Grady Norton: The First Hurricane Forecaster

 

Note: Today is day five of National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and the focus today is on forecasting.

 

A couple of years ago I took a look at the life of legendary hurricane forecaster Grady Norton, and at how hurricane forecasting technology has changed over the past 50 years.

 

Today, a (slightly updated) repeat of that column for those who missed it.

 

 

# 7340

 

For those of a certain age who can remember growing up along the Gulf or Atlantic coasts in the 1950’s - before the advent of weather satellites - the technology we have at hand today is truly remarkable.

 

Our satellites today can probe deep into storm clouds and detect wind speeds, water vapor, precipitation, and heat energy of storm systems a thousand miles from the nearest weather observation post.

 

Three different views from space, taken May 26th, 2011 1345Z – NOAA

 

Weather forecasting began a new age when on April 1st 1960,  Tiros I - the world's first weather satellite - was launched into Earth orbit from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

 

For the first time, we had a `god's eye view' of earth. Regions of our globe where once cartographers could only inscribe "Here there be Dragons' could be watched 24 hours a day.

 

Our view of our world changed, practically overnight.

 

It was a wondrous day for everyone, except possibly for members of the Flat Earth Society. Below is the first television picture from earth orbit.

 

I was six years old, and I remember it like it was yesterday.

 

 

Sure the pictures were grainy, and the resolution laughable by today's standards, but for the first time we could watch from aloft and observe how and where hurricanes formed.

 

It meant we were no longer solely dependent on ship's reports and Hurricane Hunter aircraft to know if disaster lay just beyond the horizon.

It meant more than 12 hours warning to prepare for a storm.

 

TIROS 1 could take and transmit about 1 picture an hour, and only during daylight hours. Infrared capability – which allowed 24 hour coverage - was added to later `birds'.

 

Today, our reconnaissance satellites can take 40 pictures an hour, and see right through the clouds and measure rainfall, winds and even sea water temperatures. As a result, hurricane forecasting has improved tremendously over the past 50 years.

 

For those with an interest in how it was done before the advent of weather satellites and supercomputers, I’ve a bit of a treat today.

 

A profile of the first great hurricane forecaster – Grady Norton.

 

First, during the 1950’s there was a little remembered TV series called The Man Behind The Badge.  Hosted by Charles Bickford, the show profiled public servants who had made important contributions to public safety.

 

In 1955 a dramatized tribute to legendary hurricane forecaster Grady Norton was broadcast.  Grady had passed away suddenly of a stroke just a few months before while tracking Hurricane Hazel.

 

 

October 10th, 1954 Daytona News-Journal Article.

 

This 30 minute show stars Milburn Stone (of Gunsmoke Fame), and is hosted by a nostalgia TV site called LIKE Television.   It’s a fictionalized story, but I think you’ll find it well worth viewing.

 

Click the image below to view the show.

I

 

Norton became the Chief Hurricane Forecaster at the Jacksonville Weather Bureau Hurricane center in 1935 and famously forecast the track of the 200+ MPH Labor Day storm that year, providing 12 critical hours of warning to the Keys and South Florida.

 

 

In 1943 the Hurricane forecasting office moved to Miami, as a joint effort of the National Weather Service, Air Force, and Navy.  Norton remained their Chief forecaster and most public spokesperson until his death in 1954.

 

It wasn’t until the mid-1960s that the NHC as we know it today was established as its own entity, separate from the National Weather Service.

 

While  the first director of the National Hurricane Center is listed as Gordon Dunn (1965–1967), Grady Norton is widely regarded as that agency’s first `unofficial’ director.

 

When meteorologists talk about Grady Norton today, they do so with considerable wonder and awe. His uncanny ability to track storms based on little more than ships reports was the stuff of legend.

 

While primitive by today’s standards, the work done by Grady Norton and other pioneers of meteorology during the first half of the last century deserves mention and remembrance.

 

Despite the limited technology of the day, they undoubtedly saved a lot of lives.

 

For a look at how forecasting is done today, you can watch the following short video from the National Hurricane Center.

 

Tomorrow, day six of hurricane preparedness week, we’ll be looking at planning for the storm’s arrival. If you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, now would be an excellent time to do so.

NWS: Possible Coastal Storm Mid-Week

 

Source CDC

 

 

# 6694

 

As I mentioned on Thursday (see A Worrisome Mid-Week Forecast), computer models are increasingly indicating a coastal storm/Nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic & New England states later this week.

 

Not only will this increase the misery factor for residents and rescue workers dealing with the aftermath of Sandy, for those without power or heat temperatures and wind chills may drop dangerously low.

 

This is the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the New York NWS, issued early this morning:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD PLAN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

THOSE WITHOUT POWER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...RAIN/WINTRY PRECIPITATION...COASTAL FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

 

The 7 day forecast for Newark, NJ gives a pretty good idea of the expected progression of the weather.

 

The concern here isn’t just for the cold, for every year we get tragic reports of people who either started a house fire, or succumbed to Carbon Monoxide poisoning, while trying to heat their homes during a power outage.

 

The sources of CO are numerous; faulty furnaces, snow blocked car exhaust pipes, attempts to use generators inside the house or garage . . . and the use of CO producing emergency heat sources all contribute to the winter body count.

