USGS: Updated U.S. Seismic Risk Hazard Maps

 

# 8846

 

Yesterday the USGS released a 243 page PDF report outlining the revised seismic hazard risks for the United States – their first major update since 2008 – and among its findings it reports a higher risk of strong quakes in the Eastern United States than previously appreciated. 

 

Be warned, with hundreds of maps and graphics, this is a very large (113mb) download.

 

 

Documentation for the 2014 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

By Mark D. Petersen, Morgan P. Moschetti, Peter M. Powers, Charles S. Mueller, Kathleen M. Haller, Arthur D. Frankel, Yuehua Zeng, Sanaz Rezaeian, Stephen C. Harmsen, Oliver S. Boyd, Ned Field, Rui Chen, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Nico Luco, Russell L. Wheeler, Robert A. Williams, and Anna H. Olsen

Abstract

The national seismic hazard maps for the conterminous United States have been updated to account for new methods, models, and data that have been obtained since the 2008 maps were released (Petersen and others, 2008). The input models are improved from those implemented in 2008 by using new ground motion models that have incorporated about twice as many earthquake strong ground shaking data and by incorporating many additional scientific studies that indicate broader ranges of earthquake source and ground motion models. These time-independent maps are shown for 2-percent and 10-percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for peak horizontal ground acceleration as well as 5-hertz and 1-hertz spectral accelerations with 5-percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition (760 meters per second shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m, V_S30). In this report, the 2014 updated maps are compared with the 2008 version of the maps and indicate changes of plus or minus 20 percent over wide areas, with larger changes locally, caused by the modifications to the seismic source and ground motion inputs.

 

 

Although earthquakes in the Eastern half of the United States have been recorded in the past (including the Charleston, SC earthquake of 1886), the August 2011 5.8 earthquake that rocked Virginia and the Nation’s capital (see USGS Statement On The Virginia Earthquake) provided fresh evidence not only of their potential to occur,  but also how widely felt they may be (see USGS: Eastern Earthquakes - Rare But Powerful).

 

Another strong quake a few months later in the Heartland (see 5.6 Mag Quake Rattles Oklahoma), has been followed by hundreds of additional quakes in a region not expected to produce that much seismic activity. 

 

Additional earthquake research has turned up new fault lines in California, and perhaps most worrisome of all, found the potential for a much larger quake from the Cascadia Fault in the Pacific Northwest than previously estimated (see Just A Matter Of Time for more on this threat)

While all 50 states have at least some seismic potential (yes, even Florida), 42 states are viewed as having a reasonable chance of seeing a damaging quake in the next 50 years, and 16 states in particular are considered at highest risk.  The USGS press release states:

 

The hazard is especially high along the west coast, intermountain west, and in several active regions of the central and eastern U.S., such as near New Madrid, MO, and near Charleston, SC. The 16 states at highest risk are Alaska, Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

 

While they acknowledge the risks of man-made earthquakes – due primarily to fracking and injection wells – research into these hazards is just getting started.  The USGS states:

 

Induced Earthquakes … Research Underway

Some states have experienced increased seismicity in the past few years that may be associated with human activities such as the disposal of wastewater in deep wells.

One specific focus for the future is including an additional layer to these earthquake hazard maps to account for recent potentially triggered earthquakes that occur near some wastewater disposal wells. Injection-induced earthquakes are challenging to incorporate into hazard models because they may not behave like natural earthquakes and their rates change based on man-made activities.

 

While it may not be predictive of future events, so far 2014 has provided a major uptick in seismic activity in the United States, and around the globe.  Southern California, Alaska, and California have all reported increased activity (see LA Times Quakes are increasing, but scientists aren't sure what it means).

 

Last December, in Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’, we looked at a presentation given by Dr. Jones at the  annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (held this year in San Francisco),  that emphasized that should the `big one’ hit Southern California, we could literally `lose’ Los Angeles.

