemiological situation in the Irkutsk region and the cities of Irkutsk and Shelekhov is stable. A special set of measures has been organized and implemented in response to the case of an employee of the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and the Far East who has been diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown etiology," the Rospotrebnadzor press service said in a statement on Sunday.

Based on the results of extensive testing, no microorganisms associated with the patient's professional activities were detected in the patient's sample, the department noted.

All my attempts to access the Rospotrebnadzor website (including via VPN) over the past few days have failed, and I'm seeing others are having similar difficulties.

 Today Taiwan's CDC addressed the reports in a statement on their website. 

In response to the suspected plague deaths reported in Russia, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has inquired about the incident through the International Health Regulations mechanism and is continuously monitoring the domestic and international epidemic situation and strengthening border quarantine measures.

        (Translated Excerpt)

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) stated on October 6, 2026, regarding recent international media reports of a death from pneumonia of unknown cause reported on October 2, 2026, in Irkutsk Oblast, Siberia, Russia. The patient was a 28-year-old female laboratory technician at the Irkutsk Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, who died on October 2 after developing severe pneumonia.

According to an official statement issued by the Rospotrebnadzor (Russian official infectious disease management agency), as reported by local Russian media, expanded testing of the infected employee's samples revealed no special microorganisms related to her job duties. The country's biosafety expert committee also confirmed that no pathogen leakage occurred at the laboratory.

 

Furthermore, Russia has conducted extensive testing and hospitalized isolation observation on all contacts. Currently, only two cases of COVID-19 and two cases of rhinovirus infection have been detected, with no other special infectious disease pathogens found, and the relevant contacts have no abnormal symptoms. The incidence of respiratory diseases among the general population in the region remains within the normal seasonal range. Further information is still pending clarification. A WHO spokesperson stated that the public health risk posed by this event to the general public is low.

To monitor the situation, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) inquired with the International Health Regulations (IHR) window in Russia on October 5th for detailed information regarding the event to clarify the local epidemic situation and the risk of cross-border transmission. The CDC also sent a letter to the WHO today (October 6th) requesting information related to this case.

       (Continue . . . )

This press release appears to be mostly geared towards reassuring Taiwan's people that their CDC is aware of reports, and is making inquiries, but thus far there  appears to be no imminent threat. 

Exactly what happened - or may still be happening - in Irkutsk, Siberia remains unknown.  And frankly, there are no guarantees we'll ever get the full story.

Despite the reporting requirements of the IHR (International Health Regulations), many countries hold outbreak information close to their vest for political, societal, or economic reasons, since there are few downsides to doing so  (see From Here to Impunity).  

If there are any big developments I'll cover it, but if you want to keep up with the day-to-day developments, this FluTrackers thread should keep you well informed. 

 

AVMA: How can veterinary personnel recognize and protect themselves from domestic cats infected with HPAI A(H5N1) viruses?

 

#19,359

Last May, in MMWR: Serologic Evidence of HPAI A(H5N1) Virus Infection in a Veterinary Professional Exposed to an Infected Domestic Cat we looked at a probable cat-to-human transmission of HPAI H5N1. 

While long considered possible, actual evidence of cat-to-human transmission of avian flu viruses has been pretty sparse. Two notable exceptions being:

• In 2005, the CDC's EID Journal Probable Tiger-to-Tiger Transmission of Avian Influenza H5N1, reported that while no humans tested positive by RT-PCR, 2 close human contacts (3.5%) tested positive via serology (microneutralization) for the virus 4 weeks later.

• In 2018 we saw evidence suggesting several employers had been infected by LPAI H7N2 during an outbreak in 2016 (see J Infect Dis: Serological Evidence Of H7N2 Infection Among Animal Shelter Workers, NYC 2016).

In April of 2024, less than a month after the first detection of H5N1 in cattle, the CDC released Guidance for Veterinarians: Evaluating & Handling Cats Potentially Exposed to HPAI H5NI.  

After our summer lull, we are seeing an uptick in North American avian flu outbreaks in poultry, which typically increases when southbound migratory birds return from their high-latitude roosting areas.  

That suggests that the risks of domestic cats being infected are likely rising, and with that come exposure risks to their owners, veterinarians, and animal rescue staff.

Last week the AVMA (American Veterinary Medical Association) Journal published an updated - albeit, unofficial - best practices article penned by researchers at the CDC. 

Although this is a public domain article (produced by U.S. government employees) I've only posted extended excerpts.  Follow the link to read it in its entirety.  

