Preparing For An Unpredictable New Year

 

# 8119

 

When it comes to making forecasts for the coming year, I generally default to the late Baltimore Sun columnist Jack Germond’s incredibly droll (and 100% safe) New Year’s Eve prediction he issued a couple of decades ago that, `There will be a flood somewhere.’

 

Not being afraid to go out on a limb, I go a little further, saying:

 

There will be a flood – or some other disaster - and some people will suffer unnecessarily because they weren’t adequately prepared.

 

Shocking, I know.  

 

But despite a nearly constant barrage of preparedness messaging from governments, organizations, and humble bloggers like myself, half of all American families haven’t even taken the most basic of disaster preparedness steps, and I’d guess fewer than 10% are really well prepared for a serious event.

 

Last year, an American Red Cross poll (Coastal Hurricane Preparedness May 2013), found only about half the respondents had an evacuation plan, 1/3rd have no home disaster supplies, and only about half reported having a family communications plan.

 

During the first decade of promoting their National Preparedness Month (NPM), FEMA and READY.Gov have seen some signs of progress (see graphic below).

The goal of this yearly campaign is to foster a culture of national preparedness, and to encourage everyone to plan and be prepared to deal with an event where they can go at least 72 hours without electricity, running water, local services, or access to a supermarket.

 

Still,  far too many American families and businesses remain poorly equipped to deal with a major disaster. And that knowledge keeps emergency planners up at night.

 

For those who equate prepping with sensationalized cable TV and Internet `Doomsday-type’ preppers, rest assured we aren’t talking about digging a bunker, laying in a 10-year supply of freeze dried foods, or stockpiling guns and ammo.

 

But disruptions that follow hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, floods, and other natural disasters can potentially last for days or even weeks, and so – if you are able to do so - being prepared for 10 days to 2 weeks makes a good deal of sense (see When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough).

 

In 2012, in Making The Most Of The Day Before Tomorrow, I highlighted a very effective graphic from  Ready.gov that shows the `day before disaster’ for all 50 states. The date when it was still not too late to prepare.

 

Click through to the interactive map, to see each state’s date with destiny.

 

 

If you click on California, for example, you’ll get:

You get the idea. 

The takeaway point is, you never know whether today is the day before your disaster . . .

 

We’ll be covering a lot of preparedness topics during 2014 – along with our regular litany of emerging infectious diseases – because in a world as crowded, complex, and interconnected as ours, bad things are sure to happen.

 

And among those `bad things’ is the potential for seeing epidemics or even a pandemic.

 

But the smart money says, you shouldn’t prepare for a specific emergency or disaster, but instead create an `All Hazards approach’  to preparedness, one that  will leave you in good stead no matter what comes down the pike.

 

To get you started, I would invite you to visit:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

If you are on Twitter, I would recommend you follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.

 

And lastly, in NPM13: The Greatest Prep Of All,  I wrote about what I consider to be the most important preparedness step you can take – having, and being,  a disaster buddy.  Cultivating a network of family and friends to whom you can turn for help in a disaster, to who can turn to you for aid,  if they need it.

 

Because - while I can’t predict what disaster will happen, or when, or even where – its a safe bet that in 2014 hundreds of thousands of people around the world will find themselves wishing  they were better prepared in the midst of a crisis.

With a little bit of pre-planning and effort, you needn’t be one of them.

 

You can use this link to read earlier NPM preparedness posts on this blog.

NPM13: Everyday Preppers

 

Note: This is day 30 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

 

# 7824

 

 

National Preparedness Month comes to a close today, and once again AFD is proud to have been part of the Ready.gov/FEMA coalition.  Over the past 30 days I’ve posted 20 preparedness essays (link) on topics ranging from family communications plans to radiological emergencies to the ethics of prepping.  Of course, preparedness is a year-round activity, not just something we think about in September.

 

My preparedness background evolved out of necessity (see NPM13: The Making Of A Prepper), not some fear of an imminent apocalypse. First due to my profession (paramedic), then by my ten years of living aboard a cruising sailboat, followed by a decade in the backwoods of Missouri.

 

The popularity of Doomsday Preppers on the National Geographic Channel  probably has a lot of people believing that preppers are all getting set for the impending apocalyptic collapse of society.  But for the vast majority of us who embrace the preparedness lifestyle - it is the far more common localized disaster that spurs us on:

 

. .. hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, blizzards, earthquakes, floods (and yes, even a pandemic)  . . . along with even more limited emergencies like house fires, car accidents, or personal accident and injury.

 

They happen with surprising regularity - and unlike an abrupt 30 degree shift of the earth’s crust or the eruption of the Yellowstone Super Volcano - are something being prepared for is actually likely to help.

 

But if you want decent cable TV ratings, you don’t profile those who maintain a 14 day supply of food and water in their pantry, volunteer for CERT, have a well thought out family emergency plan, or take pride in keeping a well stocked first aid kit.