 

She warned that the damage could be far greater, and last much longer, than most people believe.  While 99 out of 100 modern buildings might remain standing, the (often buried) infrastructure needed to provide water, electricity, internet connectivity, and natural gas – the lifeblood -  to the region could be devastated (see CBS News report).

 

If this sounds like hyperbole, in 2010 (see Revised Risk Of `The Big One’ Along San Andreas Fault) we looked at a study that suggested that Southern California may be more overdue for another major quake than previously thought, and in the following year (see Estimating The Economic Impact Of A San Andreas Quake) we looked at a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that endeavored to gauge the crippling impact that a highly feasible (and long overdue) 7.8 magnitude Southern California earthquake would have on jobs and local businesses.

Download PDF file

A quake of this magnitude, they estimate, could affect  430,000 businesses and 4.5 million workers and deliver a devastating – and prolonged – blow to the local (and national) economy.

 

While attempts at predicting earthquakes have met with little success, we do know that over time, seismically active regions will be hit again and again, and that the only defense is to be prepared for when that happens.

 

Seismic threats extend beyond earthquakes, as they encompass volcanic eruptions (see Washington State: Volcano Awareness Month) - and Tsunamis – both of which have the ability to affect both people and property thousands of miles away from the originating event  (see The USGS West Coast Tsunami Scenario Report & East Coast Tsunami Threats).

 

Which is why everyone should have a disaster plan, not just those who live in an earthquake zone.

 

As a bare minimum, everyone should have a well thought out disaster and family communications plan, along with a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last at least 72 hours.

 

In When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough, I highlighted  a colorful, easy-to-follow, 100 page `survival guide’ released by Los Angeles County, that covers everything from earthquake and tsunami preparedness, to getting ready for a pandemic.

The guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

While designed specifically for the nearly 10 million residents of Los Angeles County, this guide would be a valuable asset for anyone interested in preparing for a variety of hazards. And in Los Angeles, the advice is to have emergency supplies (food, water, etc) to last up to 10 days. In my humble opinion, 2-weeks in an earthquake zone isn’t overkill.

 

Working to improve earthquake awareness, preparation, and safety is Shakeout.org, which promotes yearly earthquake drills and education around the country (see NPM13: A Whole Lotta Shakeouts Going On).  If you live in one of these seismically active areas, I would encourage you to take part in these yearly drills.

To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with all types of disasters, I would invite you to visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And lastly, in NPM13: The Greatest Prep Of All,  I wrote about what I consider to be the most important preparedness step you can take – having, and being,  a disaster buddy.  Cultivating a network of family and friends to whom you can turn for help in a disaster, to who can turn to you for aid,  if they need it.

 

Because no matter where you live, its just a matter of time before the next disaster strikes.

Three Graphic Posts From Mackay

Credit VDU Blog

# 8821

 

I’ve been remiss in not mentioning that Professor Ian Mackay is back after taking a short break, with several new posts utilizing some impressive presentation software to create interactive maps on Ebola and MERS.

Follow the links below to view:

 

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) cases, clusters and outbreaks mapped out...

Mucking about with MERS and maps...

MERS-CoV in June/July...

ECDC: GIS Timeline Of H7N9 Cases In China

ECDC GIS For Disease Prevention

 

# 8335

 

GIS or Geographic Information Systems, are a powerful way to look at emerging disease information, and the ECDC has certainly embraced the technology.  Below you’ll find some snapshots from a terrific interactive timeline map showing the spread of the H7N9 virus over the past year. 

 

Follow THIS LINK to view/manipulate this handy frequently updated resource.

 

 

 

This first view shows the opening week of the outbreak, with cases (eventually) reported from four provinces.

 

By mid-summer the first wave had ended, with roughly 130 cases reported.

 

New cases began to appear in October of 2013.  Here is the geographic spread as of the end of 2013.

 

And lastly, a view of the major uptick of reported cases in the first 7 weeks of 2014, including the exportation of a case to Malaysia.