 

The CDC’s MMWR released a report in 2005 called Unintentional Non--Fire-Related Carbon Monoxide Exposures --- United States, 2001—2003 that stated:

 

During 2001--2003, an estimated 15,200 persons with confirmed or possible non--fire-related CO exposure were treated annually in hospital EDs. In addition, during 2001--2002, an average of 480 persons died annually from non--fire-related CO poisoning. Although males and females were equally likely to visit an ED for CO exposure, males were 2.3 times more likely to die from CO poisoning. Most (64%) of the nonfatal CO exposures occurred in homes. Efforts are needed to educate the public about preventing CO exposure.

 

The CDC maintains a webpage on Carbon Monoxide, which you can access here, and has this short video on what they call the `quiet killer’.

 

 

Unreasonable Expectations

  

Breezy Point and Rockaway, NY - Credit FEMA

 

# 6692

 

A couple of headlines from the local/regional section of the New York Times tell the tale.

 

Hardship Strains Emotions in New York

By JAMES BARRON and KEN BELSON

The region approached a breaking point on Friday as the collective spirit that prevailed in the first few days after Hurricane Sandy gave way to angry complaints of neglect and unequal treatment.

Anger Grows at Response by Red Cross

By DAVID M. HALBFINGER

The American Red Cross struggled on Friday to reassure beleaguered New York City residents that its disaster-relief efforts were at last getting up to speed.

 

 

These are difficult times for many victims of Sandy, and millions are cold, hungry, and miserable. With a winter storm forecast for the middle of next week and millions still without power, patience is understandably in short supply.  

 

Despite years of warnings, I’m sure many never really believed this could happen in New York City.

 

But it can, and it will again.  If not in New York, in another major American city. it’s really only a matter of time.

 

For years the American Red Cross, FEMA, Ready.gov, and just about everyone else in emergency services has urged that individuals and families be prepared to deal for at least 72 hours after a major disaster. 

 

The operative words being, `at least’.  And with good reason. 

 

The logistics of delivering emergency assistance to millions of people - while hampered by bad weather, crippled communications, damaged infrastructure, and stressed supply chains - all within the first three days of a major disaster, are daunting, and in some cases impossible.

 

With hurricanes and storms, agencies usually know several days in advance and are able to  pre-position equipment, personnel, and supplies.

 

Some disasters, like earthquakes, come without warning. And so response times may be even longer.

 

Federal officials know that it would be better if every individual and family had 5 days - or even a week’s worth - of food & water and other essentials in their home.  

 

But so few follow the advice to prepare for 72 hours, asking for more is thought to be unlikely to do much good.

 

Since I’m not on the ground in New York or New Jersey, I can’t speak to the criticisms being lodged against relief workers there.  Some of these complaints may be valid.

 

I suspect some stem from the public’s unreasonable expectations of what can actually be done in the hours and days immediately following a disaster.

 

Having worked in emergency services, I’m confident that the vast majority of responders are doing the best they can, under extraordinarily stressful circumstances, with the resources they have available.

 

Many of these relief worker’s homes and families have been impacted by this storm, and yet they are devoting their time and energy to helping others. 

 

It’s their job, I’m sure some will argue.  And that’s true.  But many of these people are volunteers.

 

The lesson here is that large scale disasters are messy, complicated affairs. The government possesses no magic wand that can erase the damage and eliminate the suffering overnight.

 

To expect that to happen, and to expect it will all to go flawlessly in a chaotic environment, is more than just unreasonable. It’s a fantasy.  Some problems can’t be fixed immediately, no matter how much money, and how many resources, you throw at it.

 

 
Knowing that, and knowing – despite the best efforts of the combined agencies responding – that it may be 3, 5, or even 7 days before emergency aid can get fully deployed, the best option is to be ready to deal with the first week after a disaster.

 

Last year in When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough, I highlighted  a colorful, easy-to-follow, 100 page `survival guide’ released by Los Angeles County, that covers everything from earthquake and tsunami preparedness, to getting ready for a pandemic.

 

The guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

While designed specifically for the nearly 10 million residents of Los Angeles County, this guide would be a valuable asset for anyone interested in preparing for a variety of hazards.

 

And in Los Angeles, the advice is to have emergency supplies (food, water, etc) to last up to 10 days. In my humble opinion, 2-weeks in an earthquake zone isn’t overkill.

 

And I can’t overstress the importance of having, and being, a Disaster Buddy.

 

True, help will begin to arrive within 48 to 72 hours of most disasters, but as we saw with Hurricane Katrina, and now Sandy, relief efforts can take time. Having extra supplies means you are in a better position to offer help to a friend, a neighbor, a relative, or your community.

 

And in the wake of a major disaster, you’ll find there are better things to be doing with your time than queuing up for hours waiting for water and food distributions.

 

While the standard advice to prepare for 3 days is a good start, if you are capable of doing more (and not everyone is), you really should.

 

During a crisis, relief agencies will have their hands full trying to help those who were unable to prepare, or who lost their preps due to the disaster.

 

By being better prepared, you take some of the burden off relief agencies, which will allow them to concentrate their efforts on helping those less able to help themselves.

 

And by being prepared, you are in a better position to help others.