I'll have a bit more after the break. 

How can veterinary personnel recognize and protect themselves from domestic cats infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses?

 

Lizette O. Durand, VMD, PhD1* ; Sonja J. Olsen, PhD1 ; Natalie M. Wendling, DVM, MPH2 ; Timothy M. Uyeki, MD, MPH, MPP1 ; Grazia Mirabito, PhD1 ; Tom T. Shimabukuro, MD, MPH, MBA1 ; Colin A. Basler, DVM, MPH2 

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses circulate globally in wild birds, causing poultry outbreaks and spillover infections in mammals and sporadic human infections. Recent detections in domestic cats highlight occupational risks for veterinarians handling cats in areas where A(H5N1) virus is circulating. Although the potential risk for cat-to-human A(H5N1) virus-transmission is currently low, vigilance is warranted. Veterinarians can use published recommendations to evaluate exposure risks, implement infection control practices, use recommended personal protective equipment, train staff, and coordinate with health officials. The One Health approach can help reduce risks of A(H5N1) virus infection to veterinary staff, cat owners, and other animals.
Keywords: avian influenza; cats; PPE; One Health; H5N1

Viewpoint articles represent the opinions of the authors and do not represent AVMA endorsement of such statements.

Introduction

(SNIP)

Between March 2024 and March 2026, A(H5N1) viruses were detected in 137 domestic cats in the US.5 While detailed information is not available on all affected cats, they represent owned indoor only cats, owned indoor/outdoor cats, and feral domestic cats (including barn cats).

Detections were associated with exposure to sick or A(H5N1) virus–infected dairy cattle or contaminated fomites from dairy farms, contact with wild birds, eating raw meat, commercially produced raw pet food products and/or consuming raw milk contaminated with A(H5N1).6–10

Reported clinical signs of A(H5N1) illness in cats have included nonspecific signs, such as fever, lethargy, and loss of appetite; respiratory signs, including coughing, sneezing, labored breathing, nasal and ocular discharge; and neurologic manifestations, including abnormal gait, circling, tremors, seizures, and blindness.11 In documented fatal feline cases, cats deteriorated quickly, progressing from onset of clinical signs to death in a few days.9

During the same 2-year period, 71 human cases of influenza A(H5Nx) virus infection were confirmed in the US. Most cases occurred in people with occupational exposure to A(H5N1) virus-infected animals, including 41 in dairy farm workers and 24 in poultry depopulation workers. Three human cases were linked to backyard flocks and 3 had unknown exposures.12,13

While transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N2) virus from domestic cats to humans has been documented,14–16 there have been no virologically confirmed human cases of A(H5N1) in the US transmitted from an infected cat. However, the recent report from Los Angeles County, California, provides serologic evidence of possible transmission of A(H5N1) virus from an infected cat to a veterinary professional who remained asymptomatic17. This newly identified possible source of A(H5N1) virus transmission from cats to humans is particularly relevant for veterinarians.

Although the overall risk of human A(H5N1) virus infection from cats or other companion animals is low, it is important for veterinarians to recognize and protect themselves and their staff from A(H5N1) virus transmission. When there is clinical suspicion for A(H5N1) virus infection in cats or other companion animals, a four-step One Health approach19 is available to protect veterinary personnel, pet owners, and other animals. 

Four-Step One Health Approach

Recognize cases

In most cases, domestic cats with A(H5N1) virus infection have presented with respiratory (eg, nasal discharge, tachypnea or breathing quickly, dyspnea or trouble breathing, sneezing, or coughing) or neurologic signs (eg, ataxia, circling, tremors, seizures, or blindness).4,9,17 Although other diseases, such as rabies, can present with respiratory and neurologic signs, in areas where A(H5N1) virus is circulating in animals,5 a detailed history can help narrow clinical suspicion for A(H5N1) virus infection. Before the appointment, clinic staff could consider conducting a prescreening interview to obtain a thorough exposure history.9,18 This history can include information about environmental exposures (eg, do owners work on a dairy farm or with domestic poultry, live on a farm, own a backyard flock) animal exposures (eg, unsupervised outdoor access, hunting wild birds or other animals, contact with farm animals), and dietary risk factors (consumption of raw meat, commercially produced raw pet food, or raw milk).