 

Nature: Mapping The Spread & Risk Of H7N9 In China

 

 

# 7822

 

With H5N1 still in the wings, and the upstart H7N9 and MERS coronavirus making menacing overtures, infectious disease watchers and public health authorities have their hands full right now, just trying to keep track.  This week we’ve seen the CDC issue new guidance on MERS-CoV along with an IHR Emergency Committee meeting, and warnings from the Chinese government to remain alert for the H7N9 avian flu virus.

Despite these warnings and preparations, no one knows if any of these viruses will pose a serious public health risk this fall and winter.  Officials just know they could.  And while we watch this trio of emerging diseases, we could easily get blind-sided by something else.  

As Yogi Berra famously said - Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.

 

But hard or not, scientists are working to model and predict the spread of these diseases in order to help guide surveillance and containment efforts.  Which brings us to an open-access report, published this week in Nature’s Scientific Reports, that attempts to map and predict future outbreaks of H7N9 in China.

 

These researchers, from China and from the University of Florida, found that human cases last spring tended to occur near irrigated land, suggesting that ducks and geese may play a role in its transmission, even though the virus has not been isolated in either species. 

A bit surprisingly, they also found - `high humidity and an atmospheric temperature around 15°C were predictive factors for the risk of avian influenza A’.

This runs counter to other studies on influenza viruses that show moderately low relative Humidity (< 40%) as being more conducive to viral survival and transmission (see PLoS One: High Humidity Reduces Flu’s Infectivity & NIH Study: Climate & Influenza Transmission).

.

Although the methods section of this study will likely be tough sledding for those without a background in statistics, the Introduction and Discussion are both particularly well written, and well worth reading in their entirety.

 

Scientific Reports | Article Open

Mapping Spread and Risk of Avian Influenza A (H7N9) in China

Li-Qun Fang, Xin-Lou Li, Kun Liu, Yin-Jun Li, Hong-Wu Yao, Song Liang, Yang Yang, Zi-Jian Feng, Gregory C. Gray & Wu-Chun Cao

doi:10.1038/srep02722

Published  26 September 2013

The outbreak of human infections with an emerging avian influenza A (H7N9) virus occurred in China in early 2013. It remains unknown what and how the underlying risk factors were involved in the bird-to-human cross-species transmission. To illustrate the dynamics of viral spread, we created a thematic map displaying the distribution of affected counties and plotted epidemic curves for the three most affected provinces and the whole country. We then collected data of agro-ecological, environmental and meteorological factors at the county level, and used boosted regression tree (BRT) models to examine the relative contribution of each factor and map the probability of occurrence of human H7N9 infection. We found that live poultry markets, human population density, irrigated croplands, built-up land, relative humidity and temperature significantly contributed to the occurrence of human infection with H7N9 virus. The discriminatory ability of the model was up to 97.4%. A map showing the areas with high risk for human H7N9 infection was created based on the model. These findings could be used to inform targeted surveillance and control efforts in both human and animal populations to reduce the risk of future human infections.

 

First, from the Introduction (and reparagraphed for readability), a concise summary of where things stand right now with the H7N9 virus:

 

A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus infecting humans has emerged in mainland China¹, causing global concerns about its potential to start an influenza pandemic^{2, 3}. Since the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China (NHFPC) announced the emerging infectious disease on March 31, 2013, a total of 131 confirmed cases, with 39 deaths have been reported in eight provinces and two municipalities as of May 30⁴. Fortunately, thus far there has been no evidence of sustained person-to-person transmission⁵.

 

However, unlike the high pathogenic avian influenza A viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7, in which outbreaks in poultry precede human infections and imply where the public health threat lies^{6, 7}, the novel H7N9 virus causes no or only mild disease in birds^{8, 9}. This means that the virus is likely to spread silently in birds or other animal reservoirs. Human infections are therefore the sentinel events, and the quick geographical expansion of human cases indicate that a hidden epidemic in birds is well underway³, and many parts of the country offers a favorable breeding ground for the virus to circulate.