 

And that’s a win-win situation.

 

For you, your family, and your community.

Shaken, And Hopefully Stirred

Location of last weekend’s Earthquake - USGS

 

# 6691

 

The 7.7 quake last weekend (see Haida Gwaii Quake & Tsunami Advisories) off the northern coast of British Columbia was a not-so-gentle reminder that the Pacific Northwest is not immune to strong earthquakes.

 

While the San Andreas fault in Southern California is better known, the Cascadia fault that runs along the Northern California, Oregon, Washington, and B.C. coast (well south of last week’s quake) is believed capable of generating a massive earthquake/tsunami combination, much like we saw with Japan’s Great Earthquake of 2011.

 

Based primarily on the fact that it’s happened before.

 

Last year, in Just A Matter Of Time, I described how records showed that 312 years ago an orphan tsunami struck the coast of Japan, without an accompanying earth tremor being felt.

 

It’s origin remained a mystery for years, but today scientists - looking at sediment levels and tree growth rings – can easily see evidence of a great quake (8.7-9.2)  occurring along the Cascadia fault at that time.

 

 

Although at the time of my previous blog there was evidence of a series of major quakes along this fault line, going back thousands of years, in August of 2012 a new study was published that suggests another quake is `overdue’.

 

The study, was published by the USGS, and may be read at the link below:

 

Turbidite Event History—Methods and Implications for Holocene Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone

By Chris Goldfinger, C. Hans Nelson, Ann E. Morey, Joel E. Johnson, Jason R. Patton, Eugene Karabanov, Julia Gutiérrez-Pastor, Andrew T. Eriksson, Eulàlia Gràcia, Gita Dunhill, Randolph J. Enkin, Audrey Dallimore, and Tracy Vallier

 

 

For those who would prefer not to wade through the paper, we have a press release from the Oregon State University, that explains the findings.  Excerpts follow:

 

13-year Cascadia study complete – and earthquake risk looms large

8-1-12

CORVALLIS, Ore. – A comprehensive analysis of the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Northwest coast confirms that the region has had numerous earthquakes over the past 10,000 years, and suggests that the southern Oregon coast may be most vulnerable based on recurrence frequency.

 

Written by researchers at Oregon State University, and published online by the U.S. Geological Survey, the study concludes that there is a 40 percent chance of a major earthquake in the Coos Bay, Ore., region during the next 50 years. And that earthquake could approach the intensity of the Tohoku quake that devastated Japan in March of 2011.

 

“The southern margin of Cascadia has a much higher recurrence level for major earthquakes than the northern end and, frankly, it is overdue for a rupture,” said Chris Goldfinger, a professor in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and lead author of the study. “That doesn’t mean that an earthquake couldn’t strike first along the northern half, from Newport, Ore., to Vancouver Island.

 

“But major earthquakes tend to strike more frequently along the southern end – every 240 years or so – and it has been longer than that since it last happened,” Goldfinger added. “The probability for an earthquake on the southern part of the fault is more than double that of the northern end.”

 

The publication of the peer-reviewed analysis may do more than raise awareness of earthquake hazards and risks, experts say. The actuarial table and history of earthquake strength and frequency may eventually lead to an update in the state’s building codes.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Since we can’t prevent earthquakes, and accurate prediction of when they will occur is beyond our technology, our only recourse is to prepare for them.

 

In January of 2011 I profiled a Washington state based preparedness educator Carol Dunn, who maintains an excellent website on the hazards faced by those living in the Pacific Northwest called 2Resilience.

 

You’ll find numerous resources geared for professional first responders, citizen volunteers, and families, individuals, and businesses looking to improve their level of knowledge and preparedness.

 

Many of us who follow @Caroldn on Twitter find her dedication and enthusiasm on preparedness issues to be quite contagious.  And if your interests lie in that direction I’d certainly recommend you include her feed.

 

Another resource I strongly recommend is Shakeout.org, which promotes yearly earthquake drills and education around the country.

 

For more on how you can prepare for `the big one’ (even if you live someplace other than Los Angeles), I would recommend you download, read, and implement the advice provided by the The L. A. County Emergency Survival Guide.

 

And to become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with these types of disasters: visit the following preparedness sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

Because no matter where you live, its just a matter of time before the next disaster strikes.

The Very Model Of A Natural Disaster

Credit NHC 11am Sunday Track Map

 

# 6673

 

While it is impossible to know just how bad Hurricane-Hybrid Sandy will be as it approaches and crosses the eastern seaboard over the next 48 hours – or who, exactly, will be most affected – models continue to paint a sobering picture.

 

Tidal surge models from the National Hurricane Center suggest that large areas of the coastline could see storm tides 5-10 feet above normal. 

 

The following map is for a 5 ft surge:

 

Some models are suggesting that portions of New York Harbor could see tides exceeding 10 feet above normal, and the 11am advisory warns:

 

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT

 

SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

 

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

 

LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT

 

ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

 

CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

 

 

Based on the forecast of surge tides, heavy rains, and high winds the City of New York will suspend mass transit routes starting at 7pm tonight.