 

No . . .  you focus on families with elaborate secret underground bunkers, a 20 year supply of freeze-dried foods, weapons capable of taking down Godzilla with one well-placed shot, and a firm belief that the end is nigh.

 

It is TV, after all.

 

But there are many legitimate disaster threats out there, and emergency planners (of which I was one, years ago) know that during any medium-to-large scale disaster, emergency assistance may take days to reach some of those affected, and essential services (water, power, EMS, etc) may be disrupted for weeks.

 

Which is why FEMA, READY.GOV, and many other agencies actively promote personal, family, and business preparedness. To that end the Federal government has produced copious toolkits, brochures, pamphlets, and even mobile apps designed to help citizens prepare . . . for just about anything.

 

One such toolkit is FEMA’s Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness (IS-22) – which, at 204 pages – ranks as one of the most comprehensive guides to public preparedness available.

FEMA describes this guide as:

An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness

Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness (IS-22) is FEMA’s most comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness. The guide has been revised, updated and enhanced in August 2004 to provide the public with the most current and up-to-date disaster preparedness information available.

Are You Ready? provides a step-by-step approach to disaster preparedness by walking the reader through how to get informed about local emergency plans, how to identify hazards that affect their local area and how to develop and maintain an emergency communications plan and disaster supplies kit. Other topics covered include evacuation, emergency public shelters, animals in disaster and information specific to people with access and functional needs.

Are You Ready? also provides in-depth information on specific hazards including what to do before, during and after each hazard type. The following hazards are covered: Floods, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and Lightning, Winter Storms and Extreme Cold, Extreme Heat, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Landslide and Debris Flows (Mudslide), Tsunamis, Fires, Wildfires, Hazardous Materials Incidents, Household Chemical Emergencies, Nuclear Power Plant and Terrorism (including Explosion, Biological, Chemical, Nuclear and Radiological hazards).

(Continue . . . )

 

Disasters happen.

 

And while they don’t often occur on a national or international scale (an assumption with which residents of Haiti, Pakistan, and Japan might just take exception), they can be devastating to large segments of our population.

 

Admittedly, a lot of the preparations highlighted by these `survivalist’ genre TV shows seem to be more than a little screwy, even to this lifelong prepper . . .

 

But having no plan . . . well that’s just plain nuts.

NPM13: CPR Skills & AED Simulator

Source American Heart Association

 

Note: This is day 29 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays, along with some new ones.

 

#7823

 

Although we often talk about preparedness in terms of having an emergency plan and  the right supplies (First Aid Kit, Emergency Radio, Bottled Water, Full Pantry, etc.), it is also important to have the right skills to deal with an emergency.  Basic stuff – like how to use a fire extinguisher, how to turn off the gas supply to your home or business, how to stop bleeding or apply first aid.

 

One of the most common emergency situations you are likely to encounter is witnessing a Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA).  More than a thousand occur every day across the nation, often in public places like parking lots, shopping malls, and houses of worship.   

 

This from the Heart Rhythm Association:

 

• Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) is a leading cause of death in the United States, claiming more than 350,000 lives each year.^1,2  
• An estimated 382,800 people experience sudden cardiac arrest in the United States each year.
• Approximately 92% of those who experience sudden cardiac arrest do not survive.
• SCA kills more than 1,000 people a day, or one person every 90 seconds ^1,2 — a number great than the number of deaths each year from breast cancer, lung cancer, stroke or AIDS.

What the people who witness these events do in the first few minutes can mean the difference between life and death for the stricken individual. Luckily, hands-only CPR (cardio-pulmonary resuscitation) is easier to do than ever before, and there are thousands of AEDs (automated external defibrillators) stationed in public venues across the nation.

 

With a little bit of training, you can literally save someone’s life.

 

AEDs are designed to be used by laypersons who ideally should have received some AED training.  Like doing CPR, the required skills are relatively simple, but they do require some degree of familiarity.  I would strongly encourage everyone to take a CPR class, and if you already done so – take a refresher course every couple of years.

 

While this blog isn’t a substitute for taking a CPR class, it can help familiarize you with the basics.

 

Witnessing a cardiac arrest, particularly of a loved-one, can be a terrifying and traumatic experience. Far too often, bystanders are paralyzed into doing nothing while they wait for rescuers to arrive. As a paramedic, only rarely did I arrive on scene to find someone attempting to resuscitate a patient.

 

Almost inevitably, however, some kind soul had placed a pillow under the head of the victim to make them more `comfortable’, effectively closing off their airway.

 

Consequently, even with the advanced life support equipment we carried, our success rate in reviving these patients was dismally low.

 

Luckily, the new hands only resuscitation method -  which eliminates the need for mouth-to-mouth ventilation - makes doing CPR easier than ever before. But hand’s on training is still important, if you expect to be able to react properly during an emergency. While it won’t take the place of an actual class, you can watch how it is done on in this brief instructional video from the American Heart Association.

 

A CPR class only takes a few hours, can be fun, and is well worth the effort.