 

So far, however, apart from birds and the contaminated environments at the live poultry markets^{9, 10}, the sources of infection remain elusive¹¹. It is unclear how the emerging avian influenza A (H7N9) virus is spreading in China³, and what and how the underlying risk factors are involved in the cross-species transmission.

 

From the discussion section, a brief excerpt (but follow the link to read it in its entirety).

 

The outbreak of human infections with the novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus lasted for over three months since it emerged in mainland China. Fortunately, thus far there has been no sustained human-to-human transmission⁵, although the virus has genetic characteristics that suggest it could effectively replicate in mammals^{1, 15}. Currently, H7N9 virus infection is primarily zoonotic. In this study, we used GIS-based spatial analysis to map the spatial distribution of human infections with H7N9 virus. The thematic map displaying the distribution of human cases indicates that although most human cases were concentrated at the Yangtze River delta on China's eastern seaboard, sporadic cases were distributed in large areas of adjacent provinces, even spreading northward to Beijing and being exported to Taiwan (Fig. 1).

 

As a final note, last March – and published before we learned of the outbreak of H7N9 in China – the CDC’s EID Journal carried a study (see Predicting Hotspots for Influenza Virus Reassortment) that attempted to map those areas of the world most likely to spawn new influenza strains.  

 

This study identified a number of key geographic locations  -  the northern plains of India, the coastal and central provinces of China, the western Korean Peninsula and southwestern Japan in Asia, and the Nile Delta in Egypt - as likely hotspots. 

 

Their H5N1 risk map of China (see below), matches pretty closely to the H7N9 risk map in today’s study.

 

Of course, the last pandemic reassortment originated in the Americas, and no one is quite sure where the devastating 1918 `Spanish’ flu evolved.  While scientists can find and predict patterns, Nature often goes its own way. 

 

But models like these – while far from fully predictive – can help guide us as to where we should be looking for the next novel flu outbreak.

 

And with two dangerous avian flu strains in Asia and an emerging coronavirus in the Middle East, we can use all the help we can get.

CDDEP: Mapping Resistance

 

 

# 5858

 

 

CDDEP (The Center For Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy) –  a non-profit organization with offices in Washington D.C. and New Delhi, India – today unveiled their new, updated, and enhanced interactive tool for visualizing the spread of antibiotic resistance around the globe.

 

Dubbed the ResistanceMap, it allows the operator to interactively access more than 50 antimicrobial surveillance indicators from North America and Europe.

 

As with the Dengue Watch Map, The Global Wildlife Disease Map, HEWS, and HealthMap this tool provides easy access on important disease information to everyone, including the general public.

 

 

This from today’s Press release:

September 21, 2011
MEDIA CONTACT:
Kathy Fackelmann, Burness Communications

United States Falling Behind In Efforts to Control Superbug Threat

Online Web Tool ResistanceMap shows latest regional and global trends in antibiotic resistance

Washington, D.C.--The United States lags behind many Western European nations in controlling the spread of certain drug-resistant microbes or “superbugs,” according to ResistanceMap, an interactive web-based tool that tracks drug resistance in North America and Europe.

 

The latest iteration of ResistanceMap was launched today by Extending the Cure, a Washington, D.C.-based research project that studies the growing problem of antibiotic resistance. The maps offer a comprehensive way to visualize global antibiotic resistance trends and identify top-performing countries and U.S. regions as well as those where antibiotic resistant infections are severe. Such infections can result in long hospital stays and high treatment costs — if they can be treated at all.
The global maps show that despite significant gains in limiting the spread of hospital acquired Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), the United States still has one of the highest MRSA rates in the Northern Hemisphere—putting it far behind other developed European countries. Nearly 52 percent of reported Staph samples in the United States are resistant to treatment with methicillin, penicillin and closely related antibiotics, compared to just 1 percent in Sweden.