 

Gov: MTA will suspend all subway, bus and rail service as Hurricane Sandy advances

Last subway and rail trains will be at 7; last bus at 9pm

By Shane Dixon Kavanaugh / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

 

The last time the New York Subway system was shut down due to flooding was for Hurricane Irene in 2011.  The NYC MTA carries more than 8 million passengers on a typical weekday, and shutting down the entire system will take 8 to 10 hours (cite WSJ).

 

From Johns Hopkins University, we get this `model’ of possible power outages due to Sandy, based on current track forecasts.  

 

 

MEDIA ADVISORY: Hurricane Sandy – 10 million could lose power

As many as 10 million in the mid-Atlantic will lose power in the coming week, according to a computer model developed by an engineer at The Johns Hopkins University.

Please note: A multicolored map of power outage predictions is available. Email acl@jhu.edu

A map of power outages as predicted by Guikema’s model based on the official National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast from 18UTC (3 p.m. EDT) on Saturday, Oct. 27.

 

An engineer at The Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people from northern Virginia through New Jersey and into southeastern Pennsylvania will be without power in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Seth Guikema (pronounced Guy-keh-ma) and his team have developed a computer model built on outage data from 11 hurricanes to estimate the fraction of customers who will lose power, based on expected gust wind speed, expected duration of strong winds greater than 20 meters per second, and population density. They ran their model using the official National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast from 18UTC (3 p.m. EDT) on Saturday, and emphasize that the number of power outages could change as the storm progresses and forecasts become more definitive. It is possible that 10 million people is a conservative estimate, Guikema said.

 

Guikema’s model may help power companies allocate resources by predicting how many people will be without power and where the most outages will take place, and it provides information that emergency managers can use to better prepare for storms. Guikema, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, says the goal is to restore power faster and save customers money. Guikema will be running the model throughout the weekend and into next week as Hurricane Sandy makes landfall.

 

The Governor of New Jersey warned yesterday that power could be out for some residents for `seven to ten days’.  And for many people, that means no ability to cook, or to heat their homes.

 

Municipal water supplies, or water quality, could be affected as well.   Hence the need to be prepared to go several days - at least - without city services or utilities.

 

And while most people automatically worry about storm surge or high winds from hurricanes, between 1970 and 1999, the most lives have been claimed due to inland flooding. 

 

 

The NHC has released this five-day precipitation forecast, which should provide some idea of the extent of flooding that may occur.

 

 

 

While it is possible that Sandy won’t be as destructive as has been billed, storms like Camille, Andrew, and Katrina have shown us the folly of underestimating nature’s fury.

 

Today is the last day that people in the path of this storm will have to prepare. Those who are ordered to evacuate need to do so immediately.

 

 

To help track this storm, you may wish to revisit my blog from yesterday  Resources To Follow The Northeast Storm Online.

Preparing For After The Storm Passes

 

Minimum Preps : Emergency Weather Radio, First Aid Kit, Battery Lantern, Water storage

 

# 6664

 

 

Although still battering the Bahamas, Hurricane Sandy is looking increasingly like it will pose a threat to the United States Mid-Atlantic and New England regions over the next 3 or 4 days. 

 

Exactly how strong it will be, and what areas it will impact are unknown, although the following graphic from the National Hurricane Center’s 5am forecast gives us some pretty good ideas. 

 

 

As hurricanes move north they often expand in size, rather than strength. Even when they lose their tropical characteristics (become a post-tropical storm) their winds can remain very strong, but are less centralized.

 

In other words, whether Sandy remains a hurricane all the way to landfall is of little consequence.  This storm has the potential to cause a lot damage and disruption over a wide area.

 

Inland flooding, coastal flooding, and power outages are  likely threats, although substantial wind damage - and even tornadoes - are possible as well.

 

Those in the path of this storm who have extra food, water, provisions for emergency lighting, a first aid kit, an emergency weather radio, and a family emergency plan are likely to fare far better than those who fail to prepare.

 

The next 48 - 72 hours provides an excellent opportunity for those who have not already done so to put together their family emergency plan and to lay in any last minute provisions.

 

Often the real danger comes after the storm has passed - during the cleanup and recovery period - when utilities and other services may be out for days.

 

So with that in mind, a review this morning of food safety after the power goes out, storm cleanup and chainsaw safety, and the dangers of carbon monoxide poisoning from generators.

 

Food safety after a power outage is often a concern after a storm, something I covered back in 2010 in USDA: Food Safety When The Power Goes Out.  

 

A few excerpts include:

 

The USDA maintains a Food Safety and Inspection website with a great deal of consumer information about how to protect your food supplies during an emergency, and how to tell when to discard food that may no longer be safe to consume.

 

First, an audio podcast (5 minutes).

Surviving a Power Outage: Don't Be in the Dark When it Comes to Food Safety (Jun 2, 2010; 4:45) | Script

FSIS Food Safety staff discusses tips on how to be food safe during a power outage.

 

The USDA also maintains a large repository of food safety information available to be read online, or downloaded as a pdf.

 

A Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes

Note: This text-only version of the Guide has been optimized for accessibility. The illustrated PDF version (2.1MB) is recommended for printing.

 

 

Regarding post-storm cleanup, the the Peachtree City, Georgia NOAA weather page has some useful information, including dealing with repair contractors.