 

To find a local CPR course contact your local chapter of the American Red Cross, the American Heart Association, or (usually) your local fire department or EMS can steer you to a class.

 

Earlier this year a buddy of mine (thanks, Cliff) passed along a link to an online training site that, in a few short minutes, can familiarize the layperson with what to do when confronted by a sudden cardiac arrest, and what to expect when opening and using an AED.

 

This interactive video is particularly well done, and is provided by the Medtronic Foundation, in conjunction with the Heart Rescue Project.  First the three steps you should know, then the video.

What to do if you see someone suddenly collapse.

If you see someone collapse suddenly, check if the victim is responsive. If not, remember these three easy steps.

Call 911

Have them send help. Stay on the line and listen for further instructions.

Start Chest Compressions

If the person is not breathing normally, start chest compressions. Push down hard and fast in the center of the chest. Keep your arms straight. Send someone to find an AED.

Use An AED

The AED (automated external defibrillator) is a portable medical device that delivers an electrical shock to restart a person’s heart. It provides voice prompts that tell you exactly what to do and will only administer a shock if needed, so there’s no reason to hesitate.

 

It only takes a few minutes to familiarize yourself with the operations of an AED by visiting the following website.  

LINK

I should point out that not all cardiac arrests can be corrected by defibrillation, even if conducted in a timely manner. There are non-shockable arrhythmias that an AED cannot convert to sinus rhythm.

 

Non-shockable cardiac arrest arrhythmias are asystole (flat line) and PEA (Pulseless Electrical Activity) – what we used to call back in the stone age of EMS, electromechanical dissociation.

 

Neither of which respond to defibrillation.

 

Patients can sometimes still be saved with CPR alone, at least until the right cardiac meds can be administered. For more on all of this, we have the press release from the American Heart Association.

 

Guidelines-based CPR saves more non-shockable cardiac arrest victims

April 02, 2012

Study Highlights:

• CPR can save someone with cardiac arrest even if they don’t respond to a defibrillator.
• People with non-shockable cardiac arrest are more likely to live if they receive CPR based on recent guidelines emphasizing chest compressions.
• The American Heart Association’s CPR guidelines emphasizing chest compressions are saving more lives, according to a new study.

 

Of course, despite your best efforts, many SCA victims will not survive. But early and coordinated action taken by bystanders (calling 911, starting CPR, using AED if available) can substantially improve their chances.

 

For more on heart attacks, and CPR, you may wish to visit some of these earlier blogs.

 

Deadlier Than For The Male

Survivability Of Non-Shockable Rhythms With New CPR Guidelines

Fear Of Trying

NPM11: Early CPR Saves Lives

NPM13: Create A Family Communications Plan

Note: This is day 25 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

 

# 7814

 

 

Those of us who were living in Florida during the `bad old days’ of the cold war remember well the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

 

Although it is hard to imagine it today, much of Florida was on a war footing with fears of a nuclear attack that might come at any time, thousands of military streaming into the state, and schools running daily `duck & cover’ and emergency evacuation exercises.

 

Kids were sent home with civil defense pamphlets on the basics of radiation poisoning and how to build an in-home fallout shelter.

 

As an 8-year-old with a scientific bent, these were exciting times.

 

What I didn’t full appreciate at the time was my parents were faced with an agonizing dilemma. My twin-brother and I attended a nearby elementary school, while my 17-year old sister attended high school some distance away.

 

If the alert went up, they realized they might only have time to get to one school to pick up their kids.

 

Logic dictated that the pick up my brother and I, based on our ages, and the fact that there were two of us. My sister was given instructions to go to the home of one of her high school friends, and our folks would  either contact her or pick her up there.

 

More than 50 years ago, in the face of a potential crisis, my family cobbled together their own emergency communications plan including an alternate rendezvous point.

 

While a nuclear attack is (thankfully) far less likely today, the same principles hold true when it comes to having a communications plan, and a meet-up point.

 

And since a tornado, earthquake, house fire, or some other disaster can strike without warning . . .  these are the sorts of plans every family needs to make now. Before they are needed.

 

This from Ready.gov.

 

 MAKE A PLAN

Your family may not be together when a disaster strikes so it is important to plan in advance: how you will get to a safe place; how you will contact one another; how you will get back together; and what you will do in different situations. Read more about Family Communication during an emergency.

Ready.gov has made it simple for you to make a family emergency plan. Download the Family Communication Plan for Parents and Kids (PDF - 1.2 Mb) and fill out the sections before printing it or emailing it to your family and friends.

You should also inquire about emergency plans at places where your family spends time: work, daycare and school, faith organizations, sports events and commuting. If no plans exist, consider volunteering to help create one. Talk to community leaders, your colleagues, neighbors and members of faith or civic organizations about how you can work together in the event of an emergency. You will be better prepared to safely reunite your family and loved ones during an emergency if you think ahead and communicate with others in advance. Read more about school and workplace plans.