“With this tool, public health officials, researchers, and others can see the progression of antibiotic resistance in the United States and worldwide,” said Ramanan Laxminarayan, Ph.D., director of Extending the Cure. “By mapping the geography of resistance, we can better identify regions at risk for outbreaks,” he said. “In addition, this map allows us to look for solutions and pinpoint regions of the world where infection control practices have been particularly successful.”

(Continue . . . )

 

 

In addition to the updated maps, you’ll also find background information on the different types of antibiotic resistant bacteria and analyses of recent trends.

 

While just about everyone has heard of MRSA, the field of antibiotic resistant pathogens grows larger every year. As this report points out:

 

Two of the most common disease-causing bacteria -- Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae -- are rapidly gaining resistance to common antibiotics such as ciprofloxacin, or cipro.

 

Some of my earlier blogs on some of the less well known pathogens include:

 

NDM-1: One Year Later

Netherlands: Large Nosocomial KPC Outbreak

ECDC/EMEA: Joint Report On Resistant Bacteria

Carbapenemases Rising

 

Future plans at the CDDEP site include the addition of maps that will depict antibiotic usage by country.

 

 

While I touch on antibiotic resistance issues from time to time, Maryn McKenna is Flublogia’s go-to person for all things antimicrobial. While her SUPERBUG Blog  covers an eclectic range of subjects, its primary focus has always been on antibiotic use, misuse, and resistance.

 

Her book SUPERBUG: The Fatal Menace of MRSA serves as a badly needed wakeup call on the rising tide of resistant organisms (not just MRSA).

 

Her book, quite deservedly, won this year’s  NASW Science in Society Journalism Award.

 

Highly recommended.

The Wide World Of Reports

 

 

# 5497

 

 

It’s a busy world out there, with literally scores of disease outbreaks, disasters, and other significant events taking place every week.

 

Keeping track, and detecting trends, can be a full time job.

 

Luckily we’ve several handy disaster, crisis, and disease mapping websites that do a remarkable job in this regard. 

 

Today, a brief review of four of them.

 

For versatility, and volume of reports, it’s hard to beat Healthmap.org’s  Healthmap.  

 

You can easily define the parameters to display, including disease types, locations, and information sources.  You can view the world in either map or satellite view, and of course you can drill down and examine individual reports.

 

You’ll also find quick views of recent outbreaks or crises.  Right now Japan, Antibiotic resistance, and Cholera in Haiti, and Measles are featured.

 

Healthmap began in 2006, and is fully interactive.  I first wrote about HealthMap in July of 2008 (see HealthMap On The Web)

 

 

A relative newcomer that I profiled last February is the PREDICT MAP, an offshoot from the Healthmap (above), that focuses on zoonotic outbreaks of disease around the globe

 

 

A screen shot of the PREDICT map shows global areas  currently of concern.

 

 

From the PREDICT Home page of the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, we get this description.

PREDICT: Building a global early warning system for emerging diseases that move between wildlife and people.

In order to predict, respond to, and prevent the emergence of novel infectious diseases in humans, pathogens must be identified at their source. Explosive human population growth and environmental changes have resulted in increased numbers of people living in close contact with animals. Unfortunately the resulting increase in contact, together with changes in land use, has altered the inherent ecological balance between pathogens and their human and animal hosts.

 

 

A relatively new entry is the HEWS (Humanitarian Early Warning Service) developed by the United Nation’s WFP World Food Programme.  The focus here are on disasters that can affect food security, including floods, storms, locusts, volcanoes, and earthquakes.

 

 

And lastly, a disease specific map that I visit often. Dengue Watch tracks this rapidly spreading arbovirus around the world.

 

 

 

I hit each one of these maps at least once a day, trolling for stories for this blog, or simply to keep up-to-date on events around the world.