 

This is just an excerpt, follow the link for a lot more:

 

Safety After the Storm

Here are just a few safety tips...

• Be aware of hazards from exposed nails and broken glass.
• Do not touch downed power lines or objects in contact with downed lines. Report electrical hazards to the police and the utility company.
• If it is dark when you are inspecting your home, use a flashlight rather than a candle or torch to avoid the risk of fire or explosion in a damaged home.
• If you see frayed wiring or sparks, or if there is an odor of something burning, you should immediately shut off the electrical system at the main circuit breaker if you have not done so already.
• If you smell gas or suspect a leak, turn off the main gas valve, open all windows, and leave the house immediately. Notify the gas company, the police or fire departments, or State Fire Marshal's office, and do not turn on the lights, light matches, smoke, or do anything that could cause a spark. Do not return to your house until you are told it is safe to do so.
• For more information, visit the Centers for Disease and Prevention. They have a wealth of information about what to do in the aftermath of all sorts of events - like tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and many more.

 

Chainsaw accidents are common after storms as people work under adverse conditions to clear debris.  The CDC maintains a chainsaw safety webpage.  Excerpts follow:

 

Preventing Chain Saw Injuries During Tree Removal After a Disaster

Be aware of the risk of chain saw injury during tree removal

Each year, approximately 36,000 people are treated in hospital emergency departments for injuries from using chain saws. The potential risk of injury increases after hurricanes and other natural disasters, when chain saws are widely used to remove fallen or partially fallen trees and tree branches.

 

Gasoline generators, along with improvised cooking and heating facilities, can put people at risk of Carbon Monoxide poisoning. Each year, hundreds of Americans die from exposure to this odorless and colorless gas.

 

With chilly temperatures forecast after the storm - and the possibility of widespread  power outages - the potential for this sort of preventable tragedy in the post-storm period can’t be ignored.

 

In Carbon Monoxide: A Stealthy Killer I wrote in depth on the issue, but a few tips from the CDC include:

 

Prevention Guidelines

You Can Prevent Carbon Monoxide Exposure

• Do have your heating system, water heater and any other gas, oil, or coal burning appliances serviced by a qualified technician every year.
• Do install a battery-operated CO detector in your home and check or replace the battery when you change the time on your clocks each spring and fall. If the detector sounds leave your home immediately and call 911.
• Do seek prompt medical attention if you suspect CO poisoning and are feeling dizzy, light-headed, or nauseous.
• Don't use a generator, charcoal grill, camp stove, or other gasoline or charcoal-burning device inside your home, basement, or garage or near a window.
• Don't run a car or truck inside a garage attached to your house, even if you leave the door open.
• Don't burn anything in a stove or fireplace that isn't vented.
• Don't heat your house with a gas oven.

 

 

And as a last stop on our preparedness tour, a visit to the CDC’s Emergency Preparedness and Response  website, which provides advice on a variety of post-storm topics including electrical and fire hazards, mosquitoes, mold, unstable buildings and structures, and the dangers posed by wild and stray animals.

 

 

Prevent and Treat Other Illnesses and Injuries After a Hurricane or Flood

 

 

 

While many believe the worst will be over once the storm has passed, in truth, often the biggest challenges are found during the days and weeks that follow.

 

For more preparedness information I would invite you to visit:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

NPM12: Because We Don’t Know What Tomorrow Will Bring

 

Note: Today marks  the final day of National Preparedness Month, but that in no way signals the end of your need to prepare. Preparedness is a year-round job. 

 

 

Over the past 30 days I’ve posted more than a dozen preparedness blogs, so today I thought I’d explain how I became a `prepper’.

 

Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM12 hash tag.

 

 

# 6597

 

 

I confess that I didn’t really start to think seriously about preparedness until 1984, when I bought my first sailboat and began to outfit it for extended coastal cruising.

 

I knew there would be times when my wife and I would be absolutely on our own – often miles from shore or in some remote region of the Ten Thousands Islands - well beyond the puny range of our VHF radio.

 

Suddenly, I was faced with playing the `What if?’ game.

 

• What if one of us got hurt?
• What if we were dismasted or driven hard aground?
• What if the outboard motor or radio died?
• What if we sank!

 

What if . . . what if . . . what if . . .  the possibilities for disaster were endless and daunting, and then there were the less emergent considerations. 

 

How much food and water could we carry?  How much fuel?   How would we generate electricity for anchor, navigation, and interior lights . . . and for the radio?

 

As the only thing smaller than our 23-foot Grampian sailboat was the budget we had for outfitting her, it took nearly a year to get her ready for the cruise. Twelve months, and $7,500 dollars later (and that included the price of the 12 year old boat!), we headed south.

 

Cheryl at the Helm of Halcyon

 

I’m happy to report that while we did see our share of storms, gear failures, minor injuries, and accidental groundings we managed to enjoy the better part of a year cruising without any major mishaps.

 

But it wouldn’t have had a happy ending without proper planning.

 

During the mid-1990’s I moved from the water to the land, and tried my hand at taming 24 acres of Missouri backwoods. Once again, living miles from the nearest town and occasionally cut off for a week or more by snow and ice storms, made preparedness and self-sufficiency paramount.