 

 

 

READY.GOV has made things  easier today, as they’ve developed  several Family Emergency Communication Kits geared for both adults and kids, which can be downloaded from the net. With just a few minutes effort, you can have your own emergency communications plan and emergency meeting place set up.

 

While the above version is geared to kids, the version below is more suitable for teenagers and adults.

 

Appendix C of the Are You Ready? Guide (contains blank contact cards and a family communications plan form)

 

Filling out these cards may seem a small step, but that's what most preparedness involves.

 

Taking small, organized steps that, when put together, create a fabric of individual and community preparedness.  If you do just one small step each day, in almost no time you’ll find yourself and your family far better prepared to face any emergency.

 

For more on how to prepare, visit these websites:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

And you can use this link to read earlier NPM preparedness posts on this blog.

NPM13: Radiological Emergencies

Photo Credit CDC PHE

 

Note: This is day 23 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays, along with some new ones (like this one).

 

# 7801

 

For most Americans, the idea that we might have to deal with a radiological emergency sounds like something out of the Cold War era (1950s to the1980s), when multiple Soviet warheads were targeted on every major American city and nuclear annihilation seemed all but unavoidable . Today, we’ve pulled back from that brink, have reduced our nuclear stockpiles by 80%, and a global thermonuclear war seems unlikely.

 

But radiological threats remain, both due to deliberate acts, and due to accidents and natural disasters.   One need look only as far as the Fukushima disaster of 2011 to see how quickly a radiological emergency can affect a large population. 

This from the CDC’s PHE website:

 

A radiological or nuclear incidents occurring within the U.S. homeland or elsewhere could take a number of forms, including: contamination of food or water with radioactive material; placement of radiation sources in public locations; detonation of radiological dispersal devices that scatter radioactive material over a populated area; an attack on a nuclear power plant or a high-level nuclear waste storage facility; or an improvised nuclear device.

 

The CDC, HHS, FEMA, and other agencies take these threats seriously, as is evidenced by a multi-million dollar contract let last week by the HHS to stockpile Thrombosomes – freeze-dried platelets – used for the treatment of acute radiation sickness.

 

HHS funds development of freeze-dried platelets for disaster response

New product could improve care for Acute Radiation Syndrome and daily medical care

Date: September 20, 2013

Organization: Cellphire Inc. of Rockville, Md.

Funding: This contract is for $11 million in the first 18 months and can be extended if milestones are met for a total of up to five years and up to $56.7 million.

About this contract:  Cellphire will further develop Thrombosomes as a possible treatment for acute radiation syndrome. Thrombosomes is a novel freeze-dried blood product derived from human platelets.

Using a proprietary stabilization method, Cellphire can convert platelets into a powder that can be stored at room temperature for extended periods. When the product is needed, the powder can be reconstituted rapidly using sterile water and injected to restore normal clotting.

(Continue . . .)

 

The CDC’s Public Health Emergency Website lists six types of radiological threats, with links to tell you more about them.

 

Nuclear Emergencies

• A nuclear emergency involves the explosion of a nuclear weapon or improvised nuclear device (IND).
• The explosion produces an intense pulse of heat, light, air pressure, and radiation.
• Nuclear explosions produce fallout (radioactive materials that can be carried long distances by the wind).

Learn more about nuclear emergencies

---

Dirty Bomb or Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD)

• A dirty bomb (also known as a radiological dispersal device) is a mix of explosives such as dynamite, with radioactive powder or pellets.
• A dirty bomb cannot create an atomic blast.
• When the explosives are set off, the blast carries radioactive material into the surrounding area.

Learn more about dirty bombs

---

Radiological Exposure Device (RED)

• A radiological exposure device (also called a hidden sealed source) is made of or contains radioactive material.
• REDs are hidden from sight to expose people to radiation without their knowledge.

Learn more about radiological exposure devices

---

Nuclear Power Plant Accident

• An accident at a nuclear power plant could release radiation over an area.
• Nuclear power plants have many safety and security procedures in place and are closely monitored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)

Learn more about nuclear power plant accidents

---

Transportation Accidents

• It is very unlikely that a transportation accident involving radiation would result in any radiation-related injuries or illnesses.
• Shipments involving significant amounts of radioactive material are required to have documentation, labels, and placards identifying their cargo as radioactive.

Learn more about transportation accidents

---

Occupational Accidents

• Radiation sources are found in a wide range of settings such as health care facilities, research institutions, and manufacturing operations.
• Accidents can occur if the radiation source is used improperly, or if safety controls fail.

Learn more about occupational accidents

 

 

Preparing for a radiological emergency isn’t so very different from what you would do for any other type of disaster.  You want to be prepared to shelter-in-place, stay out of harm’s way, and keep up with advisories.  Steps that are explained on PHE’s  Radiation Emergencies - What should I do?  webpage.

 

Get Inside

Get Inside

In a radiation emergency you may be asked to get inside a building and take shelter for a period of time.