 

Since many of these reports are culled from newspaper and media reports, and those sometimes are less than completely accurate, maintaining a level of Caveat Lector is recommended.

 

But if taken with that understanding, these maps can be extremely useful and illuminating tools.

 

And let’s face it.  Getting real time updates from all around the world is pretty cool.

The Tohoku Earthquake And Its Aftershocks

 

 

# 5409

 

The massive 9.0 earthquake that struck off the eastern coast of Honshu Island last Friday now has an official name bestowed upon it by the USGS; The Tohoku Earthquake.

 

Tohoku is an abbreviated version of Tohoku-Chiho Taiheiyo-Oki – a Japanese descriptive phrase that translates roughly as: "Pacific offshore Tohoku region”.

 

The Los Angeles Times has more on this:

 

USGS dubs Japan Earthquake  'Tohoku'

 

Of course, the March 11th Tohoku quake wasn’t a single event.  It was heralded by a strong 7.2 magnitude quake on the 9th, and has been followed by scores of strong aftershocks that continue to rattle the region.

 

The United Nations World Food Programme has released a new map showing the location and relative sizes of significant quakes that have occurred in this region between March 9th and March 15th.

 

The following may be accessed via Reliefweb.

 

 

Japan: Earthquakes Swarm (15 Mar 2011)

• Date: 15 Mar 2011
• Type: Natural Disaster
• Keyword(s): Earthquake; Natural Disaster; Tsunami; Technological Disaster
• Format:

  PDF *, 1967 Kb

Scientists continue to warn that one or more 7.0+ aftershocks may still occur in the days and weeks to come.

 

Not only are these quakes capable of causing additional damage, and can endanger rescuers and others still in the region, they inflict a heavy psychological toll as well.   

 

When a quake begins, those in the affected area have no way of knowing how big it is going to end up being.  And a dozen or more strong aftershocks have affected the region every day since Friday.

 

For millions of people already heavily traumatized by the events of the past week, these aftershocks are a constant reminder of how vulnerable to additional earthquake damage they remain.

Haiti: Updated Cholera Outbreak Map

 

 

 

# 5090

 

 

A week ago I posted a map prepared by OCHA showing the extent of the Haitian cholera outbreak as of November 17th, 2010.

 

At the time, there were close to 19,000 confirmed cases and more than 1,100 deaths.

 

Today, OCHA and ReliefWeb have published a new map, updated through November 23rd.  They now list 25,000 hospitalized, and more than 1,400 fatalities.

 

Follow the links to view the full sized maps.

 

 

HAITI: Cholera Outbreak (as of 23 Nov 2010) - Location Map

 

 

• Date: 25 Nov 2010
• Type: Natural Disaster
• Keyword(s): Epidemic; Health; Affected Population
• Format(s):

  PDF *, 163 Kb

  
  JPG, 71 Kb

Source(s):
- United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - ReliefWeb
- United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Related Document:
- Haiti: Cholera Situation Report #20 - 23 November 2010
- Haiti: Cholera Outbreak in Haiti, 2010

Cholera Outbreak Map Of Haiti

 

 

# 5069

 

 

Although Crofsblog  is doing most of the heavy lifting when it comes to blogging about the cholera outbreak in Haiti (and if you aren’t following him, why not?) – I ran across this map published by ReliefWeb today, and thought it would help put things in better perspective.

 

Follow the links to download larger versions of this graphic.

 

 

HAITI: Cholera Outbreak (as of 17 Nov 2010) - Location Map

• Date: 18 Nov 2010
• Type: Natural Disaster
• Keyword(s): Epidemic; Health; Affected Population
• Format(s):

  PDF *, 164 Kb

  
  JPG, 70 Kb
  (*)Get Adobe Acrobat Viewer (free)

 

• Source(s):
  - United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - ReliefWeb
  - United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
• Related Document:
  - PAHO EOC Situation Report #14 - Cholera Outbreak in Haiti