Protect clinic staff

If there is clinical suspicion for A(H5N1) in a sick cat, implementing infection prevention and control measures can help protect veterinary healthcare workers.18,20 These include, when possible, conducting exams in an isolation room to prevent contamination of other clinic areas and limiting the number of staff interacting with the cat. Personal protective equipment (PPE) use will depend on exposure level (high, medium, low). When interacting with or handling a potentially A(H5N1) virus–infected cat (high exposure), staff are advised to wear a National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health–approved particulate respirator (requires prior fit-testing), fluid resistant gowns (single-use disposable or reusable cloth gowns, or laboratory coats that are laundered after contact with the patient), eye protection, disposable gloves, shoe covers or dedicated footwear, and hair/head cover (Figure 1).18,20,21 It is recommended that clinical staff adhere to proper hand-washing protocols20–22 after touching a potentially infected cat, or contaminated equipment or surfaces18 and disinfect contaminated surfaces after use.20 Staff that do not have contact with potentially infected animals (low exposure) do not have to wear PPE.

Since there is limited information on the potential transmission of A(H5N1) viruses from cats to humans, it is suggested that sick cats be isolated from people and other animals until a negative real-time reverse transcription–PCR test result for influenza A(H5N1) is returned or until resolution of clinical signs.18 During this time, it is important for clinical staff to understand how to properly don and doff PPE, which may require refresher training.20,21

Contact public health and animal health officials

When there is clinical suspicion of A(H5N1) in a cat, veterinarians should contact their state or local public health officials or state public health veterinarian.18 While the decision to isolate a cat potentially infected with A(H5N1) virus at home or at a veterinary clinic should be made by the veterinarian and cat owner, local public health and animal health officials may have additional protocols for isolating, testing, and managing of A(H5N1) virus–infected animals as well as monitoring of exposed persons.

Guidance from the CDC recommends that all persons exposed to an animal infected with A(H5N1) viruses self-monitor their health for signs and symptoms of A(H5N1) virus infection up to 10 days after the last known exposure.23 They can contact their health-care provider and designated state or local public health official if they develop any clinical signs or symptoms (eg, acute respiratory illness and/or conjunctivitis)23 to discuss testing and treatment options for people exposed to confirmed A(H5N1) virus–infected animals. The CDC currently recommends antiviral treatment with oseltamivir for symptomatic persons who are confirmed, probable, or suspected cases of novel influenza A virus infection associated with severe human disease such as A(H5N1) virus infection.24 Oseltamivir for post-exposure prophylaxis using treatment dosing (twice daily for 5 days) as soon as possible can be considered for persons exposed to sick cats confirmed or suspected with A(H5N1) virus infection.25 Additionally, persons who are symptomatic should stay home and limit contact with others until the test results are known.23

Educate owners

Veterinarians may consider educating cat owners about the potential exposure risks for A(H5N1) viruses. Strategies such as keeping cats indoors and discouraging consumption of raw milk, raw meats, and commercially produced raw pet foods, can reduce risk.18 When A(H5N1) virus infection is suspected, veterinarians should consider providing information on safe handling of cats and suggest that owners contact their public health department for more information on self-monitoring of their symptoms.18

Implementing the One Health19 approach in veterinary clinics can protect both humans and animals. The CDC provides recommendations to protect veterinary staff managing cats exposed to A(H5N1) virus, emphasizing the importance of considering influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in the differential diagnosis, implementing infection prevention and control protocols, and using proper PPE by veterinarians and clinic staff.18 Given the potential transmission risk, veterinarians should remain cautious when interacting with cats potentially infected with A(H5N1) viruses.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Reid Harvey and Alice Shumate for their thoughtful discussions around worker safety within a veterinary practice.

Disclosures

The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the CDC.

 

Since its arrival in late 2021, the amount of HPAI H5 virus in the environment has sharply increased during the fall and winter, making now a good time to think about how you will protect your companion animals (dogs and cats) during the months ahead.

The CDC offers the following advice to pet owners on how they may keep their animals safe from avian flu, and what to do if they suspect infection.

While cat-to-human transmission of influenza viruses has only rarely been documented, HPAI H5 continues to exceed our expectations, and we should treat it as an evolving threat.  

About that Russian `Lab Leak' Story

#19,358

Over the past 72 hours there has been a media frenzy over a reported plague death, supposedly in a Russian laboratory worker, and the subsequent quarantining of roughly 200 contacts. 

While headlines have often been bombastic, official information has been sparse.  My attempts to access Russia's Rospotrebnadzor - their National Health Agency's website - even using a VPN, have been unsuccessful. 