• This action is called "sheltering in place."
• Get to the middle of the building or a basement, away from doors and windows.
• Bring pets inside.

Learn about sheltering options

---

Stay Inside

Stay Inside

Staying inside will reduce your exposure to radiation.

• Close and lock windows and doors.
• Take a shower or wipe exposed parts of your body with a damp cloth.
• Drink bottled water and eat food in sealed containers.

Learn what to do while taking shelter

---

Stay Tuned

Stay Tuned

Emergency officials are trained to respond to disaster situations and will provide specific actions to help keep people safe.

• Use radios, televisions, computers, mobile devices, and other tools to get the latest information.
• Emergency officials will provide information on where to go to get screened for contamination.

Learn how to stay informed

 

 

The goal of NPM2013 is to foster a culture of national preparedness, and to encourage everyone to plan and be prepared to deal with any disaster where they can go at least 72 hours without electricity, running water, local services, or access to a supermarket.

These are, of course, minimum goals.

 

Disruptions that accompany hurricanes, floods, pandemics, and yes . . . even radiological disasters  . .  can potentially last for days or even weeks, and so – if you are able to do so - being prepared for 10 days to 2 weeks makes a good deal of sense (see When 72 Hours Isn’t Enough).

While a radiological hazard may be far down your list of `probable’ threats, the common sense steps you take to prepare for any disaster will serve you well, even in a radiation emergency.  For more on `all hazards’ preparedness, I’d invite you to visit:

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

And you can use this link to read earlier NPM preparedness posts on this blog.

NPM13: When Evacuation Is The Better Part Of Valor

 

Colorado Floods 2013 – Credit http://www.nationalservice.gov

 

Note: This is day 21 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

 

# 7798

 

The floods this past week in Colorado are just the latest example of when events can quickly force thousands of people from their homes, often with little or no warning.  According to the Colorado Office of Emergency Management, as of yesterday nearly 6,000 people were under mandatory evacuation, over 16,000 homes had been damaged, and more than 1,800 have been destroyed. 

 

Last month, in NIFC Raises Wildfire Preparedness Level To 5 (Maximum), we looked at the mandatory evacuation of over 1,800 homes due to the 160-square-mile Beaver Creek Fire in Idaho.  And just two days ago, explosions and a massive fire at a chemical factory in Oklahoma City forced residents living nearby to abruptly leave their homes in the middle of the night.

The first choice for most people in any disaster it to try to shelter-in-place in their own homes. Home is familiar, home is comfortable, and home is where your processions are. So quite understandably, no one wants to leave home during an emergency if they can possibly avoid it. In fact, it can be such a traumatic decision that some people will risk everything to avoid evacuating.

 

But the following photo taken in Crystal Beach after Hurricane Ike in 2008 proves that staying home in the face of a flood, a hurricane, or other natural disaster can have deadly consequences.

Being able to leave in a hurry when an evacuation has been ordered means having a plan, a destination, and an emergency `to go’ kit or `BOB’ already equipped, and standing by.

 

In the vernacular, a `bug-out bag'  or `BOB’ is a bag of emergency supplies, ideally kept at the ready, that one can grab on the way out the door during an emergency.

My Bug-out-bag, Canteen, & Toiletry kit

Every hurricane season I go through my personal bug out bag, and replace flashlight and radio batteries from last year, and swap out older emergency rations for newer ones.

 

A BOB isn't supposed to be a survival kit, but rather, is supposed to provide the essentials one might need during the first 72 hours of a forced, and sometimes unexpected, evacuation.

 

It should contain food, water, any essential prescription medicines, copies of important papers (ID's, insurance, important Phone #s), a first aid kit, portable radio, flashlight, extra batteries, and ideally blankets and extra clothes.

 

While having to evacuate your home may seem like an unlikely event, every years hundreds of thousands of Americans are forced to do so.  Rivers spill their banks, dams break, brush fires rage out of control, even sudden industrial accidents can force evacuations.

 

And unlike with a hurricane, you won’t always have advance warning.

 

Ready.gov has the following advice on how to prepare for an evacuation.

Evacuating Yourself and Your Family

There may be conditions under which you will decide to get away or there may be situations when you are ordered to leave. Follow these guidelines for evacuation:

• Plan places where your family will meet, both within and outside of your immediate neighborhood. Use the Family Emergency Plan to decide these locations before a disaster.
• If you have a car, keep a full tank of gas in it if an evacuation seems likely. Keep a half tank of gas in it at all times in case of an unexpected need to evacuate. Gas stations may be closed during emergencies and unable to pump gas during power outages. Plan to take one car per family to reduce congestion and delay.
• Become familiar with alternate routes and other means of transportation out of your area. Choose several destinations in different directions so you have options in an emergency.
• Leave early enough to avoid being trapped by severe weather.
• Follow recommended evacuation routes. Do not take shortcuts; they may be blocked.
• Be alert for road hazards such as washed-out roads or bridges and downed power lines. Do not drive into flooded areas.
• If you do not have a car, plan how you will leave if you have to. Make arrangements with family, friends or your local government.
• Take your emergency supply kit unless you have reason to believe it has been contaminated.
• Listen to a battery-powered radio and follow local evacuation instructions.
• Take your pets with you, but understand that only service animals may be permitted in public shelters. Plan how you will care for your pets in an emergency.