 

The view from our 4000sf garden

 

I confess - I’m not really much of a backwoodsman - and while I learned many skills during that time, I finally was able to return to Florida in 2005 (the statute of limitations had expired).

 

So you see, I come by my preparedness streak honestly.

 

Even though I no longer live aboard a boat, or in the backwoods, I still believe in being prepared. 

 

Not for the end of the world - as seems to be the popular perception of preppers - but for the very real and all-to-common disasters and emergencies that happen all the time.

 

Thirty days ago, on the first day of National Preparedness Month, I highlighted a very effective graphic from  Ready.gov that shows the `day before disaster’ for all 50 states.

 

The date when it was still not too late to prepare.

Click through to the interactive map, to see each state’s date with destiny.

 

If you click on California, for example, you’ll get:

 

You get the idea. 

 

The takeaway point is, you never know whether today is the day before your disaster . . .

 

The thing that keeps emergency planners up at night is the knowledge that during a disaster, far too many people will be unprepared to fend for themselves until emergency help can arrive.

 

Which is why the Federal government wants all of us to be prepared for emergencies, as they know that during a `normal’ disaster (of which dozens occur every year) citizens may be on their own for up to 72 hours. 

 

In an extreme disaster (like we saw with Katrina in 2005), some people may end up having to fend for themselves for a week or longer.

 

 

Based on the  events in Japan (or after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, or the earthquake in Haiti) 3 days of supplies many not be enough for a truly worst case scenario.

 

The County of Los Angeles Emergency Survival Guide calls for having 3 to 10 days worth of food and water.

 

Personally, I believe that 2-weeks of supplies isn’t an unreasonable goal, particularly if you live in earthquake or hurricane country.

 

The L.A. guide may be downloaded here (6.5 Mbyte PDF).

 

 

The bottom line is everyone should have a disaster plan. Everyone should have a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last a bare minimum of 72 hours.

 

For more on  disaster preparedness, I would invite you to visit:

 

NPM12: Disaster Buddies

When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough

NPM12: The Gift Of Preparedness

An Appropriate Level Of Preparedness

NPM12: The Ethics Of Preparedness

 

Note: This is day 22 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM12 hash tag.

 

This month, as part of NPM12, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

 

 

# 6570

 

As a long-time committed prepper, I admit I come away from viewing cable shows like Doomsday Preppers on the National Geographic Channel and Doomsday Bunkers on the Discovery Channel with a certain degree of unease.

The vivid doomsday scenarios and over-the-top preparations may make for entertaining TV, but they are hardly representative of the mainstream preparedness movement.

 

When FEMA, Ready.gov, and the American Red Cross encourage us to prepare for emergencies, they aren’t asking us to dig a bunker, or stockpile 20 years worth of freeze dried foods.

 

They are hoping for a more reasoned response (see NPM12: Everyday Preppers).

 

But even if we are talking about a week or two worth of emergency supplies, there are some who view the idea that preparing – when others with limited financial means cannot - is somehow unfair, or even unethical.

 

A noble and egalitarian sounding idea, I suppose.

 

But the reality is that when more people are prepared before a crisis, fewer people will be competing for finite and sometimes slow-to-arrive emergency assistance in the days following a disaster.

 

And when you as an individual, family, or business are prepared, you are in a better position to offer help to friends, neighbors, relatives, or your community.

 

Which makes prepping not only ethical, but extremely practical as well.

 

And it isn’t just me saying that.

 

In October, 2008 I wrote a blog which highlighted the John's Hopkins Study entitled Ethics and Severe Pandemic Influenza: Maintaining Essential Functions through a Fair and Considered Response.

 

It included the following snippet from the summary provided on  the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics website.

 

. . .  individuals and families who can afford it should do their best to prepare for any disaster. The paper notes, the more initiative the general public exercises in stockpiling several weeks' worth of food, water, paper goods, batteries medicines, and other needed supplies, the less vulnerable they will be to a break in the supply chain.

 

It is important for leaders to communicate to the middle class and the wealthy that it is their responsibility to prepare for self-sufficiency in order to free up scarce supplies and allow first responders to direct their attention towards those too poor or vulnerable to prepare themselves.

While this may not have been the main thrust of this paper's message, it is a powerful component. One that bloggers such as myself have been trying to promote for several years.

 

As long as our supply chains are intact, grocery store shelves are full and capable of being restocked, and no major shortages exist it is not hoarding, selfish, or unethical to be stockpiling a reasonable amount of emergency supplies for you, your family, and others you might be able to assist during a disaster.

 

During a crisis, relief agencies will have their hands full trying to help those who were unable to prepare, or who lost their preps due to a disaster.

 

By being prepared in advance, you take some of that burden off these agencies, which will allow them to concentrate their efforts on helping those less able to help themselves.

 

And by being prepared, you are in a better position to help others as well.

 

And that’s a win-win situation. For you, your family, and your whole community.

 

While 72 hours is considered the minimum amount of  time for which you and your family should be prepared, there is nothing that says you shouldn’t strive to do better than that.

 

A week or more of emergency supplies (along with an emergency NWS radio, first aid kit, and a family disaster plan) is a laudable, and easily obtainable, goal. 

 

Over the past decade, personal and community preparedness has become a national goal.