Complicating matters, the Russian media has presented several conflicting stories.  Given the `tabloid' nature of many Russian news outlets - and the lack of official information - it is difficult to separate the fact from the fiction. 

The Moscow Times' - which is one of the more reliable sources for Russian news - reported on Friday: 

Nearly 200 People Under Observation After Irkutsk Lab Worker Dies From Plague

Citing `other news reports' and a statement on the social media platform VKontakte by Alexei Tsydenov, head of the neighboring republic of Buryatia - they reported:

`Health authorities in Siberia’s Irkutsk region have placed nearly 200 people under medical observation after a laboratory worker died from plague.'

According to exiled news outlet Lyudi Baikala (People of Baikal) and pro-Kremlin broadcaster REN TV, the lab worker was a 27 or 28 year-old female, who reported that she had accidentally broken a test tube containing live bacteria.  

They go on to say she was hospitalized on Tuesday with severe pneumonia, was placed on a ventilator, and died on Thursday.  

While this reads like the opening to a Michael Crichton novel, we've seen lab leaks and handling `mishaps' before (see here, here, here, here, and here), so it is plausible.  It would seem, however, that a number of important BSL biosecurity measures would have to be breached. 

A Latvian-based media outlet (https://meduza.io/) reported several alternate scenarios involving recent field trips where exposure might have occurred. 

Local governments have posted, then removed, warnings (see original and translation below) from social media sites. 

Perhaps most credible are reports of a high-level meeting between local and federal officials (including Anna Popova, Chief State Sanitary Physician of the Russian Federation). This (translated) post from Irkutsk regional governor Igor Kobzev was posted on Oct 2nd.

An extraordinary meeting of the regional sanitary and anti-epidemic commission was held with the participation of Anna Yuryevna Popova, Chief State Sanitary Doctor of the Russian Federation. The reason for the meeting was information about a suspected case of a particularly dangerous infection in a resident of the region.

In this regard, Rospotrebnadzor has organized and is implementing a full range of anti-epidemic measures. At the SPEC meeting, an operational action plan was approved and instructed to strictly implement all its sections and provisions.

I would like to inform you that all identified contacts have been placed under medical observation. Currently, these contacts show no signs of illness, and laboratory test results are negative.

The situation is under strict monitoring by Rospotrebnadzor and the Irkutsk Regional Government. I ask everyone to rely solely on official information.

My channel on MAX | VK | OK | Zen

t.me/kobzevii/17919

58.9K edited Oct 2 at 01:08

The best round-up of news reports, and analysis, I've found is from the BEACON biothreats surveillance platform, housed by Boston University Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases (CEID).

RFI: Fatal laboratory-acquired infection in Irkutsk Region, Russia; possible pneumonic plague; 197 contacts hospitalized for observation
Sat 03 Oct 2026

While I would hope we'll get more details soon, the willingness of many countries to share sensitive infectious disease information has eroded over the past few years (see No News Is . . . Now Commonplace).

Assuming this involves a `plain vanilla' Yersinia pestis - and treatment is begun promptly - it should respond to antibiotics.  We've seen outbreaks of pneumonic plague before in Madagascar,  Mongolia, and even the United States, and all were eventually brought under control. 

Plague can present in three forms: bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic. If untreated, bubonic plague can evolve to a more transmissible pneumonic plague.

• Bubonic Plague (Yersinia pestis) - carried by rats, squirrels, and other small rodents, and transmitted by fleas - sets up in the lymphatic system, resulting in the tell-tale buboes, or swollen lymph glands in the the groin, armpits, and neck.

• Less commonly pneumonic plague may develop, when the infected individual develops a severe pneumonia, with coughing and hemoptysis (expectoration of blood), which may spread the disease by droplets from human-to-human.

In 2019's CDC: The 8 Zoonotic Diseases Of Most Concern In The United States, we looked at a joint CDC, USDA, DOI report on the top (n=56) zoonotic diseases of national concern for the United States. 

While Zoonotic Influenzas (avian, swine, etc.) were at the top of the list, Plague ranked 4th, and novel coronaviruses (MERS, SARS, etc.) ranked 5th.

I confess to having a particular interest in Plague, which stems from my brief stint working as a paramedic in Phoenix, Arizona where plague cases are still occasionally found. 

I also read, around the age of 11 – James Leasor’s The Plague and The Fire -which recounts two incredible years in London’s history (1665-1666), which began with the Great plague, and ended with the Fire of London.

A fascinating read (if you can find a copy) for both history and epidemic aficionados.