Since I live in a hurricane evacuation zone, I have an emergency plan, a pre-arranged place to go, and my evac  kit (see Inside My New Bug Out Bag) packed and ready to go.

Of course, you’d be hard pressed to put everything for a family of four into one bag.  So each family member should have their own BOB.

Some items, like the radio, lights, and first aid kit needn’t be duplicated in each bag. 

I keep my BOB within arm’s reach of my first aid kit, and would hopefully be able to grab both, even in an emergency. 

On top of this, I keep a spare first aid kit in my car, along with an `overnight bag’, and I have a third duffle bag packed with extra supplies, that I would hopefully be able to throw in the car as well.

 

But if I had to, I could easily go 72 hours on just my bug-out bag alone.

 

o these things to give me peace of mind and confidence that I’m ready to deal with just about any emergency that comes my way.

 

The truth is, preparing is easy.

 

It’s worrying that is hard.

NPM13: Kids & Disaster Preparedness

Note: This is day 19 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

# 7790

 

Disaster preparedness messaging for youngsters has come a long way since I was kid, as evidenced by the Ready.gov/Kids website in the graphic at the top of this page.   In the `bad old days’ of the 1950s and 1960s, preparedness meant `duck & cover’ drills, and a likely futile attempts to survive an atomic attack.

 

One of the more famous (and least graphic) of these early preparedness PSAs was Bert The Turtle telling kids how to `Duck & Cover’.  

 

Starker messaging included PSAs like  TARGET YOU, and the equally bleak Survival Under Atomic Attack. If it seems unlikely to you that these sorts of films were routinely presented to school children, I can assure you they were – the fear of imminent nuclear annihilation was rampant back then. 

 

Today, our concerns are focused on natural disasters, like floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes.  Scenarios that are far more survivable than an all-out nuclear attack, and that can be approached in a more `kid-friendly’ fashion.

 

But the core message – that disasters happen, and we should all be prepared – hasn’t changed.

 

Ready.gov’s kid friendly preparedness page contains games and activities for kids along with  information for parents and educators on how to teach simple, but effective preparedness lessons.  

 

Many states have their own preparedness site for kids, such as Florida Division of Emergency Management’s Kids Get A Plan page, which provides an excellent interactive introduction to preparedness for children. 

 

You’ll find audio-stories on topics like lightning safety, wildfires, and hurricanes along with interactive games like the one below, that teaches kids what items are needed for a disaster supply kit.

And to go along with these activities for kids, the site provides guides for parents and teachers to help them discuss these issues with kids.

 

Some of these stories and activities are geared for kids as young as 5 or 6, while others are aimed at slightly older children.

 

If you’ve got kids, or grandkids – and would like to introduce them to preparedness concepts without inducing undue trauma - this site is very much worth while checking out.

 

And for even more disaster preparedness for kids, you will also want to check out FEMA/Ready.gov’s  preparedness for kids website which I highlighted last September in NPM12: Preparedness For Kids

NPM13: Pandemic Planning Assumptions

Credit - HHS Interim Pre-Pandemic Planning Guidence: Community Strategy For Pandemic Influenza Mitigation In the United States.

 

Note: This is day 18 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

 

# 7783

 

 

The declassification this week of a 2009 Northern Command Pandemic Plan (see SciAm story Pandemic Flu Plan Predicts 30% of U.S. Could Fall Ill) has caught the attention of a number of news organizations and websites with its estimates that during a moderately severe pandemic 30% of the population could fall ill, 3 million could require hospitalization, and 2 million Americans could die.

 

Although a certain amount of surprise is registered in these media reports, these are roughly the same numbers that were being openly discussed by local, state, and federal agencies during the pandemic planning phase of 2006-2008.

In fact, in 2008, the HHS outlined their vision of the likely impact in the United States of a severe and a moderate pandemic (see A Tale Of Two Scenarios).   As you’ll see, the numbers of hospitalizations anticipated during a severe pandemic is quite a bit higher than the Northcom plan.

 

The HHS defined a severe pandemic as:

• An attack rate of 30% (90 million Americans sickened)
• 50% (45 million) requiring outpatient medical care
• 11% (9.9 million) requiring hospitalization
• 745,000 requiring mechanical ventilation
• 1.9 million deaths (2.1% fatality ratio)

A moderate (1958/68-like) pandemic is described as follows:

• An attack rate of 30% (90 million Americans sickened)
• 50% (45 million) requiring outpatient medical care
• .9% (865,000) requiring hospitalization
• 64,875 requiring mechanical ventilation
• 209,200 deaths (.23% fatality ratio)

 

In other words, while the number of people affected doesn't change, a severe pandemic is envisioned to be about 10 times worse than a moderate one.