 

For more information, visit:

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

 

It’s really the ethical thing to do.

NPM12: Everyday Preppers

 

Note: This is day 6 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM12 hash tag.

 

This month, as part of NPM12, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

 

# 6538

 

After watching Doomsday Preppers on the National Geographic Channel and Doomsday Bunkers on the Discovery Channel many people may come away thinking that all preppers are crazed fanatics gearing up for the impending apocalypse. 

 

Which apocalypse you ask? 

 

Why, take your pick.  There appear to be scores of improbable nightmare scenarios fueling an `end of days’ fever these days, ranging from an all-out nuclear war to an asteroid strike to the fulfillment of the so-called `Mayan Prophesies’.

 

But for the vast majority of us who embrace the preparedness lifestyle - it is the far more common localized disaster that spurs us on:

 

. .. hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, blizzards, earthquakes, floods . . . along with even more limited emergencies like house fires, car accidents, or personal accident and injury.

 

Of course, if you want decent cable TV ratings, you don’t profile those who maintain a 14 day supply of necessities in their pantry, volunteer for CERT, have a well thought out family emergency plan, or take pride in keeping a well stocked first aid kit.

 

No . . .  you focus on families with elaborate secret underground bunkers, a 20 year supply of freeze-dried foods, weapons capable of taking down Godzilla with one well-placed shot, and a firm belief that the end is nigh.

 

It is TV, after all.

 

While we collectively wait for doomsday (and I’m perfectly content to wait a long, long time for mine) we are nonetheless faced with an ongoing parade of lesser - but no less burdensome to those affected – localized disasters.

 

They happen with surprising regularity - and unlike an abrupt 30 degree shift of the earth’s crust or the eruption of the Yellowstone Super Volcano - are something being prepared for is actually likely to help.

 

A severe storm can knock out electrical power and phone service for days, sometimes weeks. Public services (including 911) can be severely disrupted, and something as routine as obtaining food and potable water for your family may be difficult for several days.

 

There are many legitimate disaster threats out there, which is why FEMA, READY.GOV, and many other agencies actively promote personal, family, and business preparedness.

 

To that end the Federal government has produced copious toolkits, brochures, pamphlets, and even mobile apps designed to help citizens prepare . . . for just about anything.

 

One such toolkit is FEMA’s Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness (IS-22) – which, at 204 pages – ranks as one of the most comprehensive guides to public preparedness available.

 

FEMA describes this guide as:

 

An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness

Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness (IS-22) is FEMA’s most comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness. The guide has been revised, updated and enhanced in August 2004 to provide the public with the most current and up-to-date disaster preparedness information available.

 

Are You Ready? provides a step-by-step approach to disaster preparedness by walking the reader through how to get informed about local emergency plans, how to identify hazards that affect their local area and how to develop and maintain an emergency communications plan and disaster supplies kit. Other topics covered include evacuation, emergency public shelters, animals in disaster and information specific to people with access and functional needs.

 

Are You Ready? also provides in-depth information on specific hazards including what to do before, during and after each hazard type. The following hazards are covered: Floods, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and Lightning, Winter Storms and Extreme Cold, Extreme Heat, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Landslide and Debris Flows (Mudslide), Tsunamis, Fires, Wildfires, Hazardous Materials Incidents, Household Chemical Emergencies, Nuclear Power Plant and Terrorism (including Explosion, Biological, Chemical, Nuclear and Radiological hazards).

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Disasters happen.

 

And while they don’t often occur on a national or international scale (an assumption with which residents of Haiti, Pakistan, and Japan might just take exception), they can be devastating to large segments of our population.

 

Admittedly, a lot of the preparations highlighted by these `survivalist’ genre TV shows seem to be more than a little screwy, even to this lifelong prepper . . .

 

But having no plan . . . well that’s just plain nuts.

An Increasingly Complex Flu Field

 

(Click to enlarge)

 

# 6534

 

 

Up until 1977  it was considered normal that only one strain of influenza A circulated at a time.

 

When a new pandemic strain appeared (as it did in 1918, 1957, and 1968), the existing seasonal strain – for reasons that weren’t well understood – would vanish, and in time the new pandemic virus would settle in as the seasonal flu.

 

But in 1977 something unprecedented happened.

 

The H1N1 flu virus – which had been replaced by the pandemic H2N2 virus in 1957 (only to be replaced by the H3N2 strain 11 years later) - suddenly reappeared after 20 years absence.

 

The theory is that it escaped from a Russian or Chinese lab’s freezer, as it was almost unchanged from a strain not seen since the early 1950s. 

 

It was dubbed the `Russian flu’, and for a while, slammed Emergency rooms and Flu wards in a big way.

 

Most adults had some immunity left over from their exposures before 1957, and so kids under 20 were the hardest hit.  But unlike in 1918, 1957, and 1968 – this new flu didn’t depose the old flu.

 

Instead we ended up with two major Influenza A strains bumping shoulders and jockeying for position.  Some years H3N2 would dominate, and other years it would be H1N1.

 

Further complicating matters we also have Influenza B viruses, which while generally regarded as less serious than influenza A, have divided into two distinct lineages (Yamagata & Victoria.

 

And they too compete each year for dominance.