 

Pandemics, like hurricanes, are measured on a five point scale, with a CAT 5 pandemic – as bad or worse than 1918 – at the top of the scale.  While there are many similarities between the hurricane and pandemic scales, there is one aspect where they differ greatly.

 

With Hurricanes, there are physical limitations that keep the storms from growing much stronger than 200 mph winds. Category 5 storms start at 156 MPH, and these storms are only capable of intensifying about 35% above that wind speed.

 

There are no such restraints on a severe pandemic. While a 2% CFR indicates a Cat 5 pandemic, so does a 5% or 10% CFR. Yet, the difference between the impact of these three CFRs would be enormous. Although the 1918 pandemic is often used as a model for the next severe pandemic, doctors and scientists generally admit that the Spanish Flu isn't the worst that nature could throw at us.

The thing about pandemics is, even after one starts, you never know how bad it is going to be until it is over.   And even then it can take years to sort our just how bad it really was.  Experts continue to wrestle with the toll of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. 

 

A pandemic can start out mild, and over time become more virulent – as did the 1918 H1N1 pandemic -  or it could look really serious at the start, but prove milder than expected (as we saw in 2009). 

 

While we can’t know when the next pandemic will arrive, or how bad it may be, we can prepare for a `reasonable-worst-case’ scenario – which  is probably somewhere on the order of the 1918 Spanish Flu.  To that end, the HHS has a number of pandemic planning toolkits available on their Flu.gov website.

 

Pandemic Flu 

The federal government cannot prepare for or respond to the challenge of a flu pandemic alone. Your community can develop strategies that reduce the impact and spread of pandemic flu.

Faith-Based & Community Organizations Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Checklist (PDF – 68.91 KB)

Lista de Preparacion para una Pandemia de Gripe Tanto para Organizaciones Comunitarias como Religiosas (PDF – 268 KB)

Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation (PDF – 10.3 MB)

Plan Now to Be Ready for the Next Flu Pandemic (PDF – 213.55 KB)

The Next Flu Pandemic: What to Expect (PDF – 226.83 KB) (excerpts below)

Their advice (and this is for before a pandemic threat becomes imminent).

 

Over the past six months I’ve written a number of pandemic preparedness blogs, including what the United States government is doing to prepare for a possible pandemic.  You can revisit these at the following links:

 

The Pandemic Preparedness Messaging Dilemma

Pandemic Planning For Business

CDC: Pandemic Planning Tips For Public Health Officials

H7N9 Preparedness: What The CDC Is Doing

 

Admittedly, we may not see another severe pandemic for years, or even decades. But since it is impossible to predict when the next one will occur, it makes sense to incorporate pandemic planning into your family, community or business disaster plans.  

Ready.gov offers the following basic advice for families and individuals.

 

Pandemic

Inspire others to act by being an example yourself, Pledge to Prepare & tell others about it!

You can prepare for an influenza pandemic now. You should know both the magnitude of what can happen during a pandemic outbreak and what actions you can take to help lessen the impact of an influenza pandemic on you and your family. This checklist will help you gather the information and resources you may need in case of a flu pandemic.

Plan for a Pandemic

• Store a two week supply of water and food. During a pandemic, if you cannot get to a store, or if stores are out of supplies, it will be important for you to have extra supplies on hand. This can be useful in other types of emergencies, such as power outages and disasters.
• Periodically check your regular prescription drugs to ensure a continuous supply in your home.
• Have any nonprescription drugs and other health supplies on hand, including pain relievers, stomach remedies, cough and cold medicines, fluids with electrolytes, and vitamins.
• Talk with family members and loved ones about how they would be cared for if they got sick, or what will be needed to care for them in your home.
• Volunteer with local groups to prepare and assist with emergency response.
• Get involved in your community as it works to prepare for an influenza pandemic.

NPM13: The Ethics Of Preparedness

Note: This is day 17 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

 

# 7781

 

Having spent most of my adult life as a prepper (see NPM13: The Making Of A Prepper), I admit I come away from viewing cable shows like Doomsday Preppers on the National Geographic Channel and Doomsday Bunkers on the Discovery Channel with a certain uneasiness.

 

The vivid doomsday scenarios and over-the-top preparations may make for entertaining TV, but they are hardly representative of the mainstream preparedness movement.

 

When FEMA, Ready.gov, and the American Red Cross encourage us to prepare for emergencies, they aren’t asking us to dig a bunker, acquire an arsenal, or stockpile 20 years worth of freeze dried foods.

 

They are hoping for a more reasoned response (see NPM12: Everyday Preppers).

 

But even if we are talking about a week or two worth of emergency supplies, there are some who view the idea that preparing – when others with limited financial means cannot - is somehow unfair, or even unethical.

 

A noble and egalitarian sounding idea, I suppose.

 

But the reality is that when more people are prepared before a crisis, fewer people will be competing for finite and sometimes slow-to-arrive emergency assistance in the days following a disaster.

 

And when you as an individual, family, or business are prepared, you are in a better position to offer help to friends, neighbors, relatives, or your community.

 

Which makes prepping not only ethical, but extremely practical as well.

 

And it isn’t just me saying that.

 

In October, 2008 I wrote a blog which highlighted the John's Hopkins Study entitled Ethics and Severe Pandemic Influenza: Maintaining Essential Functions through a Fair and Considered Response.

It included the following snippet from the summary provided by the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics.

 

. . .  individuals and families who can afford it should do their best to prepare for any disaster. The paper notes, the more initiative the general public exercises in stockpiling several weeks' worth of food, water, paper goods, batteries medicines, and other needed supplies, the less vulnerable they will be to a break in the supply chain.

It is important for leaders to communicate to the middle class and the wealthy that it is their responsibility to prepare for self-sufficiency in order to free up scarce supplies and allow first responders to direct their attention towards those too poor or vulnerable to prepare themselves.

 

 

While this may not have been the main thrust of this paper's message, it is a powerful component. One that bloggers such as myself have been trying to promote for several years.

 

As long as our supply chains are intact, grocery store shelves are full and capable of being restocked, and no major shortages exist it is not hoarding, selfish, or unethical to be stockpiling a reasonable amount of emergency supplies for you, your family, and others you might be able to assist during a disaster.

 

During a crisis, relief agencies will have their hands full trying to help those who were unable to prepare, or who lost their preps due to a disaster.

 

By being prepared in advance, you take some of that burden off these agencies, which will allow them to concentrate their efforts on helping those less able to help themselves.

 

And by being prepared, you are in a better position to help others as well.

 

And that’s a win-win situation. For you, your family, and your whole community.

 

While 72 hours is considered the minimum amount of  time for which you and your family should be prepared, there is nothing that says you shouldn’t strive to do better than that.

 

A week or more of emergency supplies (along with an emergency NWS radio, first aid kit, and a family disaster plan) is a laudable, and easily obtainable, goal.

 

Over the past decade, personal and community preparedness has become a national goal, promoted by many agencies, including::

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

 

For more preparedness information, you can search this blog  at this link.

It’s really the ethical thing to do.

NPM13: Your Daily Threat Assessment Briefing

Photo Credit- NOAA Know your Risk

 

Note: This is day 15 of National Preparedness Month.  Follow this year’s campaign on Twitter by searching for the #NPM or #NPM13 hash tag.

This month, as part of NPM13, I’ll be rerunning some updated  preparedness essays (like this one) , along with some new ones.

 

# 7774

 

 

Every day busy CEOs along with investors, emergency planners, politicians- and even the President of the United States - receive specialized Daily Intelligence briefings outlining current or anticipated threats, along with other vital information.

 

While you may not hold the fate of nations, a billion dollar portfolio, or a fortune 500 company in your hands you do have a need to know your risks if you want you and your family to be prepared for a disaster.

 

And those risks can, and do, change on a daily basis. Particularly those involving climate and weather.

 

Fortunately, the Internet makes it easy to create a short list of websites to visit each day (I do so early each morning) that in a few short minutes will give you an early warning of what threats might be expected in the next few days.

 

Depending where you live, and where your personal interests lie, you will probably want to customize your `daily briefing’.  But to get you started, a quick tour of mine.

 

Note: I quickly scan these websites for news, alerts, or forecasts of interest for my region.  I certainly don’t attempt to read them in depth each day.

 

First stop, NOAAWatch’s Daily Briefing which provides an excellent overview of the natural threats facing the nation.

More than just weather, this NOAA page also tracks other natural threats such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and wildfires.

 

My second stop is usually NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, which looks ahead as far as a week for areas that may expect severe weather.  At a glance I can see when, and where, weather trouble is expected.  This is particularly important during the spring and summer tornado season.

And during hurricane season, I also swing by the National Hurricane Center website each morning (and if there is an active storm, several times each day).

Although the sun remains unusually quiet, scientists believe we should hit the Solar Maximum over the next few months , so I also swing by Spaceweather.com or NOAA’s SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER for the latest on solar activity. 

And last, but not least, I visit the FEMA Blog to see what they are keeping an eye on.

 

During the day and overnight, I rely on NOAA WEATHER RADIO (NWR) and Twitter to follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NOAA and @CraigAtFEMA for real-time emergency alerts.

Like having an emergency kit and a first aid kit - having a weather radio is an important part of being prepared.

Of course, just knowing about the threats isn’t enough. You have to make use of that information.

 

To learn how to prepare as an individual, family, business owner, or community I would invite you to visit the following sites and use THIS LINK to access some of my recent preparedness blogs.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

 

While some people lie awake at night worrying about disasters, I’ve discovered that being prepared is the key to sleeping well.

Preparing is easy.

It’s worrying that’s hard.