 

Which leaves us with (currently) four major flu strains to contend with; 

• A/H1N109
• A/H3N2
• B/Victoria
• B/Yamagata

 

These viruses constantly change and evolve over time, and we often have several clades of each strain at any given time. The most recent ECDC: Influenza Virus Characterization found 5 genetically distinct H3N2 strains in circulation across Europe.

 

The recent emergence of a new – antigenically different – H3N2 strain, along with the recent dominance of the Yamagata influenza B virus, has prompted a major change in this year’s flu vaccine.

 

• The H1N1 component remains essentially unchanged, with the A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)pdm09-like  still recommended.
• But the old A/Perth/16/2009 (H3N2)-like virus now gives way to the A/Victoria/361/2011 (H3N2)-like virus.
• And the Victoria lineage B/Brisbane/60/2008-like virus will be replaced by a Yamagata strain; the B/Wisconsin/1/2010-like virus. 

 

Which makes getting the flu vaccine this fall doubly important, as it is likely that community immunity to both of these strains is low.

 

Beyond these four, keeping researchers up late at night is the fact that there are no fewer than six influenza viruses that – while not well adapted to humans  – keep trying to nudge their way into the human host pool.

 

Most people by now are aware of the concerns over the H5N1 `bird flu’, but less well known are the H7 avian strains, which have managed to jump to humans several times over the past decade.

 

• In 2003 an outbreak of H7N7 at a poultry farm in the Netherlands went on to infect at least 89 people. Most of the victims were only mildly affected, but one person died.
• In 2004 two people in British Columbia tested positive for H7N3 (see Health Canada Report) during an outbreak that resulted in the culling of 19 million birds.
• In 2006 and 2007 there were a small number of human infections in Great Britain caused by H7N3 (n=1)  and H7N2 (n=4), again producing mild symptoms.

 

H9N2 is another avian strain that has, on rare occasions, infected humans and is believed to have some pandemic potential. Over the past dozen years a small handful of cases have been identified – mostly in Hong Kong (see CIDRAP Avian Influenza (Bird Flu): Implications for Human Disease).

 

• In January of 2010, in H9N2: The Other Bird Flu Threat, I wrote about the World Health Organization  recommending the creation of a candidate vaccine virus for H9N2.

• And in November 2010, in Study: The Continuing Evolution Of Avian H9N2, we looked at computer modeling that suggested that the H9N2 virus moving towards becoming more `human-adapted’.

 

And since 2005 the CDC has been reporting a growing number of swine flu variants that have managed – on rare occasions – to jump to humans.

 

The three main flu strains circulating in pigs are:

• H1N1
• H1N2
• H3N2

When one of these swine viruses jumps to a human host, it is then called a `variant’ virus. 

 

Up until last year, it was the trH1N1 swine virus (now called H1N1v) that had been most commonly reported. The numbers were very low – rarely more than 2 or 3 infections each year.

 

Over the past year, the focus has shifted to the H3N2v virus, which emerged in the summer of 2011. After a quiet winter and spring, this summer it has infected several hundred people in the Midwest – most (but not all) appear to have contracted it directly from exposure to pigs.

 

And as an added surprise, on Friday of last week we learned of 1 confirmed and 2 suspected cases of a variant flu strain that had only been reported twice during the previous 7 years, in Minnesota Reports Swine H1N2v Flu.

 

Next week this chart will likely need updating.

 

There are other flu strains out there, of course.

 

Earlier this year, concerns were raised over an H3N8 flu virus that had killed seals off the coast of New England, and which conceivably could infect other mammals as well (see mBio: A Mammalian Adapted H3N8 In Seals).

 

And given the propensity for flu viruses to reassort (swap gene segments), the possibility of seeing an entirely new flu strain emerge can’t be ignored.

 

Nature’s laboratory is open 24/7, and unlike human researchers suffers neither from bureaucratic rules or budgetary constraints.

 

That said, history has shown that pandemic events only happen rarely; just three times during the last century (albeit with a couple of close-but-no-cigar events thrown in to keep us on our toes). 

 

Even with all of these potential threats on the viral horizon we could easily see average flu season.

 

So far, none of these novel viruses has demonstrated the ability to transmit among humans in a sustained and efficient manner while producing significant illness.

And if we get lucky, they never will. 

 

But as schools open, and cooler weather arrives, the conditions conducive for the spread of influenza improve. And that holds true whether we are talking seasonal flu, or one of these upstart strains.

 

Today is day three of National Preparedness Month, and while most people think of emergency preparedness as something you do for hurricanes and earthquakes, flu epidemics are also worth planning for as well.

 

Preparedness should include practicing good flu hygiene (hand washing-sanitizing, covering cough & sneezes, staying home if sick) all year round, and getting the flu shot early each year.

 

No one can predict with certainty the kind of flu year we will see, and I certainly have no special insight into the matter. The CDC states it pretty succinctly:

 

What sort of flu season is expected this year?

Flu seasons are unpredictable. The CDC and WHO closely monitor flu cases to identify new viruses or potential epidemics or pandemics.

 

The CDC and the WHO obviously take pandemics and epidemics very seriously, which is reason enough for us to take a more in-depth look at pandemic preparedness later this month as National Preparedness Month continues.